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SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of SimilarWeb Ltd $3.54, price $8.58, upside -58.7%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · US · Home Israel · ISIN IL0011751653

SL SimilarWeb Ltd logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

SimilarWeb Ltd

SMWB · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $3.54 · Strongly overvalued (−59%)
!Quality 47/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +24.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -10.4% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/10)
!Narrow moat 20/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$24.76 $2.33 Fair Value $3.54 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.33 – $24.76 · fair‑value band $2.37 – $5.53 · the $8.58 price screens above the $3.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Similarweb Ltd. provides digital data and analytics for power critical business decisions in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, the United Kingdom, Israel, and internationally.

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Similarweb Ltd. provides digital data and analytics for power critical business decisions in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, the United Kingdom, Israel, and internationally. The company offers web intelligence solutions for its customers to benchmark performance against competitors, analyze trends in the market, conduct deeper research into specific companies, and analyze audience behavior; and solutions for its customers to understand their competitors' digital acquisition strategies on various marketing channel, and optimize their own strategies. It also provides app intelligence that allows its customers to identify trends and monitor usage and performance for mobile apps, as well as to benchmark performance against competitors across the funnel from app store downloads to usage and stickiness; sales intelligence solutions for its customers to access relevant buying signals and digital insights of their customers to generate leads quickly; and retail intelligence solutions to analyze a view of their customers' digital journeys, monitor consumer demand, increase brand visibility in the search process, and optimize category and product level conversion in the purchase process. In addition, the company offers stock intelligence solutions for its customers to access an end-to-end view of market, sector, or company performance to ideate and monitor investment opportunities; forecast market performance; and perform due diligence. Further, it provides data-as-a-service, bespoke data set, and advisory services. The company serves retail, consumer packaged goods, consumer finance, consultancies, marketing and advertising agencies, media and publishers, business-to-business software, payment processors, travel, and institutional investors, as well as luxury and premium consumer brands. Similarweb Ltd. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Givatayim, Israel.

Stock analysis

SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB) currently trades at $8.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.54, implying the stock looks roughly 142.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $3.83 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $8.58 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $2.78, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $2.37 (bear) to $5.53 (bull), the price of $8.58 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

SimilarWeb Ltd reported revenue of $283M in FY2025 versus $138M in FY2021, a compound +19.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$32.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $728M · P/S ratio 1.55 · EPS (TTM) $−0.3500 · Net margin −11.7% · Return on equity −134% · Return on assets (EBIT) −18.0% · Operating margin −4.4% · Revenue (TTM) $289M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 268% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −59%, SMWB screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.37 Fair Value $3.54 Bull $5.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $2.76 $3.83 $6.66 77
Growth DCF $2.66 $4.03 $6.37 74
Rev-Margin DCF $2.41 $3.81 $5.91 69
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $2.76 $3.83 $6.66 77
5Y Revenue Exit $2.41 $3.65 $6.04 68
10Y Revenue Exit $2.46 $3.93 $5.62 64
Multiples
EV/Revenue $2.19 $2.78 $3.36 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.1300 $0.1800 $0.2700 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $2.66 $4.03 $6.37 74
Rev-Margin DCF $2.41 $3.81 $5.91 69

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 51
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 35
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 21
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 75
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 52
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 45
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−21.0% (2020) → −8.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.9% a year for the price and +5.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+9.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+9.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+8.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+7.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+6.4%

SMWB screens 142% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 721 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside −59% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −10% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 10% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/B 31.20× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 2.52× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 55.3× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)51 · sector 38
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SAP SE SAP €184.18 €159.06 −14%
Shopify Inc SHOP $142.34 $64.36 −55%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $69.89 $104.82 +50%
Salesforce, Inc CRM $233.28 $344.41 +48%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $140.78 $154.86 +10%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $309.09 $225.14 −27%
Snowflake Inc SNOW $334.81 $75.08 −78%
Datadog, Inc DDOG $251.49 $32.92 −87%
Adobe Inc ADBE $238.25 $454.04 +91%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $263.68 $177.51 −33%

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SimilarWeb Ltd · Fair Value
$3.54 −142%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SimilarWeb Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMWB

Frequently asked questions

Is SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.54 versus a price of $8.58, about −59% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SMWB?
Our model-based fair value for SimilarWeb Ltd is $3.54 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.58.
What is the quality score of SMWB?
SimilarWeb Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.54 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.37, optimistic scenario $5.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SimilarWeb Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.54, about −59% upside versus a price of $8.58 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.37, optimistic scenario $5.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB)?
SimilarWeb Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $289M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SimilarWeb Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +34.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SMWB use?
Our models discount SimilarWeb Ltd at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.26, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SimilarWeb Ltd that is +34.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SimilarWeb Ltd grew +24.8 % a year. The price currently implies +34.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SimilarWeb Ltd (+34.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.81 %: that much free cash flow SimilarWeb Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SimilarWeb Ltd it is $3.54 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $8.58. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SimilarWeb Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SMWB trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.58, fair value $3.54, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMWB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.58); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.54). For SimilarWeb Ltd the two are $5.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SimilarWeb Ltd worth?
The market values SimilarWeb Ltd at about $728M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $8.58; our models calculate a fair value of $3.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMWB?
Our models span a range for SimilarWeb Ltd: cautious scenario $2.37, base $3.54, optimistic $5.53 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $8.58). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB)?
Balance-sheet figures for SimilarWeb Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −134.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMWB from its 52-week high?
SimilarWeb Ltd trades at $8.58, about 12% below its 52-week high of $9.78 and 268% above the low of $2.33 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SimilarWeb Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SimilarWeb Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $8.58, calculated fair value $3.54 (−59%), Quality Score 47/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMWB calculated?
We run SimilarWeb Ltd through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. SimilarWeb Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $8.58. Our model-based fair value is $3.54, about −59% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SimilarWeb Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($2.37 to $5.53) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of SimilarWeb Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB)?
The market capitalisation of SimilarWeb Ltd is $728M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SimilarWeb Ltd is 1.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB)?
Earnings per share at SimilarWeb Ltd are $−0.3500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB)?
The net margin of SimilarWeb Ltd is −11.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SimilarWeb Ltd is −134% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SimilarWeb Ltd is −18.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB)?
The operating margin of SimilarWeb Ltd is −4.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB)?
Revenue at SimilarWeb Ltd is growing +10.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does SimilarWeb Ltd (SMWB) hold?
SimilarWeb Ltd holds more cash than debt, $29.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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