Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Stadler Rail AG CHF 14.75, price CHF 29.86, upside -50.6%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 17.55 – CHF 39.71 · fair‑value band CHF 7.43 – CHF 16.47 · the CHF 29.86 price screens above the CHF 14.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Stadler Rail AG, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of trains in Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Western and Eastern Europe, the Americas, the CIS countries, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Rolling Stock; Service & Components; and Signalling.
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Stadler Rail AG, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of trains in Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Western and Eastern Europe, the Americas, the CIS countries, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Rolling Stock; Service & Components; and Signalling. The Rolling Stock segment manufactures various rail vehicles comprising high-speed, intercity, regional trains, city transport, locomotives, and tailor made, as well as passenger coaches, light rails, and trams. The Service & Component segment provides revision, spare parts, vehicle repair, modernization and overhauling, and maintenance services; and supplies vehicle components, such as car bodies or bogies. The Signalling segment develops and distributes various signalling solutions for vehicles and infrastructures. This segment offers various solutions in the areas of train protection, communication-based train control for driverless operation, automatic train operation, driving assistance systems, interlocking technologies, and other trackside components for automatic train protection system, as well as services for the planning and implementation of security systems. The company was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Bussnang, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL) currently trades at CHF 29.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 14.75, implying the stock looks roughly 102.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of CHF 18.49 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the CHF 29.86 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at CHF 2.63, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: CHF 7.43 (bear) to CHF 16.47 (bull), the price of CHF 29.86 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Stadler Rail AG reported revenue of CHF 3.7B in FY2025 versus CHF 3.6B in FY2021, a compound +0.3%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 88.0M in FY2025, compounding −9.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 3.0B · P/E ratio 28.4 · P/S ratio 0.68 · EPS (TTM) CHF 1.05 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 2.4% · Return on equity 12.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −51%, SRAIL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear CHF 7.43Fair Value CHF 14.75Bull CHF 16.47
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 0.4099 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−6.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8.0% vs −3.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 4%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 109 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−50.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)4.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth40.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.62× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)28.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.68× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.70× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA9.6× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)50· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)69· sector 88
DIVIDEND (yield)33· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Stadler Rail AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SRAIL
Frequently asked questions
Is Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 14.75 versus a price of CHF 29.86, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SRAIL?
Our model-based fair value for Stadler Rail AG is CHF 14.75 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 29.86.
What is the quality score of SRAIL?
Stadler Rail AG has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 14.75 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 7.43, optimistic scenario CHF 16.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Stadler Rail AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 14.75, about −51% upside versus a price of CHF 29.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 7.43, optimistic scenario CHF 16.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL)?
Stadler Rail AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 4.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Stadler Rail AG pay a dividend?
Stadler Rail AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.67% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Stadler Rail AG it is CHF 14.75 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of CHF 29.86. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Stadler Rail AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, SRAIL trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 29.86, fair value CHF 14.75, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SRAIL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 29.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 14.75). For Stadler Rail AG the two are CHF 15.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Stadler Rail AG worth?
The market values Stadler Rail AG at about CHF 3.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is CHF 29.86; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 14.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SRAIL?
Our models span a range for Stadler Rail AG: cautious scenario CHF 7.43, base CHF 14.75, optimistic CHF 16.47 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price CHF 29.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SRAIL?
Stadler Rail AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.4 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 14.75 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.7, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 9.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Stadler Rail AG (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 12.6%, debt of 0.62 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SRAIL from its 52-week high?
Stadler Rail AG trades at CHF 29.86, about 5% below its 52-week high of CHF 31.42 and 70% above the low of CHF 17.55 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 14.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Stadler Rail AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Canadian National Railway Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Stadler Rail AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price CHF 29.86, calculated fair value CHF 14.75 (−51%), Quality Score 43/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SRAIL calculated?
We run Stadler Rail AG through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 14.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Stadler Rail AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was CHF 29.86. Our model-based fair value is CHF 14.75, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Stadler Rail AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 16.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (CHF 7.43 to CHF 16.47) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Stadler Rail AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL)?
The market capitalisation of Stadler Rail AG is CHF 3.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Stadler Rail AG is 0.68 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL)?
Earnings per share at Stadler Rail AG are CHF 1.05 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL)?
The dividend yield of Stadler Rail AG is 1.7% (payout 47.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL)?
The net margin of Stadler Rail AG is 2.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Stadler Rail AG is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Stadler Rail AG is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL)?
The operating margin of Stadler Rail AG is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL)?
Revenue at Stadler Rail AG is growing +40.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL)?
Earnings per share at Stadler Rail AG are growing +100% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL) generate?
The free cash flow of Stadler Rail AG is −CHF 560M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Stadler Rail AG (SRAIL) carry?
The net debt of Stadler Rail AG is CHF 275M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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