Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Samudera Indonesia Tbk is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, provides shipping, ports, logistics, and services in Indonesia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, India, and internationally. The company operates through Shipping and agency, Logistics and ports, and Others segments.
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PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, provides shipping, ports, logistics, and services in Indonesia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, India, and internationally. The company operates through Shipping and agency, Logistics and ports, and Others segments. It is involved in shipping services that includes liner and feeder services; fleet of vessels, including bulk carriers, LNG, and gas and chemical tankers; offshore support, salvage, and underwater works; bunker supply; and project-related shipping services to the oil and gas industry. The company also engages in crew management, ship management, shipping agency services, and docking space, ship repair, new construction, and fabrication of marine and industrial components. The company was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Samudera Indonesia Tangguh.
Stock analysis
Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR) currently trades at 392.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 523.15 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 25.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 1,162 IDR per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the 392.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 166.06 IDR, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 423.64 IDR (bear) to 692.53 IDR (bull), the price of 392.00 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Samudera Indonesia Tbk reported revenue of $792M in FY2025 versus $673M in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was $51.4M in FY2025, compounding −22.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.4T IDR (≈ $642M) · P/E ratio 7.2 · P/S ratio 0.47 · EPS (TTM) 54.50 IDR · Net margin 6.5% · Return on equity 9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.2% · Operating margin 9.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 43% fair-value upside, at 33%, SMDR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 423.64 IDRFair Value 523.15 IDRBull 692.53 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (37.90 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest YoY
+7.4%
Revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.7%
Revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
Revenue growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−27.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−18.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend, before any change in valuation.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: last 5 vs last 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−18.0% vs 15.4%, slowing
Share of sales kept as operating profit ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5.1% (2019) → 11.4% (2025) · rising
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 227 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Samudera Indonesia Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMDR
Frequently asked questions
Is Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 523.15 IDR versus a price of 392.00 IDR, about +33% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SMDR?
Our model-based fair value for Samudera Indonesia Tbk is 523.15 IDR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 392.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of SMDR?
Samudera Indonesia Tbk has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 523.15 IDR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 423.64 IDR, optimistic scenario 692.53 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Samudera Indonesia Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 523.15 IDR, about +33% upside versus a price of 392.00 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 423.64 IDR, optimistic scenario 692.53 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
Samudera Indonesia Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $805M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Samudera Indonesia Tbk it is 523.15 IDR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 392.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Samudera Indonesia Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, SMDR trades below its calculated fair value: price 392.00 IDR, fair value 523.15 IDR, a gap of about +33% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMDR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (392.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (523.15 IDR). For Samudera Indonesia Tbk the two are 131.15 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Samudera Indonesia Tbk worth?
The market values Samudera Indonesia Tbk at about 6.4T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 392.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 523.15 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMDR?
Our models span a range for Samudera Indonesia Tbk: cautious scenario 423.64 IDR, base 523.15 IDR, optimistic 692.53 IDR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 392.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SMDR?
Samudera Indonesia Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.2 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 523.15 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 2.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Samudera Indonesia Tbk (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 9.2%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMDR from its 52-week high?
Samudera Indonesia Tbk trades at 392.00 IDR, about 17% below its 52-week high of 474.00 IDR and 57% above the low of 250.00 IDR (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 523.15 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Samudera Indonesia Tbk?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S, 532921, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Samudera Indonesia Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 392.00 IDR, calculated fair value 523.15 IDR (+33%), Quality Score 58/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMDR calculated?
We run Samudera Indonesia Tbk through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 523.15 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Samudera Indonesia Tbk currently trades 33 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Samudera Indonesia Tbk right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (423.64 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR) come from?
Earnings per share at Samudera Indonesia Tbk grew +19.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.0 %, EBIT margin +7.7 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Samudera Indonesia Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
The market capitalisation of Samudera Indonesia Tbk is 6.4T IDR (≈ $642M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Samudera Indonesia Tbk is 0.47 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
Earnings per share at Samudera Indonesia Tbk are 54.50 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
The net margin of Samudera Indonesia Tbk is 6.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Samudera Indonesia Tbk is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Samudera Indonesia Tbk is 14.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
The operating margin of Samudera Indonesia Tbk is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
Revenue at Samudera Indonesia Tbk is growing +1.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
Earnings per share at Samudera Indonesia Tbk are growing +111% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR) generate?
The free cash flow of Samudera Indonesia Tbk is $69.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR) carry?
The net debt of Samudera Indonesia Tbk is $168M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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