SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of SML Mahindra Ltd. ₹1,881, price ₹6,251, upside -69.9%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹450.80 – ₹6,826 · fair‑value band ₹964.45 – ₹2,630 · the ₹6,251 price screens above the ₹1,881 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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SML Mahindra Limited manufactures and sells commercial vehicles and related parts in India and internationally. The company's products include trucks and buses. It provides special application, cargo, and passenger vehicles. It offers its products through distributors and dealers.
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SML Mahindra Limited manufactures and sells commercial vehicles and related parts in India and internationally. The company's products include trucks and buses. It provides special application, cargo, and passenger vehicles. It offers its products through distributors and dealers. The company was formerly known as SML Isuzu Limited and changed its name to SML Mahindra Limited in October 2025. SML Mahindra Limited was incorporated in 1983 and is based in Mohali, India. As of August 1, 2025, SML Isuzu Limited operates as a subsidiary of Mahindra & Mahindra Limited.
Stock analysis
SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH) currently trades at ₹6,251, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹1,881, 69.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹2,382 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹6,251 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ₹228.34, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹964.45 (bear) to ₹2,630 (bull), the price of ₹6,251 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
SML Mahindra Ltd. reported revenue of ₹28.3B in FY2026 versus ₹9.1B in FY2022, a compound +32.6%/yr. Reported net income was ₹1.6B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap ₹90.5B (≈ $939M) · P/E ratio 57.6 · P/S ratio 3.25 · EPS (TTM) ₹108.51 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 5.6% · Return on equity 35.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 127% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −70%, SMLMAH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹964.45Fair Value ₹1,881Bull ₹2,630
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹43.09 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.4% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+36.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+35.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−20% → 8%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+55.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +49.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 103 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−69.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)35.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)5.3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)9.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)57.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B17.42× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.07× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF127.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA33.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)66· sector 32
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)8· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹1,881 versus a price of ₹6,251, about −70% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SMLMAH?
Our model-based fair value for SML Mahindra Ltd. is ₹1,881 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹6,251.
What is the quality score of SMLMAH?
SML Mahindra Ltd. has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹1,881 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹964.45, optimistic scenario ₹2,630. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SML Mahindra Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹1,881, about −70% upside versus a price of ₹6,251 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹964.45, optimistic scenario ₹2,630. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH)?
SML Mahindra Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹29.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does SML Mahindra Ltd. pay a dividend?
SML Mahindra Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.38% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SML Mahindra Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +55.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +36.9 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SMLMAH use?
Our models discount SML Mahindra Ltd. at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SML Mahindra Ltd. that is +55.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SML Mahindra Ltd. grew +36.9 % a year. The price currently implies +55.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SML Mahindra Ltd. (+55.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.78 %: that much free cash flow SML Mahindra Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SML Mahindra Ltd. it is ₹1,881 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of ₹6,251. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SML Mahindra Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, SMLMAH trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹6,251, fair value ₹1,881, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMLMAH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹6,251); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹1,881). For SML Mahindra Ltd. the two are ₹4,370 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SML Mahindra Ltd. worth?
The market values SML Mahindra Ltd. at about ₹90.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is ₹6,251; our models calculate a fair value of ₹1,881 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMLMAH?
Our models span a range for SML Mahindra Ltd.: cautious scenario ₹964.45, base ₹1,881, optimistic ₹2,630 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price ₹6,251). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SMLMAH?
SML Mahindra Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 57.6 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹1,881 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 17.4, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 33.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH)?
Balance-sheet figures for SML Mahindra Ltd. (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 35.4%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMLMAH from its 52-week high?
SML Mahindra Ltd. trades at ₹6,251, about 8% below its 52-week high of ₹6,826 and 127% above the low of ₹2,749 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹1,881 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SML Mahindra Ltd.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SML Mahindra Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price ₹6,251, calculated fair value ₹1,881 (−70%), Quality Score 57/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMLMAH calculated?
We run SML Mahindra Ltd. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹1,881, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. SML Mahindra Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹6,251. Our model-based fair value is ₹1,881, about −70% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SML Mahindra Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹2,630). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (₹964.45 to ₹2,630). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH) come from?
Earnings per share at SML Mahindra Ltd. grew +11.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.3 %, EBIT margin +3.4 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of SML Mahindra Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH)?
The market capitalisation of SML Mahindra Ltd. is ₹90.5B (≈ $939M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SML Mahindra Ltd. is 3.25 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH)?
Earnings per share at SML Mahindra Ltd. are ₹108.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 57.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH)?
The dividend yield of SML Mahindra Ltd. is 0.4% (payout 21.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH)?
The net margin of SML Mahindra Ltd. is 5.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SML Mahindra Ltd. is 35.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SML Mahindra Ltd. is 7.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH)?
The operating margin of SML Mahindra Ltd. is 9.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH)?
Revenue at SML Mahindra Ltd. is growing +13.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH)?
Earnings per share at SML Mahindra Ltd. are growing −5.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SML Mahindra Ltd. (SMLMAH) carry?
The net debt of SML Mahindra Ltd. is ₹2.7B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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