Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. stock $12.85, price $9.00, upside +42.8%, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.10 – $12.45 · fair‑value band $6.72 – $22.25 · the $9.00 price screens below the $12.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. engages in forestry business in Japan, the United States, Australia, China, Indonesia, New Zealand, and internationally.
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It operates through the Timber Building Materials Business; Housing Business; Construction and Real Estate Business; and Resources and Environment Business segments.
The Timber Building Materials Business segment purchases, manufactures, processes, and sells timber, including logs, chips, timber, laminated timber, and building materials, consisting of plywood, fiberboard, processed wood composite materials, ceramic building materials, metal building materials, and housing equipment.
The Housing Business segment is involved in the contracting, after-sales maintenance, and renovation of construction work for single-family homes and apartment complexes, sales of condominiums, real estate development, leasing, management, buying and selling, and brokerage of real estate, contracting of external structures and landscaping work for housing, urban greening business, CAD, and site surveys.
The Construction and Real Estate Business segment sells overseas condominiums, constructs single-family homes, develops housing complexes and commercial complexes, and provides contracting for medium- to large-scale construction work.
The Resources and Environment Business segment engages in the renewable energy business, forest resource business. The company was founded in 1691 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.
Stock analysis
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF) currently trades at $9.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.85, implying the stock looks roughly 30% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $21.86 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the $9.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.36, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $6.72 (bear) to $22.25 (bull), the price of $9.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. reported revenue of ¥2.3T in FY2026 versus ¥1.4T in FY2022, a compound +13.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥107B in FY2026, compounding +5.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $5.5B Mid · P/E ratio 10.0 · P/S ratio 0.47 · EPS (TTM) $0.9000 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 4.7% · Return on equity 10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at 43%, SMFRF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$6.72Fair Value $12.85Bull$22.25
Price $9.00 · Upside +42.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3439 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.1% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+6.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.1% vs 5.8%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 7%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+33.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.1% a year for the price and +31.2% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The main strength lies in the new factory-built modular timber system that halves construction times for commercial buildings, while the main weakness remains the lack of any clear durable moat with only average returns.
Main risk: Execution risks when rolling out the modular timber system into new commercial markets would directly hit the targeted construction time savings and the broader wood-focused expansion.
Sumitomo Forestry has unveiled a factory-built modular timber system that can cut construction times for small commercial buildings in half, with commercial rollout planned for 2027. This extends their wood-focused model beyond traditional housing at a time when U.S. operations have scaled up through the completed Tri Pointe integration. Our models see the shares as undervalued, but will the efficiency gains from modular building outpace any added execution risks in new markets?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Residential Construction · 62 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+42.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.3% · Above median
Return on assets4.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)4.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)29.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.58× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Is Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.85 versus a price of $9.00, about +43% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SMFRF?
Our model-based fair value for Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is $12.85 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.00.
What is the quality score of SMFRF?
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.85 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.72, optimistic scenario $22.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.85, about +43% upside versus a price of $9.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.72, optimistic scenario $22.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.5T (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 3.72% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. pays a dividend of $0.335 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.7%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 29, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2003. The payout ratio is 30.4% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.72 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +27.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.5 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SMFRF use?
Our models discount Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.59, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. that is +27.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. grew +15.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +27.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (+27.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.69 %: that much free cash flow Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. it is $12.85 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of $9.00. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, SMFRF trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.00, fair value $12.85, a gap of about +43% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMFRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.85). For Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. the two are $3.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. worth?
The market values Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. at about $5.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is $9.00; our models calculate a fair value of $12.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMFRF?
Our models span a range for Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd.: cautious scenario $6.72, base $12.85, optimistic $22.25 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price $9.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SMFRF?
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.0 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.85 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 6.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 10.3%, debt of 0.58 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value D.R. Horton, Inc, PulteGroup, Inc, Lennar Corporation, NVR, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price $9.00, calculated fair value $12.85 (+43%), Quality Score 38/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMFRF calculated?
We run Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $12.85 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. currently trades 30% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $9.00. Our model-based fair value is $12.85, about +43% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($6.72 to $22.25). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF) come from?
Earnings per share at Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. grew +8.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −3.3 %, EBIT margin +10.2 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
The market capitalisation of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is $5.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is 0.47 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
Earnings per share at Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. are $0.9000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
The dividend yield of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is 3.7% (payout 37.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
The net margin of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is 4.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is 8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
The operating margin of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
Revenue at Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is growing +29.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
Earnings per share at Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. are growing −64.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF) carry?
The net debt of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is ¥585B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 24.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 2, 2026