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SJM Holdings (SJMHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of SJM Holdings $0.17, price $0.19, upside -10.5%, quality 32 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
SJM Holdings
SJMHF · USWeak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.
!Fair value $0.1700 · Overvalued (−10.5%)
!Quality 32/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +32.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -1.5% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 17/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $0.0500 to $0.3400
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1800 – $1.46 · fair‑value band $0.0500 – $0.3400 · the $0.1900 price screens above the $0.1700 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
SJM Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, owns, develops, and operates casinos and integrated entertainment resorts in Macau. It operates through Gaming Operations; and Hotel, Catering, Retail and Leasing Operations segments. The Gaming Operations segment is involved in the rolling, non-rolling, and electronic game gaming operations.
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SJM Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, owns, develops, and operates casinos and integrated entertainment resorts in Macau. It operates through Gaming Operations; and Hotel, Catering, Retail and Leasing Operations segments. The Gaming Operations segment is involved in the rolling, non-rolling, and electronic game gaming operations. The Hotel, Catering, Retail, and Leasing Operations segment operates and manages a hotel; and engages in the catering, leasing, retail, and related activities. It offers marketing and promotion; property development preparation; casino operations management; dredging, customer, retail, human resources and project management; shopping mall management; food and beverage; as well as treasury and hospitality services. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. SJM Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Sociedade de Turismo e Diversões de Macau, S.A.
Stock analysis
SJM Holdings (SJMHF) currently trades at $0.1900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1700, 10.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $0.3300 per share, and 3 of the 7 models we run sit above the $0.1900 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $0.1300, and 4 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.0500 (bear) to $0.3400 (bull), the price of $0.1900 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
SJM Holdings reported revenue of HK$16.7B in FY2025 versus HK$5.9B in FY2021, a compound +29.8%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$429M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.6B · P/S ratio 0.06 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0100 · Net margin −2.6% · Return on equity −2.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.6% · Operating margin 3.1% · Revenue (TTM) HK$28.2B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at −11%, SJMHF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0500
Fair Value $0.1700
Bull $0.3400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$0.0100
$0.1400
$0.3100
71
Growth DCF
$0.0100
$0.1300
$0.2800
70
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
n/a
$0.1000
69
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.0100
$0.1400
$0.3100
71
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
n/a
$0.1000
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.0600
$0.2900
$0.5400
69
10Y Revenue Exit
n/a
$0.0200
>$0.0800
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
$0.0400
$0.2100
$0.4300
62
Multiples
EV/EBIT
n/a
n/a
$0.0800
61
EV/EBITDA
$0.1600
$0.3300
$0.4900
64
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.1200
$0.1600
$0.2400
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.0100
$0.1300
$0.2800
70
Rev-Margin DCF
n/a
n/a
$0.1000
69
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
32/100
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Profitability
18
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
18
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
31
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
9
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
78
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
73
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
62
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+61.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −5.8% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−79.6% (2020) → 6.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in HKD, Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.6% a year for the price and +10.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+52.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.2%
SJMHF screens overvalued: fair value 11% below the price. Compare with Las Vegas Sands Corp →
Compare SJM Holdings with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Resorts & Casinos · 66 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Gambling
Similar stocks
10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS | $38.78 | $55.26 | +42% |
| Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 | HK$31.70 | HK$46.74 | +47% |
| Sands China Ltd 1928 | HK$11.91 | HK$18.87 | +58% |
| Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN | $81.12 | $147.69 | +82% |
| MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, MGM | $30.47 | $18.04 | −41% |
| Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR | $29.59 | $80.89 | +173% |
| Genting Singapore Limited G13 | 0.6150 SGD | 0.5600 SGD | −9% |
| Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR | $50.76 | $31.15 | −39% |
| Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD | $71.23 | $130.75 | +84% |
| Vail Resorts, Inc MTN | $136.11 | $152.57 | +12% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is SJM Holdings (SJMHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.1700 versus a price of $0.1900, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SJMHF?
Our model-based fair value for SJM Holdings is $0.1700 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.1900.
What is the quality score of SJMHF?
SJM Holdings has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SJM Holdings (SJMHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.1700 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0500, optimistic scenario $0.3400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SJM Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.1700, about −11% upside versus a price of $0.1900 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.0500, optimistic scenario $0.3400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SJM Holdings (SJMHF)?
SJM Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$28.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into SJM Holdings (SJMHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SJM Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +33.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +32.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SJMHF use?
Our models discount SJM Holdings at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.69, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SJM Holdings that is +33.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SJM Holdings (SJMHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SJM Holdings grew +32.2 % a year. The price currently implies +33.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SJM Holdings (SJMHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SJM Holdings (+33.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SJM Holdings (SJMHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.70 %: that much free cash flow SJM Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SJM Holdings (SJMHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SJM Holdings it is $0.1700 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.1900. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SJM Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SJMHF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.1900, fair value $0.1700, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SJMHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.1900); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.1700). For SJM Holdings the two are $0.0200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SJM Holdings worth?
The market values SJM Holdings at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.1900; our models calculate a fair value of $0.1700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SJMHF?
Our models span a range for SJM Holdings: cautious scenario $0.0500, base $0.1700, optimistic $0.3400 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.1900). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of SJMHF?
The PEG ratio of SJM Holdings is 0.06 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of SJM Holdings (SJMHF)?
Balance-sheet figures for SJM Holdings (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −2.6%, debt of 1.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SJMHF from its 52-week high?
SJM Holdings trades at $0.1900, about 50% below its 52-week high of $0.3800 and 6% above the low of $0.1800 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.1700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SJM Holdings?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Sands China Ltd, Wynn Resorts, Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SJM Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.1900, calculated fair value $0.1700 (−11%), Quality Score 32/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SJMHF calculated?
We run SJM Holdings through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.1700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. SJM Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SJM Holdings (SJMHF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.1900. Our model-based fair value is $0.1700, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SJM Holdings right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($0.0500 to $0.3400). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of SJM Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of SJM Holdings (SJMHF)?
The market capitalisation of SJM Holdings is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SJM Holdings (SJMHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SJM Holdings is 0.06 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SJM Holdings (SJMHF)?
Earnings per share at SJM Holdings are $−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of SJM Holdings (SJMHF)?
The net margin of SJM Holdings is −2.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SJM Holdings (SJMHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SJM Holdings is −2.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SJM Holdings (SJMHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SJM Holdings is −2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SJM Holdings (SJMHF)?
The operating margin of SJM Holdings is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SJM Holdings (SJMHF)?
Revenue at SJM Holdings is growing −9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +61.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SJM Holdings (SJMHF)?
Earnings per share at SJM Holdings are growing +13.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SJM Holdings (SJMHF) carry?
The net debt of SJM Holdings is HK$28.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 47.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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