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Supalai Public Company (SPALI) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · TH · Market cap 30.3B THB

SP Supalai Public Company SPALI · BK
Price16.50 THB
Fair Value24.33 THB
Upside+47.5%
Quality51/100
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Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 16.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
7.86% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (12/15)
Moderate moat 49/100
Evidence: High Range 20.84 THB – 40.42 THB Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 26.17 THB to 24.33 THB (−7.0%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price +5.1% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 47% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (20.84 THB). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (20.84 THB to 40.42 THB) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

19.13 THB 12.48 THB Fair Value 24.33 THB Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 12.48 THB – 19.13 THB · fair‑value band 20.84 THB – 40.42 THB · the 16.50 THB price screens below the 24.33 THB fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Supalai Public Company (SPALI) currently trades at 16.50 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 24.33 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 47.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Supalai Public Company generated revenue of 24.4B THB at a net margin of 16.5%. Revenue grew 6.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.3%. Net debt stands at 34.2B THB. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 20.84 THB (bear case) to 40.42 THB (bull case); at 16.50 THB, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at 47%, SPALI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 3.14 THB 7.96 THB 15.60 THB 80
Residual Income 23.46 THB 25.00 THB 27.29 THB 76
Rev-Margin DCF 11.57 THB 24.22 THB 39.24 THB 74
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 3.06 THB 7.97 THB 15.75 THB 38
5Y Revenue Exit 11.57 THB 24.59 THB 41.83 THB 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 17.44 THB 35.91 THB 58.23 THB 41
10Y Revenue Exit 7.80 THB 19.05 THB 35.29 THB 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 12.27 THB 27.04 THB 48.17 THB 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 13.08 THB 27.20 THB 43.15 THB 70
DDM Multi-Stage 13.08 THB 22.94 THB 28.55 THB 61
Multiples
P/S Multiple 27.01 THB 36.01 THB 45.01 THB 58
P/B Multiple 27.01 THB 36.01 THB 45.01 THB 55
EV/EBIT 34.16 THB 47.13 THB 60.09 THB 53
EV/EBITDA 28.15 THB 39.10 THB 50.06 THB 54
EV/Revenue 16.72 THB 25.91 THB 35.11 THB 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 14.17 THB 18.99 THB 28.35 THB 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 3.14 THB 7.96 THB 15.60 THB 80
Rev-Margin DCF 11.57 THB 24.22 THB 39.24 THB 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 23.46 THB 25.00 THB 27.29 THB 76

Widest divergence: Multiples (36.01 THB) versus Growth DCF (7.96 THB). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 24.4B THB
Revenue growth (YoY) +6.9%
Net margin 16.5%
Return on equity 7.3%
Free cash flow 1.3B THB FY2025
P/E ratio 7.9
More key figures
Operating margin 14.6%
EPS (TTM) 2.09 THB
Dividend yield 8.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +2.8%
Net debt 34.2B THB FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 10
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 41
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 51
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 88
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 59
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 93
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Supalai Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development business in Thailand and Australia. It operates through Real estate Business; and Hotel Business and Management segments.

Full company description

Supalai Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development business in Thailand and Australia. It operates through Real estate Business; and Hotel Business and Management segments. The company owns and operates housing projects, such as detached houses, duplex houses, townhouses, and condominiums under the Supalai brand name. It also develops office buildings for rent; and provides real estate project management, as well as the management of hotels and resorts. In addition, the company is involved in developing shopping centers; deals in trades in land and real estate properties; provision of rental and/or leasing services for real estate; investing in securities; and hotel development business. Supalai Public Company Limited was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Supalai Public Company reported revenue of 24.1B THB in FY2025 versus 29.2B THB in FY2021, a compound −4.6%/yr. Reported net income was 4.0B THB in FY2025, compounding −13.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 49/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
24.1B THB
Latest YoY
−22.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−11.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.2%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.2%
Revenue −4.6%/yr
FY21 29.2B THB
FY22 34.5B THB
FY23 31.2B THB
FY24 31.2B THB
FY25 24.1B THB
Net income −13.2%/yr
FY21 7.1B THB
FY22 8.2B THB
FY23 6.0B THB
FY24 6.2B THB
FY25 4.0B THB
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +0.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +2.1 pp

of which total revenue +3.5 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.4 pp

EBIT margin −2.2 pp
Tax rate −0.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Supalai Public Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SPALI

Peer Group

Real Estate - Development · 590 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Above median
Fair Value upside +48% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 16% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 15% · Above median
Revenue growth 7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.9% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.24× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.56× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.24× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 8.5× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.37× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 97 · sector 47
FUTURE 35 · sector 0
PAST 29 · sector 9
HEALTH 88 · sector 84
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 39

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DLF Limited DLF ₹661.75 ₹146.13 -78%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,209 ₹583.43 -52%
PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI 6,150 IDR 1,330 IDR -78%
PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT 1,080 IDR 1,674 IDR +55%
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE 595.00 IDR 1,488 IDR +150%
PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL 73.00 IDR 84.16 IDR +15%
PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA 610.00 IDR 1,525 IDR +150%
Khang Dien House Trading and Investment Joint Stock Company KDH 18,150 VND 20,338 VND +12%
PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI 4,300 IDR 6,239 IDR +45%
PT Puradelta Lestari Tbk DMAS 147.00 IDR 164.33 IDR +12%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Supalai Public Company (SPALI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 24.33 THB versus a price of 16.50 THB, about +47% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SPALI?
Our model-based fair value for Supalai Public Company is 24.33 THB (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 16.50 THB.
What is the quality score of SPALI?
Supalai Public Company has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Supalai Public Company (SPALI)?
Supalai Public Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 24.4B THB (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SPALI?
The net profit margin of Supalai Public Company is about 16.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 16.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Supalai Public Company pay a dividend?
Supalai Public Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.12% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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