Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 27, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Samudera Indonesia Tbk stock IDR 380, price IDR 368, upside +3.2%, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?Yes
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 75.58 IDR – 615.73 IDR · fair‑value band 282.00 IDR – 523.71 IDR · the 368.00 IDR price screens below the 379.80 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 28, 2026.
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PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, provides shipping, ports, logistics, and services in Indonesia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, India, and internationally. The company operates through Shipping and agency, Logistics and ports, and Others segments.
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It is involved in shipping services that includes liner and feeder services; fleet of vessels, including bulk carriers, LNG, and gas and chemical tankers; offshore support, salvage, and underwater works; bunker supply; and project-related shipping services to the oil and gas industry.
The company also engages in crew management, ship management, shipping agency services, and docking space, ship repair, new construction, and fabrication of marine and industrial components. The company was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.
PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Samudera Indonesia Tangguh.
Stock analysis
Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR) currently trades at 368.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 379.80 IDR, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 997.13 IDR per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the 368.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 61.87 IDR, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 282.00 IDR (bear) to 523.71 IDR (bull), the price of 368.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Samudera Indonesia Tbk reported revenue of $792M in FY2025 versus $673M in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was $51.4M in FY2025, compounding −22.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.0T IDR (≈ $334M) Small · P/E ratio 7.3 · P/S ratio 0.47 · EPS (TTM) 50.61 IDR · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 6.5% · Return on equity 10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 56% fair-value upside, at 3%, SMDR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear282.00 IDRFair Value 379.80 IDRBull523.71 IDR
Price 368.00 IDR · Upside +3.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (41.74 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.8% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−27.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−14.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−18.0% vs 15.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 11%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−28.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −30.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 224 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside+3.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.3% · Above median
Return on assets5.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)10.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)12.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)20.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Samudera Indonesia Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMDR
Frequently asked questions
Is Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 379.80 IDR versus a price of 368.00 IDR, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SMDR?
Our model-based fair value for Samudera Indonesia Tbk is 379.80 IDR (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 368.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of SMDR?
Samudera Indonesia Tbk has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 379.80 IDR (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 282.00 IDR, optimistic scenario 523.71 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Samudera Indonesia Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 379.80 IDR, about +3% upside versus a price of 368.00 IDR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 282.00 IDR, optimistic scenario 523.71 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
Samudera Indonesia Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $844M (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
Does Samudera Indonesia Tbk pay a dividend?
Samudera Indonesia Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of 3.08% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Samudera Indonesia Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by -28.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.0 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SMDR use?
Our models discount Samudera Indonesia Tbk at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Samudera Indonesia Tbk that is -28.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Samudera Indonesia Tbk grew +10.0 % a year. The price currently implies -28.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Samudera Indonesia Tbk (-28.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.71 %: that much free cash flow Samudera Indonesia Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Samudera Indonesia Tbk it is 379.80 IDR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of 368.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Samudera Indonesia Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, SMDR trades below its calculated fair value: price 368.00 IDR, fair value 379.80 IDR, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMDR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (368.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (379.80 IDR). For Samudera Indonesia Tbk the two are 11.80 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Samudera Indonesia Tbk worth?
The market values Samudera Indonesia Tbk at about 6.0T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is 368.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 379.80 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMDR?
Our models span a range for Samudera Indonesia Tbk: cautious scenario 282.00 IDR, base 379.80 IDR, optimistic 523.71 IDR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price 368.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SMDR?
Samudera Indonesia Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.3 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 379.80 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 2.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Samudera Indonesia Tbk (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 10.3%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMDR from its 52-week high?
Samudera Indonesia Tbk trades at 368.00 IDR, about 15% below its 52-week high of 432.35 IDR and 47% above the low of 250.92 IDR (as of Oct 27, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 379.80 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Samudera Indonesia Tbk?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Samudera Indonesia Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price 368.00 IDR, calculated fair value 379.80 IDR (+3%), Quality Score 58/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMDR calculated?
We run Samudera Indonesia Tbk through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 379.80 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Samudera Indonesia Tbk currently trades 3 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
The closing price on Oct 27, 2026 was 368.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 379.80 IDR, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Samudera Indonesia Tbk right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (282.00 IDR to 523.71 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR) come from?
Earnings per share at Samudera Indonesia Tbk grew +19.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.0 %, EBIT margin +7.7 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Samudera Indonesia Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
The market capitalisation of Samudera Indonesia Tbk is 6.0T IDR (≈ $334M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Samudera Indonesia Tbk is 0.47 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
Earnings per share at Samudera Indonesia Tbk are 50.61 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
The dividend yield of Samudera Indonesia Tbk is 3.1% (payout 22.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
The net margin of Samudera Indonesia Tbk is 6.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Samudera Indonesia Tbk is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Samudera Indonesia Tbk is 14.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
The operating margin of Samudera Indonesia Tbk is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
Revenue at Samudera Indonesia Tbk is growing +20.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR)?
Earnings per share at Samudera Indonesia Tbk are growing +62.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR) carry?
The net debt of Samudera Indonesia Tbk is $168M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 28, 2026