SNDL Inc. (SNDL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of SNDL Inc. stock $2.70, price $1.42, upside +90.8%, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.15 – $9.20 · fair‑value band $2.22 – $3.38 · the $1.42 price screens below the $2.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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SNDL Inc. engages in the production, distribution, and sale of cannabis products for the adult-use market in Canada and internationally. It operates through four segments: Liquor Retail, Cannabis Retail, Cannabis Operations, and Investments.
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The company engages in the cultivation, distribution, and sale of cannabis for the adult-use and medical markets; sale of wines, beers, and spirits through liquor stores under the Wine and Beyond, Ace Liquor, and Liquor Depot retail banners; and private sale of adult-use cannabis products and accessories through its corporate-owned, controlled, and franchised retail cannabis stores.
It also produces and distributes flower, pre-rolls, and vapes, as well as offers financial services; and provision of proprietary cannabis processing services.
It offers its products under the Top Leaf, Contraband, Palmetto, Bon Jak, La Logue, Versus, Grasslands, Pearls by Grön, No Future, and Bhang Chocolate brands. The company was formerly known as Sundial Growers Inc. and changed its name to SNDL Inc. in July 2022.
SNDL Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Edmonton, Canada.
Stock analysis
SNDL Inc. (SNDL) currently trades at $1.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.70, implying the stock looks roughly 48% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $2.77 per share, and 10 of the 11 models we run sit above the $1.42 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.6200, and 1 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $2.22 (bear) to $3.38 (bull), the price of $1.42 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
SNDL Inc. reported revenue of C$946M in FY2025 versus C$56.1M in FY2021, a compound +102.6%/yr. Reported net income was −C$15.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $363M Small · P/S ratio 0.37 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1700 · Net margin −6.4% · Return on equity −5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −10.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin −1.4% · Revenue (TTM) C$922M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at 91%, SNDL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$2.22Fair Value $2.70Bull$3.38
Price $1.42 · Upside +90.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+73.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+77.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−304.4% (2020) → −0.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 90 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SNDL Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SNDL
Frequently asked questions
Is SNDL Inc. (SNDL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.70 versus a price of $1.42, about +91% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SNDL?
Our model-based fair value for SNDL Inc. is $2.70 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.42.
What is the quality score of SNDL?
SNDL Inc. has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.70 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.22, optimistic scenario $3.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SNDL Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.70, about +91% upside versus a price of $1.42 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.22, optimistic scenario $3.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
SNDL Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$922M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SNDL Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -5.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +73.1 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SNDL use?
Our models discount SNDL Inc. at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SNDL Inc. that is -5.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SNDL Inc. (SNDL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SNDL Inc. grew +73.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -5.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SNDL Inc. (SNDL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SNDL Inc. (-5.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.34 %: that much free cash flow SNDL Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SNDL Inc. it is $2.70 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $1.42. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is SNDL Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, SNDL trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.42, fair value $2.70, a gap of about +91% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SNDL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.70). For SNDL Inc. the two are $1.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SNDL Inc. worth?
The market values SNDL Inc. at about $363M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $1.42; our models calculate a fair value of $2.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SNDL?
Our models span a range for SNDL Inc.: cautious scenario $2.22, base $2.70, optimistic $3.38 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $1.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
Balance-sheet figures for SNDL Inc. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −5.6%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SNDL from its 52-week high?
SNDL Inc. trades at $1.42, about 36% below its 52-week high of $2.21 and 23% above the low of $1.15 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SNDL Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SNDL Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $1.42, calculated fair value $2.70 (+91%), Quality Score 61/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SNDL calculated?
We run SNDL Inc. through 11 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $2.70 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. SNDL Inc. currently trades 48% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $1.42. Our model-based fair value is $2.70, about +91% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SNDL Inc. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($2.22). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of SNDL Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
The market capitalisation of SNDL Inc. is $363M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SNDL Inc. is 0.37 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
Earnings per share at SNDL Inc. are $−0.1700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
The net margin of SNDL Inc. is −6.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SNDL Inc. is −5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SNDL Inc. is −10.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
The operating margin of SNDL Inc. is −1.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SNDL Inc. (SNDL)?
Revenue at SNDL Inc. is growing −2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does SNDL Inc. (SNDL) hold?
SNDL Inc. holds more cash than debt, C$102M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026