Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 15, 2026: fair value of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. $12.36, price $7.98, upside +54.9%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.13 – $12.64 · fair‑value band $7.46 – $22.93 · the $7.98 price screens below the $12.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. engages in forestry business in Japan, the United States, Australia, China, Indonesia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through the Timber Building Materials Business; Housing Business; Construction and Real Estate Business; and Resources and Environment Business segments.
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Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. engages in forestry business in Japan, the United States, Australia, China, Indonesia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through the Timber Building Materials Business; Housing Business; Construction and Real Estate Business; and Resources and Environment Business segments. The Timber Building Materials Business segment purchases, manufactures, processes, and sells timber, including logs, chips, timber, laminated timber, and building materials, consisting of plywood, fiberboard, processed wood composite materials, ceramic building materials, metal building materials, and housing equipment. The Housing Business segment is involved in the contracting, after-sales maintenance, and renovation of construction work for single-family homes and apartment complexes, sales of condominiums, real estate development, leasing, management, buying and selling, and brokerage of real estate, contracting of external structures and landscaping work for housing, urban greening business, CAD, and site surveys. The Construction and Real Estate Business segment sells overseas condominiums, constructs single-family homes, develops housing complexes and commercial complexes, and provides contracting for medium- to large-scale construction work. The Resources and Environment Business segment engages in the renewable energy business, forest resource business. The company was founded in 1691 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.
Stock analysis
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF) currently trades at $7.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.36, implying the stock looks roughly 35.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $21.34 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the $7.98 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $1.53, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $7.46 (bear) to $22.93 (bull), the price of $7.98 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. reported revenue of ¥2.3T in FY2026 versus ¥1.4T in FY2022, a compound +13.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥107B in FY2026, compounding +5.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $4.9B · P/E ratio 7.4 · P/S ratio 0.35 · EPS (TTM) $1.08 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 4.7% · Return on equity 13.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 41% fair-value upside, at 55%, SMFRF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $7.46Fair Value $12.36Bull $22.93
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.1% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+6.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3% vs 6%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+30.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.8% a year for the price and +27.3% for the forecasts.
Compare Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Residential Construction · 65 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+55% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.58× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Is Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.36 versus the last price from Sep 15, 2026 of $7.98, about +55% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SMFRF?
Our model-based fair value for Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is $12.36 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 15, 2026): $7.98.
What is the quality score of SMFRF?
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.36 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.46, optimistic scenario $22.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.36, about +55% upside versus the last price from Sep 15, 2026 of $7.98 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $7.46, optimistic scenario $22.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.1T (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.84% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +29.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SMFRF use?
Our models discount Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. that is +29.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. grew +15.5 % a year. The price currently implies +29.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (+29.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.03 %: that much free cash flow Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. it is $12.36 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $7.98. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SMFRF trades below its calculated fair value: price $7.98, fair value $12.36, a gap of about +55% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMFRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.36). For Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. the two are $4.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. worth?
The market values Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. at about $4.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $7.98; our models calculate a fair value of $12.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMFRF?
Our models span a range for Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd.: cautious scenario $7.46, base $12.36, optimistic $22.93 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $7.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SMFRF?
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.36 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 14.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 13.0%, debt of 0.58 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value D.R. Horton, Inc, PulteGroup, Inc, Lennar Corporation, NVR, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $7.98, calculated fair value $12.36 (+55%), Quality Score 38/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMFRF calculated?
We run Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. currently trades 55 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 15, 2026 and stands at $7.98. Our model-based fair value is $12.36, about +55% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($7.46 to $22.93). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF) come from?
Earnings per share at Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. grew +8.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −3.3 %, EBIT margin +10.2 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
The market capitalisation of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is $4.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is 0.35 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
Earnings per share at Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. are $1.08 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
The dividend yield of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is 3.8% (payout 28.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
The net margin of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is 4.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is 13.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is 8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
The operating margin of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
Revenue at Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is growing +15.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
Earnings per share at Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. are growing +41.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF) carry?
The net debt of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is ¥585B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 24.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026