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1st Source Corporation (SRCE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of 1st Source Corporation stock $59.85, price $86.94, that is 31.2% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

1S 1st Source Corporation logo Broad data Nov 8, 2026

1st Source Corporation

SRCE · US
Solid, but expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 31% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 61/100
Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +10.3 %/yr in USD)
Highly profitable · 39.4% net margin (TTM)
0.5% dividend yield · Low payout
Wide moat 67/100
Upbeat coverage
Broad data
Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
Insiders sold $43,945 (6M)
Fair value $59.85 · Overvalued
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$90.82 $37.11 Fair Value $59.85 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $37.11 – $90.82 · fair‑value band $50.26 – $82.17 · the $86.94 price screens above the $59.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

1st Source Corporation operates as the bank holding company for 1st Source Bank that provides commercial and consumer banking services, trust and wealth advisory services, and insurance products to individual and business clients in the United States.

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The company's consumer banking services, which include checking and savings accounts; certificates of deposit; health savings and individual retirement accounts; online and mobile banking products; consumer loans, real estate mortgage loans, and home equity lines of credit; and financial planning, financial literacy, and other consultative services, as well as debit and credit cards.

It also provides commercial, small business, agricultural, and real estate loans for financing of industrial and commercial properties, equipment, inventories, accounts receivables, acquisition, and general corporate purposes; and commercial leasing, treasury management, payment services, Fedwires, ACH and merchant services, and retirement planning services, as well as construction and permanent loans and tax equity investments for community solar, commercial and industrial, small utility scale, university, and municipal projects.

In addition, the company offers trust, investment, agency, and custodial services for individual, estate and trust, corporate, and not-for-profit customers, as well as employee benefit plans and charitable foundations.

Further, it provides equipment loan and lease products for construction equipment, aircraft, autos and light trucks, and medium and heavy-duty trucks; and financing services for construction equipment, new and pre-owned private and cargo aircraft, and various vehicle types for fleet purposes.

Additionally, it offers property, casualty, individual and group health, and life insurance products and services for individuals and businesses; and owns and manages available-for-sale investment securities. 1st Source Corporation was founded in 1863 and is headquartered in South Bend, Indiana.

Stock analysis

1st Source Corporation (SRCE) currently trades at $86.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $59.85, 31% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $77.33 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $86.94 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $28.11, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $50.26 (bear) to $82.17 (bull), the price of $86.94 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

1st Source Corporation reported revenue of $600M in FY2025 versus $355M in FY2021, a compound +14.0%/yr. Reported net income was $158M in FY2025, compounding +7.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $2.1B Mid · P/E ratio 11.9 · P/S ratio 4.65 · EPS (TTM) $7.29 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 39.4% · Return on equity 13.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −31%, SRCE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $50.26 Fair Value $59.85 Bull $82.17
Price $86.94 · Downside -31.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.91 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $50.26 $59.85 $82.17 76
Gordon GGM $15.10 $32.39 $53.32 66
DDM Multi-Stage $15.10 $23.82 $33.39 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $15.10 $32.39 $53.32 66
DDM Multi-Stage $15.10 $23.82 $33.39 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $64.07 $85.43 $106.79 63
P/B Multiple $51.93 $69.23 $86.54 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $24.73 $33.13 $49.45 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $50.26 $59.85 $82.17 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 38
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 64
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 90
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 3
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 72
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 93
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 64
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 86
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 89
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $43,945 and none bought.

