Simonds Group Ltd (SIO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Simonds Group Ltd A$0.88, price A$0.17, upside +417.7%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Simonds Group Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0900 – A$0.6005 · fair‑value band A$0.6200 – A$1.14 · the A$0.1700 price screens below the A$0.8800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Simonds Group in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Simonds Group is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Simonds Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, designs, constructs, and sells residential dwellings in Australia. It operates through Residential Construction and Development segments. The Residential Construction segment provides contracts for residential home construction, speculative home building, and building display home inventory.
Show more
Simonds Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, designs, constructs, and sells residential dwellings in Australia. It operates through Residential Construction and Development segments. The Residential Construction segment provides contracts for residential home construction, speculative home building, and building display home inventory. Its Development segment develops and sells land. The company also offers single and double-story detached homes, medium-density developments, and dual occupancy projects. In addition, the company provides payroll, asset, and intellectual property services. The company serves metropolitan areas of state capitals and large regional cities. The company was formerly known as Simonds Homes Holdings Pty Ltd and changed its name to Simonds Group Limited in September 2014. Simonds Group Limited was founded in 1949 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
Simonds Group Ltd (SIO) currently trades at A$0.1700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.8800, implying the stock looks roughly 80.7% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$1.10 per share, and 15 of the 22 models we run sit above the A$0.1700 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at A$1.07, and 7 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.6200 (bear) to A$1.14 (bull), the price of A$0.1700 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Simonds Group Ltd reported revenue of A$666M in FY2025 versus A$662M in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.0M in FY2025, compounding −31.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$61.7M (≈ $43.0M) · P/E ratio 17.0 · P/S ratio 0.03 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0100 · Net margin 0.2% · Return on equity 12.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.4% · Operating margin 1.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 418%, SIO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.6200Fair Value A$0.8800Bull A$1.14
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0100 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.6% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−40.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−40.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−40.3% vs −25.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Residential Construction · 61 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.7% · Above median
Return on assets2.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)1.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)17.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.19× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Simonds Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SIO
Frequently asked questions
Is Simonds Group Ltd (SIO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.8800 versus a price of A$0.1700, about +418% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SIO?
Our model-based fair value for Simonds Group Ltd is A$0.8800 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1700.
What is the quality score of SIO?
Simonds Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Simonds Group Ltd (SIO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.8800 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.6200, optimistic scenario A$1.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Simonds Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.8800, about +418% upside versus a price of A$0.1700 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.6200, optimistic scenario A$1.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Simonds Group Ltd (SIO)?
Simonds Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$710M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Simonds Group Ltd (SIO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Simonds Group Ltd it is A$0.8800 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$0.1700. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Simonds Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SIO trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.1700, fair value A$0.8800, a gap of about +418% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SIO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1700); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.8800). For Simonds Group Ltd the two are A$0.7100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Simonds Group Ltd worth?
The market values Simonds Group Ltd at about A$61.7M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1700; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.8800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SIO?
Our models span a range for Simonds Group Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.6200, base A$0.8800, optimistic A$1.14 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$0.1700). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SIO?
Simonds Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.8800 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 2.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Simonds Group Ltd (SIO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Simonds Group Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.7%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SIO from its 52-week high?
Simonds Group Ltd trades at A$0.1700, at its 52-week high of A$0.1700 and 48% above the low of A$0.1150 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.8800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Simonds Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value D.R. Horton, Inc, PulteGroup, Inc, Lennar Corporation, NVR, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Simonds Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$0.1700, calculated fair value A$0.8800 (+418%), Quality Score 52/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SIO calculated?
We run Simonds Group Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.8800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Simonds Group Ltd currently trades 81 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Simonds Group Ltd (SIO)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was A$0.1700. Our model-based fair value is A$0.8800, about +418% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Simonds Group Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.6200). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (A$0.6200 to A$1.14) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Simonds Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Simonds Group Ltd (SIO)?
The market capitalisation of Simonds Group Ltd is A$61.7M (≈ $43.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Simonds Group Ltd (SIO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Simonds Group Ltd is 0.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Simonds Group Ltd (SIO)?
Earnings per share at Simonds Group Ltd are A$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Simonds Group Ltd (SIO)?
The net margin of Simonds Group Ltd is 0.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Simonds Group Ltd (SIO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Simonds Group Ltd is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Simonds Group Ltd (SIO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Simonds Group Ltd is −0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Simonds Group Ltd (SIO)?
The operating margin of Simonds Group Ltd is 1.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Simonds Group Ltd (SIO)?
Revenue at Simonds Group Ltd is growing +14.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Simonds Group Ltd (SIO)?
Earnings per share at Simonds Group Ltd are growing +60.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Simonds Group Ltd (SIO) generate?
The free cash flow of Simonds Group Ltd is A$37.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Simonds Group Ltd (SIO) hold?
Simonds Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$5.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Simonds Group Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Simonds Group Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
