SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of SJM Holdings Ltd $0.71, price $0.74, upside -4.1%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.6900 – $4.39 · fair‑value band $0.2200 – $1.43 · the $0.7400 price screens above the $0.7100 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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SJM Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, owns, develops, and operates casinos and integrated entertainment resorts in Macau. It operates through Gaming Operations; and Hotel, Catering, Retail and Leasing Operations segments. The Gaming Operations segment is involved in the rolling, non-rolling, and electronic game gaming operations.
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SJM Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, owns, develops, and operates casinos and integrated entertainment resorts in Macau. It operates through Gaming Operations; and Hotel, Catering, Retail and Leasing Operations segments. The Gaming Operations segment is involved in the rolling, non-rolling, and electronic game gaming operations. The Hotel, Catering, Retail, and Leasing Operations segment operates and manages a hotel; and engages in the catering, leasing, retail, and related activities. It offers marketing and promotion; property development preparation; casino operations management; dredging, customer, retail, human resources and project management; shopping mall management; food and beverage; as well as treasury and hospitality services. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. SJM Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Sociedade de Turismo e Diversões de Macau, S.A.
Stock analysis
SJM Holdings Ltd ADR (SJMHY) currently trades at $0.7400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.7100, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $1.30 per share, and 3 of the 7 models we run sit above the $0.7400 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $0.5600, and 4 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.2200 (bear) to $1.43 (bull), the price of $0.7400 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
SJM Holdings Ltd ADR reported revenue of HK$16.7B in FY2025 versus HK$10.1B in FY2021, a compound +13.5%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$428M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.5B · P/S ratio 0.05 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0300 · Net margin −2.6% · Return on equity −2.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.6% · Operating margin 3.1% · Revenue (TTM) HK$28.2B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at −4%, SJMHY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.2200Fair Value $0.7100Bull $1.43
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −5.8% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−43.9% (2020) → 6.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in HKD, Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.5% a year for the price and +10.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Resorts & Casinos · 67 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+106.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−1.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.51× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
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Is SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.7100 versus a price of $0.7400, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SJMHY?
Our model-based fair value for SJM Holdings Ltd ADR is $0.7100 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.7400.
What is the quality score of SJMHY?
SJM Holdings Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.7100 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2200, optimistic scenario $1.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SJM Holdings Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.7100, about −4% upside versus a price of $0.7400 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $0.2200, optimistic scenario $1.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY)?
SJM Holdings Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$28.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SJM Holdings Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +33.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SJMHY use?
Our models discount SJM Holdings Ltd ADR at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.69, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SJM Holdings Ltd ADR that is +33.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SJM Holdings Ltd ADR grew +17.3 % a year. The price currently implies +33.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SJM Holdings Ltd ADR (+33.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.86 %: that much free cash flow SJM Holdings Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SJM Holdings Ltd ADR it is $0.7100 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.7400. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SJM Holdings Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SJMHY trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.7400, fair value $0.7100, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SJMHY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.7400); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.7100). For SJM Holdings Ltd ADR the two are $0.0300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SJM Holdings Ltd ADR worth?
The market values SJM Holdings Ltd ADR at about $1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.7400; our models calculate a fair value of $0.7100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SJMHY?
Our models span a range for SJM Holdings Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $0.2200, base $0.7100, optimistic $1.43 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.7400). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of SJMHY?
The PEG ratio of SJM Holdings Ltd ADR is 0.07 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY)?
Balance-sheet figures for SJM Holdings Ltd ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −2.6%, debt of 1.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SJMHY from its 52-week high?
SJM Holdings Ltd ADR trades at $0.7400, about 53% below its 52-week high of $1.59 and 7% above the low of $0.6900 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.7100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SJM Holdings Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Sands China Ltd, Wynn Resorts, Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SJM Holdings Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.7400, calculated fair value $0.7100 (−4%), Quality Score 33/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SJMHY calculated?
We run SJM Holdings Ltd ADR through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.7100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. SJM Holdings Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.7400. Our model-based fair value is $0.7100, about −4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SJM Holdings Ltd ADR right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($0.2200 to $1.43). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of SJM Holdings Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY)?
The market capitalisation of SJM Holdings Ltd ADR is $1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SJM Holdings Ltd ADR is 0.05 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY)?
Earnings per share at SJM Holdings Ltd ADR are $−0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY)?
The net margin of SJM Holdings Ltd ADR is −2.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SJM Holdings Ltd ADR is −2.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SJM Holdings Ltd ADR is −2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY)?
The operating margin of SJM Holdings Ltd ADR is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY)?
Revenue at SJM Holdings Ltd ADR is growing −9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +61.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY)?
Earnings per share at SJM Holdings Ltd ADR are growing +13.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMHY) carry?
The net debt of SJM Holdings Ltd ADR is HK$28.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 47.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026