Sims Limited (SMSMY) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $3.9B

A solid business, but screening 71% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The model range is unusually wide ($2.46 to $8.30). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.58 – $21.00 · fair‑value band $2.46 – $8.30 · the $18.76 price screens above the $5.38 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Sims Limited (SMSMY) currently trades at $18.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.38, implying the stock looks roughly 71.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Sims Limited generated revenue of $7.7B at a net margin of -0.8%. Revenue grew 3.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.2%. Net debt stands at $607M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $2.46 (bear case) to $8.30 (bull case); at $18.76, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 116% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -7% fair-value upside, at -71%, SMSMY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($8.97) versus Dividend Discount ($2.76). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Sims Limited engages in buying, processing, and selling of ferrous and non-ferrous recycled metals in Australia, China, India, Thailand, Turkey, the United States, and internationally.

Full company description

Sims Limited engages in buying, processing, and selling of ferrous and non-ferrous recycled metals in Australia, China, India, Thailand, Turkey, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through five segments: North America Metal, Australia/New Zealand Metal, Investment in SA Recycling, Sims Lifecycle Services, and Global Trading Operations. It is also involved in the collection, processing, and trading of secondary raw material from iron and steel; and other metal alloys and residues, principally aluminum, lead, copper, zinc, and nickel bearing materials. The company also engages in the provision of environmental and data security services for the refurbishment, resale or commodity reclamation of IT assets recycled for commercial and post consumer suppliers. In addition, it provides secondary processing and other services comprising stevedoring and other sources of service. Sims Limited was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Mascot, Australia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Sims Limited reported revenue of $7.5B in FY2025 versus $5.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$19.0M in FY2025.

SMSMY screens 71% overvalued. Compare with Tata Steel Limited →

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• Sims Metal Management (SMSMY) Upgraded to Buy: What Does It Mean for the Stock? Yahoo Finance · Jun 23, 2026
• A Look At Sims (ASX:SGM) Valuation After Recent Share Price Volatility Yahoo Finance · Mar 22, 2026

Peer Group

Steel · 378 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.