Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Supalai Public Company Limited THB 22.63, price THB 16.10, upside +40.6%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 12.48 THB – 19.13 THB · fair‑value band 10.97 THB – 24.88 THB · the 16.10 THB price screens below the 22.63 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Supalai Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development business in Thailand and Australia. It operates through Real estate Business; and Hotel Business and Management segments.
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Supalai Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development business in Thailand and Australia. It operates through Real estate Business; and Hotel Business and Management segments. The company owns and operates housing projects, such as detached houses, duplex houses, townhouses, and condominiums under the Supalai brand name. It also develops office buildings for rent; and provides real estate project management, as well as the management of hotels and resorts. In addition, the company is involved in developing shopping centers; deals in trades in land and real estate properties; provision of rental and/or leasing services for real estate; investing in securities; and hotel development business. Supalai Public Company Limited was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Stock analysis
Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI) currently trades at 16.10 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 22.63 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 28.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 36.01 THB per share, and 14 of the 16 models we run sit above the 16.10 THB price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 8.95 THB, and 2 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 10.97 THB (bear) to 24.88 THB (bull), the price of 16.10 THB sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Supalai Public Company Limited reported revenue of 24.1B THB in FY2025 versus 29.2B THB in FY2021, a compound −4.6%/yr. Reported net income was 4.0B THB in FY2025, compounding −13.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 30.9B THB (≈ $919M) · P/E ratio 7.7 · P/S ratio 1.28 · EPS (TTM) 2.09 THB · Dividend yield 7.8% · Net margin 16.6% · Return on equity 7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 41%, SPALI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 10.97 THBFair Value 22.63 THBBull 24.88 THB
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.6283 THB per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+4.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3.7% vs −2.2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 19%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+31.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +29.4% a year for the price and +1.8% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 576 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside+40.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7.3% · Above median
Return on assets2.8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)16.5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)14.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)7.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Supalai Public Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SPALI
Frequently asked questions
Is Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 22.63 THB versus a price of 16.10 THB, about +41% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SPALI?
Our model-based fair value for Supalai Public Company Limited is 22.63 THB (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 16.10 THB.
What is the quality score of SPALI?
Supalai Public Company Limited has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 22.63 THB (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 10.97 THB, optimistic scenario 24.88 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Supalai Public Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 22.63 THB, about +41% upside versus a price of 16.10 THB (undervalued). Cautious scenario 10.97 THB, optimistic scenario 24.88 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
Supalai Public Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 24.4B THB (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Supalai Public Company Limited pay a dividend?
Supalai Public Company Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.76% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Supalai Public Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +31.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.2 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SPALI use?
Our models discount Supalai Public Company Limited at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Supalai Public Company Limited that is +31.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Supalai Public Company Limited grew +3.2 % a year. The price currently implies +31.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Supalai Public Company Limited (+31.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.05 %: that much free cash flow Supalai Public Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Supalai Public Company Limited it is 22.63 THB per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 16.10 THB. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Supalai Public Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, SPALI trades below its calculated fair value: price 16.10 THB, fair value 22.63 THB, a gap of about +41% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SPALI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (16.10 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (22.63 THB). For Supalai Public Company Limited the two are 6.53 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Supalai Public Company Limited worth?
The market values Supalai Public Company Limited at about 30.9B THB (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 16.10 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 22.63 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SPALI?
Our models span a range for Supalai Public Company Limited: cautious scenario 10.97 THB, base 22.63 THB, optimistic 24.88 THB per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 16.10 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SPALI?
Supalai Public Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.7 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 22.63 THB is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 0.6, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 8.6.
What is the PEG ratio of SPALI?
The PEG ratio of Supalai Public Company Limited is 0.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Supalai Public Company Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 7.3%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SPALI from its 52-week high?
Supalai Public Company Limited trades at 16.10 THB, about 11% below its 52-week high of 17.99 THB and 8% above the low of 14.90 THB (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 22.63 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Supalai Public Company Limited?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Supalai Public Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 16.10 THB, calculated fair value 22.63 THB (+41%), Quality Score 51/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SPALI calculated?
We run Supalai Public Company Limited through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 22.63 THB, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Supalai Public Company Limited currently trades 29 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was 16.10 THB. Our model-based fair value is 22.63 THB, about +41% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Supalai Public Company Limited right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (10.97 THB to 24.88 THB) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI) come from?
Earnings per share at Supalai Public Company Limited grew +0.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.1 %, EBIT margin −2.2 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Supalai Public Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
The market capitalisation of Supalai Public Company Limited is 30.9B THB (≈ $919M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Supalai Public Company Limited is 1.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
Earnings per share at Supalai Public Company Limited are 2.09 THB (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
The dividend yield of Supalai Public Company Limited is 7.8% (payout 59.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
The net margin of Supalai Public Company Limited is 16.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Supalai Public Company Limited is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Supalai Public Company Limited is 9.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
The operating margin of Supalai Public Company Limited is 14.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
Revenue at Supalai Public Company Limited is growing +6.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI)?
Earnings per share at Supalai Public Company Limited are growing +2.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI) carry?
The net debt of Supalai Public Company Limited is 34.2B THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 27.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026