Similarweb Ltd (SMWB) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $449M
Similarweb Ltd
SMWB · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $0.8000 to $2.28 (+185.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +21.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 70% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.87). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.33 – $24.76 · fair‑value band $1.70 – $2.87 · the $7.51 price screens above the $2.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Similarweb Ltd (SMWB) currently trades at $7.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.28, implying the stock looks roughly 69.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Similarweb Ltd generated revenue of $289M at a net margin of -10.4%. Revenue grew 10.1% year over year. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $29.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.70 (bear case) to $2.87 (bull case); at $7.51, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 238% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -70%, SMWB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($3.81) versus Asset-Based ($0.1800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Similarweb Ltd. provides digital data and analytics for power critical business decisions in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, the United Kingdom, Israel, and internationally.
Full company description
Similarweb Ltd. provides digital data and analytics for power critical business decisions in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, the United Kingdom, Israel, and internationally. The company offers web intelligence solutions for its customers to benchmark performance against competitors, analyze trends in the market, conduct deeper research into specific companies, and analyze audience behavior; and solutions for its customers to understand their competitors' digital acquisition strategies on various marketing channel, and optimize their own strategies. It also provides app intelligence that allows its customers to identify trends and monitor usage and performance for mobile apps, as well as to benchmark performance against competitors across the funnel from app store downloads to usage and stickiness; sales intelligence solutions for its customers to access relevant buying signals and digital insights of their customers to generate leads quickly; and retail intelligence solutions to analyze a view of their customers' digital journeys, monitor consumer demand, increase brand visibility in the search process, and optimize category and product level conversion in the purchase process. In addition, the company offers stock intelligence solutions for its customers to access an end-to-end view of market, sector, or company performance to ideate and monitor investment opportunities; forecast market performance; and perform due diligence. Further, it provides data-as-a-service, bespoke data set, and advisory services. The company serves retail, consumer packaged goods, consumer finance, consultancies, marketing and advertising agencies, media and publishers, business-to-business software, payment processors, travel, and institutional investors, as well as luxury and premium consumer brands. Similarweb Ltd. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Givatayim, Israel.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Similarweb Ltd reported revenue of $283M in FY2025 versus $138M in FY2021, a compound +19.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$32.9M in FY2025.
SMWB screens 70% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Similarweb (SMWB) Soars 10.4%: Is Further Upside Left in the Stock?
- Similarweb secures multi-year, seven-figure ARR contracts worth about $47M in Total Contract Value
- Similarweb (SMWB) Expands Partnership with Perplexity for AI Workflows
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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