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SNDL Inc. (SNDL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of SNDL Inc. $3.76, price $1.40, upside +168.6%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Defensive · US · Home Canada · ISIN CA83307B1013

SI SNDL Inc. logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

SNDL Inc.

SNDL · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $3.76 · Strongly undervalued (+169%)
!Quality 58/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +73.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -1.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
!Narrow moat 14/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$10.00 $1.20 Fair Value $3.76 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.20 – $10.00 · fair‑value band $2.54 – $6.31 · the $1.40 price screens below the $3.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

SNDL Inc. engages in the production, distribution, and sale of cannabis products for the adult-use market in Canada and internationally. It operates through four segments: Liquor Retail, Cannabis Retail, Cannabis Operations, and Investments.

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SNDL Inc. engages in the production, distribution, and sale of cannabis products for the adult-use market in Canada and internationally. It operates through four segments: Liquor Retail, Cannabis Retail, Cannabis Operations, and Investments. The company engages in the cultivation, distribution, and sale of cannabis for the adult-use and medical markets; sale of wines, beers, and spirits through liquor stores under the Wine and Beyond, Ace Liquor, and Liquor Depot retail banners; and private sale of adult-use cannabis products and accessories through its corporate-owned, controlled, and franchised retail cannabis stores. It also produces and distributes flower, pre-rolls, and vapes, as well as offers financial services; and provision of proprietary cannabis processing services. It offers its products under the Top Leaf, Contraband, Palmetto, Bon Jak, La Logue, Versus, Grasslands, Pearls by Grön, No Future, and Bhang Chocolate brands. The company was formerly known as Sundial Growers Inc. and changed its name to SNDL Inc. in July 2022. SNDL Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Edmonton, Canada.

Stock analysis

SNDL Inc. (SNDL) currently trades at $1.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.76, implying the stock looks roughly 62.8% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $5.90 per share, and 11 of the 11 models we run sit above the $1.40 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.84, and 0 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $2.54 (bear) to $6.31 (bull), the price of $1.40 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

SNDL Inc. reported revenue of C$946M in FY2025 versus C$56.1M in FY2021, a compound +102.6%/yr. Reported net income was −C$15.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $361M · P/S ratio 0.39 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0300 · Net margin −1.7% · Return on equity −1.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −10.2% · Operating margin −5.7% · Revenue (TTM) C$937M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at 169%, SNDL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.54 Fair Value $3.76 Bull $6.31
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $4.33 $5.87 $10.48 76
Growth DCF $4.12 $6.41 $10.00 75
Owner Earnings $2.63 $4.40 $7.67 72
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $4.33 $5.87 $10.48 76
Owner Earnings $2.63 $4.40 $7.67 72
5Y Revenue Exit $3.56 $5.28 $8.87 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $3.50 $5.17 $8.41 71
10Y Revenue Exit $3.76 $6.64 $8.35 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $3.80 $6.53 $11.06 64
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $3.08 $3.77 $4.47 67
EV/Revenue $3.02 $3.89 $4.76 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.12 $2.84 $4.23 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $4.12 $6.41 $10.00 75
Rev-Margin DCF $3.82 $5.90 $10.27 68

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 23
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 70
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 36
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 71
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 52/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+73.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+77.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−304.4% (2020) → −0.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.9% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 98 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside +169% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.02× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.33× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.39× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 6.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 14.0× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 61

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

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Radico Khaitan Limited RADICO ₹4,602 ₹947.44 −79%
Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co 603369 ¥27.26 ¥38.66 +42%

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SNDL Inc. · Fair Value
$3.76 +63%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SNDL Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SNDL

Frequently asked questions

Is SNDL Inc. (SNDL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.76 versus a price of $1.40, about +169% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SNDL?
Our model-based fair value for SNDL Inc. is $3.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.40.
What is the quality score of SNDL?
SNDL Inc. has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.54, optimistic scenario $6.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SNDL Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.76, about +169% upside versus a price of $1.40 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.54, optimistic scenario $6.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
SNDL Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$937M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SNDL Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -5.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +73.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SNDL use?
Our models discount SNDL Inc. at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SNDL Inc. that is -5.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SNDL Inc. (SNDL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SNDL Inc. grew +73.1 % a year. The price currently implies -5.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SNDL Inc. (SNDL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SNDL Inc. (-5.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.37 %: that much free cash flow SNDL Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SNDL Inc. it is $3.76 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $1.40. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SNDL Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SNDL trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.40, fair value $3.76, a gap of about +169% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SNDL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.76). For SNDL Inc. the two are $2.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SNDL Inc. worth?
The market values SNDL Inc. at about $361M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $1.40; our models calculate a fair value of $3.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SNDL?
Our models span a range for SNDL Inc.: cautious scenario $2.54, base $3.76, optimistic $6.31 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $1.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
Balance-sheet figures for SNDL Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −1.0%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SNDL from its 52-week high?
SNDL Inc. trades at $1.40, about 50% below its 52-week high of $2.82 and 17% above the low of $1.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SNDL Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Luzhou Laojiao Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SNDL Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $1.40, calculated fair value $3.76 (+169%), Quality Score 58/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SNDL calculated?
We run SNDL Inc. through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. SNDL Inc. currently trades 169 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $1.40. Our model-based fair value is $3.76, about +169% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SNDL Inc. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($2.54). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($2.54 to $6.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of SNDL Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
The market capitalisation of SNDL Inc. is $361M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SNDL Inc. is 0.39 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
Earnings per share at SNDL Inc. are $−0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
The net margin of SNDL Inc. is −1.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SNDL Inc. is −1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SNDL Inc. is −10.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
The operating margin of SNDL Inc. is −5.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
Revenue at SNDL Inc. is growing −4.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does SNDL Inc. (SNDL) hold?
SNDL Inc. holds more cash than debt, C$102M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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