Sumitomo Forestry Co (SMFRF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $5.2B
Sumitomo Forestry Co
SMFRF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −6.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 47% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($8.95). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range ($8.95 to $22.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.13 – $12.64 · fair‑value band $8.95 – $22.23 · the $7.99 price screens below the $11.72 fair value. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Sumitomo Forestry Co (SMFRF) currently trades at $7.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.72, implying the stock looks roughly 46.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Sumitomo Forestry Co generated revenue of $1.1T at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue grew 15.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.0%. Net debt stands at $585B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $8.95 (bear case) to $22.23 (bull case); at $7.99, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at 47%, SMFRF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($21.55) versus Asset-Based ($6.83). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. engages in forestry business in Japan, the United States, Australia, China, Indonesia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through the Timber Building Materials Business; Housing Business; Construction and Real Estate Business; and Resources and Environment Business segments.
Full company description
Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. engages in forestry business in Japan, the United States, Australia, China, Indonesia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through the Timber Building Materials Business; Housing Business; Construction and Real Estate Business; and Resources and Environment Business segments. The Timber Building Materials Business segment purchases, manufactures, processes, and sells timber, including logs, chips, timber, laminated timber, and building materials, consisting of plywood, fiberboard, processed wood composite materials, ceramic building materials, metal building materials, and housing equipment. The Housing Business segment is involved in the contracting, after-sales maintenance, and renovation of construction work for single-family homes and apartment complexes, sales of condominiums, real estate development, leasing, management, buying and selling, and brokerage of real estate, contracting of external structures and landscaping work for housing, urban greening business, CAD, and site surveys. The Construction and Real Estate Business segment sells overseas condominiums, constructs single-family homes, develops housing complexes and commercial complexes, and provides contracting for medium- to large-scale construction work. The Resources and Environment Business segment engages in the renewable energy business, forest resource business. The company was founded in 1691 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Sumitomo Forestry Co reported revenue of $2.3T in FY2026 versus $1.4T in FY2022, a compound +13.1%/yr. Reported net income was $107B in FY2026, compounding +5.2%/yr from FY2022.
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Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $149.39 | $214.93 | +44% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $124.75 | $193.56 | +55% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $83.89 | $146.58 | +75% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,479 | $7,821 | +21% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $150.76 | $225.76 | +50% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.13 | $144.47 | +100% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $228.65 | $209.51 | -8% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $73.83 | $104.26 | +41% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $82.70 | $75.12 | -9% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $569.16 | $421.10 | -26% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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