Simonds Group (SIO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$54.0M
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +7.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 59% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0800). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0900 – A$0.6151 · fair‑value band A$0.0500 – A$0.0800 · the A$0.1450 price screens above the A$0.0600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Simonds Group (SIO) currently trades at A$0.1450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0600, implying the stock looks roughly 58.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Simonds Group generated revenue of A$710M at a net margin of 0.3%. Revenue grew 14.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$5.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0500 (bear case) to A$0.0800 (bull case); at A$0.1450, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at -59%, SIO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (A$0.9700) versus Earnings-Based (A$0.0300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Simonds Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, designs, constructs, and sells residential dwellings in Australia. It operates through Residential Construction and Development segments. The Residential Construction segment provides contracts for residential home construction, speculative home building, and building display home inventory.
Full company description
Simonds Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, designs, constructs, and sells residential dwellings in Australia. It operates through Residential Construction and Development segments. The Residential Construction segment provides contracts for residential home construction, speculative home building, and building display home inventory. Its Development segment develops and sells land. The company also offers single and double-story detached homes, medium-density developments, and dual occupancy projects. In addition, the company provides payroll, asset, and intellectual property services. The company serves metropolitan areas of state capitals and large regional cities. The company was formerly known as Simonds Homes Holdings Pty Ltd and changed its name to Simonds Group Limited in September 2014. Simonds Group Limited was founded in 1949 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Simonds Group reported revenue of A$666M in FY2025 versus A$662M in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.0M in FY2025, compounding −31.8%/yr from FY2021.
SIO screens 59% overvalued. Compare with D.R. Horton, Inc →
Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $149.39 | $214.93 | +44% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $124.75 | $193.56 | +55% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $83.89 | $146.58 | +75% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,479 | $7,821 | +21% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $150.76 | $225.76 | +50% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.13 | $144.47 | +100% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $228.65 | $209.51 | -8% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $73.83 | $104.26 | +41% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $82.70 | $75.12 | -9% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $569.16 | $421.10 | -26% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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