  • SaleBrett A. BauerTreasurer and CFO500 shares at $87.89$43,945Aug 10, 2026
  • SaleJeffrey L BuhrExecutive Vice President1,175 shares at $66.14$77,715Dec 15, 2025
  • SaleJohn B GriffithExec VP / Secy 1st Source Bank1,900 shares at $66.01$125,419Dec 10, 2025
  • Plan buyMelody BirminghamDirector2× since Nov 14, 2025: 108 shares, avg. $65.23$7,048Feb 13, 2026

Plus 24 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.4% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.6% vs 11.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 34%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

SRCE screens overvalued: fair value 31% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −31.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 13.5% · Above median
Return on assets 1.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) 39.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 55.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 8.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.06× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 11.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.65× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 4.65× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 9.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 9.8× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.37× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)44 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)54 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)9 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs SRCE
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs SRCE
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs SRCE
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs SRCE
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs SRCE
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs SRCE
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.89 −37% vs SRCE
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs SRCE
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs SRCE
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs SRCE

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "1st Source Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SRCE

Frequently asked questions

Is 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $59.85 versus a price of $86.94, about 31% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SRCE?
Our model-based fair value for 1st Source Corporation is $59.85 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $86.94.
What is the quality score of SRCE?
1st Source Corporation has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for 1st Source Corporation (SRCE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $59.85 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $50.26, optimistic scenario $82.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the 1st Source Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $59.85, about 31% lower versus a price of $86.94 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $50.26, optimistic scenario $82.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of 1st Source Corporation (SRCE)?
1st Source Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $452M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does 1st Source Corporation pay a dividend?
1st Source Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 0.46% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) and when is the ex-dividend date?
1st Source Corporation pays a dividend of $0.4 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Nov 3, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1985. The payout ratio is 5.5% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of 1st Source Corporation (SRCE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For 1st Source Corporation it is $59.85 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $86.94. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is 1st Source Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, SRCE trades above its calculated fair value: price $86.94, fair value $59.85, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SRCE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($86.94); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($59.85). For 1st Source Corporation the two are $27.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is 1st Source Corporation worth?
The market values 1st Source Corporation at about $2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $86.94; our models calculate a fair value of $59.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SRCE?
Our models span a range for 1st Source Corporation: cautious scenario $50.26, base $59.85, optimistic $82.17 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $86.94). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SRCE?
1st Source Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $59.85 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 11.8. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 1.7, P/S 4.7, EV/EBITDA 9.8.
What is the PEG ratio of SRCE?
The PEG ratio of 1st Source Corporation is 1.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of 1st Source Corporation (SRCE)?
Balance-sheet figures for 1st Source Corporation (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 13.5%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SRCE from its 52-week high?
1st Source Corporation trades at $86.94, about 4% below its 52-week high of $90.82 and 48% above the low of $58.69 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $59.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to 1st Source Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is 1st Source Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $86.94, calculated fair value $59.85 (−31%), Quality Score 61/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SRCE calculated?
We run 1st Source Corporation through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $59.85 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. 1st Source Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of 1st Source Corporation (SRCE)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $86.94. Our model-based fair value is $59.85, about 31% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with 1st Source Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($82.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) come from?
Earnings per share at 1st Source Corporation grew +11.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.3 %, EBIT margin −0.2 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of 1st Source Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of 1st Source Corporation (SRCE)?
The market capitalisation of 1st Source Corporation is $2.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of 1st Source Corporation (SRCE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of 1st Source Corporation is 4.65 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of 1st Source Corporation (SRCE)?
Earnings per share at 1st Source Corporation are $7.29 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of 1st Source Corporation (SRCE)?
The dividend yield of 1st Source Corporation is 0.5% (payout 5.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of 1st Source Corporation (SRCE)?
The net margin of 1st Source Corporation is 39.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of 1st Source Corporation (SRCE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of 1st Source Corporation is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of 1st Source Corporation (SRCE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of 1st Source Corporation is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of 1st Source Corporation (SRCE)?
The operating margin of 1st Source Corporation is 55.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at 1st Source Corporation (SRCE)?
Revenue at 1st Source Corporation is growing +8.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at 1st Source Corporation (SRCE)?
Earnings per share at 1st Source Corporation are growing +18.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) generate?
The free cash flow of 1st Source Corporation is $213M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) carry?
The net debt of 1st Source Corporation is $271M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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