Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd stock $11.49, price $18.12, upside -36.6%, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.17 – $24.97 · fair‑value band $8.62 – $14.36 · the $18.12 price screens above the $11.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
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Square Enix Holdings Co., Ltd. operates in the content and service businesses in Japan and internationally. It operates through Digital Entertainment Business, Amusement Business, Publishing Business, and Rights Property Business.
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The company plans, develops, sells, and manages digital entertainment content primarily in the form of computer games.
It is also involved in the operation of amusement facilities; and planning, development, manufacture, sale, and rental of arcade game machines and related products for amusement facilities. In addition, the company publishes and licenses comic books, magazines, game-related books, periodicals, etc.
Further, it plans, produces, develops, and licenses secondary works; and offers content under the SQUARE ENIX PRODUCTS brand; and stuffed toys and utility goods under the SQEX TOYS brand. The company was incorporated in 1975 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF) currently trades at $18.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.49, 36.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $18.15 per share, and 7 of the 25 models we run sit above the $18.12 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.85, and 18 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $8.62 (bear) to $14.36 (bull), the price of $18.12 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd reported revenue of ¥300B in FY2026 versus ¥365B in FY2022, a compound −4.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥29.8B in FY2026, compounding −12.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $6.5B Mid · P/E ratio 34.8 · P/S ratio 3.47 · EPS (TTM) $0.5200 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 9.9% · Return on equity 11.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 50% fair-value upside, at −37%, SQNXF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$8.62Fair Value $11.49Bull$14.36
Price $18.12 · Upside -36.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+6.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.9% vs 4.3%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 18%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.9% a year for the price and +3.2% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Core franchises offer the main strength while low ROE and missing moat indicators represent the key weakness of only moderate or weak competitive advantages.
Main risk: Support for smaller developers through the revived Collective label risks stretching limited resources and competing with flagship development, hitting core portfolio expansion.
Square Enix has revived its Square Enix Collective label through a new publishing partnership for the indie extraction RPG Vaultbreakers. The move reaches for fresh external ideas beyond core franchises yet creates tension around whether those projects will meaningfully expand the business or simply stretch limited resources. Does renewed support for smaller developers strengthen the portfolio more than it competes with flagship development?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Gaming & Multimedia · 136 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.49 versus a price of $18.12, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SQNXF?
Our model-based fair value for Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd is $11.49 (as of Oct 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.12.
What is the quality score of SQNXF?
Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.49 (as of Oct 14, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.62, optimistic scenario $14.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.49, about −37% upside versus a price of $18.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.62, optimistic scenario $14.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF)?
Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥317B (latest available figure, as of Oct 14, 2026).
Does Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd pay a dividend?
Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.50% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 14, 2026).
What growth is priced into Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +3.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.0 % per year. As of Oct 14, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SQNXF use?
Our models discount Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.35, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd that is +3.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd grew -2.0 % a year. The price currently implies +3.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (+3.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.45 %: that much free cash flow Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd it is $11.49 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026), against a price of $18.12. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 14, 2026, SQNXF trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.12, fair value $11.49, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SQNXF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.49). For Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd the two are $6.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd worth?
The market values Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd at about $6.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 14, 2026). Per share that is $18.12; our models calculate a fair value of $11.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SQNXF?
Our models span a range for Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd: cautious scenario $8.62, base $11.49, optimistic $14.36 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026, price $18.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SQNXF?
Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.8 (as of Oct 14, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.49 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.2, P/B 2.9, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 10.5.
What is the PEG ratio of SQNXF?
The PEG ratio of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd is 3.21 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 14, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (as of Oct 14, 2026): return on equity 11.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SQNXF from its 52-week high?
Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd trades at $18.12, about 14% below its 52-week high of $20.97 and 29% above the low of $14.05 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value NetEase, Inc, Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc, Roblox Corporation, Zhejiang Century Huatong Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 14, 2026: price $18.12, calculated fair value $11.49 (−37%), Quality Score 74/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SQNXF calculated?
We run Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $18.12. Our model-based fair value is $11.49, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd right now?
A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Where does the earnings growth of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF) come from?
Earnings per share at Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd grew +3.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.9 %, EBIT margin +1.3 %, tax rate −2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF)?
The market capitalisation of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd is $6.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd is 3.47 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF)?
Earnings per share at Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd are $0.5200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF)?
The dividend yield of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd is 4.5% (payout 157%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF)?
The net margin of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd is 9.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd is 11.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF)?
The operating margin of Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd is 21.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF)?
Revenue at Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd is growing +32.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF)?
Earnings per share at Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd are growing +176% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd (SQNXF) hold?
Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd holds more cash than debt, ¥275B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 14, 2026