SintokogioLtd (SILDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of SintokogioLtd $3.79, price $5.09, upside -25.5%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.44 – $7.30 · fair‑value band $2.59 – $5.17 · the $5.09 price screens above the $3.79 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Sintokogio,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells foundry, surface treatment, environmental, and material handling in Japan and internationally. The company engages in electronic core materials and ceramics businesses.
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Sintokogio,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells foundry, surface treatment, environmental, and material handling in Japan and internationally. The company engages in electronic core materials and ceramics businesses. It also offers green sand and v-process molding, chemically bonded sand, and aluminium casting products; dust collection, dust fire prevention system, exhaust gas treatment, and water treatment products; powder treatment products/ technologies, including granulation, kneading, pneumatic transport, dispersal, and powder solutions; and force sensors. In addition, it provides flooring and electric cylinders, as well as image processing measuring machine and calibration of measuring instruments and machines. The company was formerly known as Kubota Seisakusho, Ltd. and changed its name to Sintokogio,Ltd. in February 1960. Sintokogio,Ltd. was incorporated in 1934 and is headquartered in Nagoya, Japan.
Stock analysis
SintokogioLtd (SILDF) currently trades at $5.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.79, implying the stock looks roughly 34.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $6.72 per share, and 5 of the 12 models we run sit above the $5.09 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $1.40, and 7 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.59 (bear) to $5.17 (bull), the price of $5.09 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
SintokogioLtd reported revenue of ¥177B in FY2026 versus ¥99.2B in FY2022, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was −¥16.4B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $267M · P/E ratio 14.1 · EPS (TTM) $0.3600 · Dividend yield 5.9% · Net margin −9.2% · Return on equity −12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7% · Operating margin 3.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −25%, SILDF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.59Fair Value $3.79Bull $5.17
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.5% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.1% (2021) → 2.2% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+52.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +49.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 826 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−26% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.35× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.1× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF0.7× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)41· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)83· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SintokogioLtd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SILDF
Frequently asked questions
Is SintokogioLtd (SILDF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.79 versus a price of $5.09, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SILDF?
Our model-based fair value for SintokogioLtd is $3.79 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.09.
What is the quality score of SILDF?
SintokogioLtd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SintokogioLtd (SILDF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.79 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.59, optimistic scenario $5.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SintokogioLtd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.79, about −25% upside versus a price of $5.09 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.59, optimistic scenario $5.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SintokogioLtd (SILDF)?
SintokogioLtd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥176B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does SintokogioLtd pay a dividend?
SintokogioLtd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.93% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into SintokogioLtd (SILDF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SintokogioLtd would have to grow free cash flow by +52.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SILDF use?
Our models discount SintokogioLtd at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SintokogioLtd that is +52.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SintokogioLtd (SILDF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SintokogioLtd grew +16.5 % a year. The price currently implies +52.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SintokogioLtd (SILDF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SintokogioLtd (+52.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SintokogioLtd (SILDF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.86 %: that much free cash flow SintokogioLtd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SintokogioLtd (SILDF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SintokogioLtd it is $3.79 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $5.09. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SintokogioLtd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SILDF trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.09, fair value $3.79, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SILDF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.79). For SintokogioLtd the two are $1.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SintokogioLtd worth?
The market values SintokogioLtd at about $267M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $5.09; our models calculate a fair value of $3.79 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SILDF?
Our models span a range for SintokogioLtd: cautious scenario $2.59, base $3.79, optimistic $5.17 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $5.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SILDF?
SintokogioLtd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.79 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of SintokogioLtd (SILDF)?
Balance-sheet figures for SintokogioLtd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −12.8%, debt of 0.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SILDF from its 52-week high?
SintokogioLtd trades at $5.09, at its 52-week high of $5.09 and 9% above the low of $4.66 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.79 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SintokogioLtd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SintokogioLtd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $5.09, calculated fair value $3.79 (−25%), Quality Score 46/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SILDF calculated?
We run SintokogioLtd through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.79, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. SintokogioLtd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SintokogioLtd (SILDF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $5.09. Our model-based fair value is $3.79, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SintokogioLtd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($2.59 to $5.17) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of SintokogioLtd (SILDF) come from?
Earnings per share at SintokogioLtd grew +8.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.4 %, EBIT margin −5.1 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +7.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of SintokogioLtd
How large is the market capitalisation of SintokogioLtd (SILDF)?
The market capitalisation of SintokogioLtd is $267M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of SintokogioLtd (SILDF)?
Earnings per share at SintokogioLtd are $0.3600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SintokogioLtd (SILDF)?
The dividend yield of SintokogioLtd is 5.9% (payout 83.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SintokogioLtd (SILDF)?
The net margin of SintokogioLtd is −9.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SintokogioLtd (SILDF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SintokogioLtd is −12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SintokogioLtd (SILDF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SintokogioLtd is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SintokogioLtd (SILDF)?
The operating margin of SintokogioLtd is 3.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SintokogioLtd (SILDF)?
Revenue at SintokogioLtd is growing +8.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SintokogioLtd (SILDF)?
Earnings per share at SintokogioLtd are growing +317% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SintokogioLtd (SILDF) carry?
The net debt of SintokogioLtd is ¥9.8B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 26.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026