Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Supalai Public Company Limited stock THB 22.55, price THB 15.50, upside +45.5%, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 12.07 THB – 18.50 THB · fair‑value band 12.43 THB – 29.16 THB · the 15.50 THB price screens below the 22.55 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 13, 2026.
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Supalai Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development business in Thailand and Australia. It operates through Real estate Business; and Hotel Business and Management segments.
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The company owns and operates housing projects, such as detached houses, duplex houses, townhouses, and condominiums under the Supalai brand name. It also develops office buildings for rent; and provides real estate project management, as well as the management of hotels and resorts.
In addition, the company is involved in developing shopping centers; deals in trades in land and real estate properties; provision of rental and/or leasing services for real estate; investing in securities; and hotel development business.
Supalai Public Company Limited was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Stock analysis
Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI) currently trades at 15.50 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 22.55 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 31% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 29.46 THB per share, and 13 of the 16 models we run sit above the 15.50 THB price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 15.20 THB, and 3 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 12.43 THB (bear) to 29.16 THB (bull), the price of 15.50 THB sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Supalai Public Company Limited reported revenue of 24.1B THB in FY2025 versus 29.2B THB in FY2021, a compound −4.6%/yr. Reported net income was 4.0B THB in FY2025, compounding −13.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 29.2B THB (≈ $864M) Small · P/E ratio 7.0 · P/S ratio 1.23 · EPS (TTM) 2.21 THB · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 17.8% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 41% fair-value upside, at 46%, SPALI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear12.43 THBFair Value 22.55 THBBull29.16 THB
Price 15.50 THB · Upside +45.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.31 THB per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+0.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3.7% vs −2.2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 19%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.9% a year for the price and −0.1% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 492 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside+45.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.7% · Above median
Return on assets4.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)17.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)18.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−14.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Supalai Public Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SPALI
Frequently asked questions
Is Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 22.55 THB versus a price of 15.50 THB, about +46% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SPALI?
Our model-based fair value for Supalai Public Company Limited is 22.55 THB (as of Nov 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 15.50 THB.
What is the quality score of SPALI?
Supalai Public Company Limited has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 22.55 THB (as of Nov 13, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12.43 THB, optimistic scenario 29.16 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Supalai Public Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 22.55 THB, about +46% upside versus a price of 15.50 THB (undervalued). Cautious scenario 12.43 THB, optimistic scenario 29.16 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
Supalai Public Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 23.7B THB (latest available figure, as of Nov 13, 2026).
Does Supalai Public Company Limited pay a dividend?
Supalai Public Company Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 4.52% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 13, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Supalai Public Company Limited pays a dividend of 0.7 THB per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 25, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2004. The payout ratio is 31.7% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.94 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Supalai Public Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +30.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.2 % per year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SPALI use?
Our models discount Supalai Public Company Limited at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Supalai Public Company Limited that is +30.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Supalai Public Company Limited grew +3.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +30.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Supalai Public Company Limited (+30.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.28 %: that much free cash flow Supalai Public Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Supalai Public Company Limited it is 22.55 THB per share (as of Nov 13, 2026), against a price of 15.50 THB. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Supalai Public Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 13, 2026, SPALI trades below its calculated fair value: price 15.50 THB, fair value 22.55 THB, a gap of about +46% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SPALI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (15.50 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (22.55 THB). For Supalai Public Company Limited the two are 7.05 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Supalai Public Company Limited worth?
The market values Supalai Public Company Limited at about 29.2B THB (market capitalisation, as of Nov 13, 2026). Per share that is 15.50 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 22.55 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SPALI?
Our models span a range for Supalai Public Company Limited: cautious scenario 12.43 THB, base 22.55 THB, optimistic 29.16 THB per share (as of Nov 13, 2026, price 15.50 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SPALI?
Supalai Public Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.0 (as of Nov 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 22.55 THB is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 6.7. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 0.5, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 8.6.
What is the PEG ratio of SPALI?
The PEG ratio of Supalai Public Company Limited is 0.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 13, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Supalai Public Company Limited (as of Nov 13, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SPALI from its 52-week high?
Supalai Public Company Limited trades at 15.50 THB, about 11% below its 52-week high of 17.40 THB and 8% above the low of 14.41 THB (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 22.55 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Supalai Public Company Limited?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Supalai Public Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 13, 2026: price 15.50 THB, calculated fair value 22.55 THB (+46%), Quality Score 52/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SPALI calculated?
We run Supalai Public Company Limited through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 22.55 THB builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9% above its aggregate fair value. Supalai Public Company Limited currently trades 31% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was 15.50 THB. Our model-based fair value is 22.55 THB, about +46% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Supalai Public Company Limited right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (12.43 THB to 29.16 THB) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI) come from?
Earnings per share at Supalai Public Company Limited grew +0.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.1 %, EBIT margin −2.2 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Supalai Public Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
The market capitalisation of Supalai Public Company Limited is 29.2B THB (≈ $864M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Supalai Public Company Limited is 1.23 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
Earnings per share at Supalai Public Company Limited are 2.21 THB (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
The dividend yield of Supalai Public Company Limited is 4.5% (payout 31.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
The net margin of Supalai Public Company Limited is 17.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Supalai Public Company Limited is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Supalai Public Company Limited is 9.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
The operating margin of Supalai Public Company Limited is 18.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
Revenue at Supalai Public Company Limited is growing −14.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
Earnings per share at Supalai Public Company Limited are growing −28.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI) carry?
The net debt of Supalai Public Company Limited is 34.2B THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 27.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 13, 2026