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SSP Group (SSPPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of SSP Group $5.21, price $2.54, upside +105.1%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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SG
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
SSP Group
SSPPF · USCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value $5.21 · Strongly undervalued (+105.1%)
!Quality 47/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +20.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -0.8% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓1.7% dividend yield · Cash covered
!Narrow moat 26/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.69 – $7.35 · fair‑value band $3.12 – $7.31 · the $2.54 price screens below the $5.21 fair value. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
SSP Group plc operates food and beverage outlets in North America, Europe, the United Kingdom, Ireland, the Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and internationally.
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SSP Group plc operates food and beverage outlets in North America, Europe, the United Kingdom, Ireland, the Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and internationally. The company engages in designing, creating, and operating restaurants, bars, cafés, lounges, and convenience retail outlets at airports, railway stations, motorway service areas, hospitals, and shopping centers. It also operates sandwich shops and bakeries. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
SSP Group (SSPPF) currently trades at $2.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.21, implying the stock looks roughly 51.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $10.83 per share, and 13 of the 16 models we run sit above the $2.54 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.6600, and 3 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.12 (bear) to $7.31 (bull), the price of $2.54 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
SSP Group reported revenue of £3.6B in FY2025 versus £834M in FY2021, a compound +44.5%/yr. Reported net income was −£74.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.0B · P/S ratio 0.51 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0500 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin −2.0% · Return on equity 4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 105%, SSPPF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.12
Fair Value $5.21
Bull $7.31
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$10.00
$17.15
$28.06
78
Growth DCF
$9.84
$16.12
$25.12
77
Owner Earnings
$3.29
$6.00
$10.12
74
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$10.00
$17.15
$28.06
78
Owner Earnings
$3.29
$6.00
$10.12
74
5Y Revenue Exit
$5.80
$9.26
$13.70
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$9.32
$16.48
$25.36
74
10Y Revenue Exit
$7.19
$10.83
$15.98
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$9.44
$15.66
$24.87
67
Earnings-Based
EPV
$2.54
$3.00
$3.37
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.4000
$0.7300
$1.00
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.4000
$0.6600
$0.7700
67
Multiples
EV/EBIT
$5.45
$7.53
$9.61
66
EV/EBITDA
$9.86
$13.41
$16.96
67
EV/Revenue
$3.42
$5.22
$7.03
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.0700
$0.0900
$0.1400
53
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$9.84
$16.12
$25.12
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$5.80
$9.31
$13.86
72
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder
$2.83
$3.67
$4.59
72
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
47/100
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Profitability
31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
12
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
34
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
8
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
83
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.1% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−29.6% (2020) → 7.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−16.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in GBP, UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −17.9% a year for the price and +2.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+4.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.8%
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Compare SSP Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 207 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCD | $233.60 | $162.81 | −30% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $93.96 | $35.83 | −62% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $32.32 | $35.55 | +10% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $138.28 | $76.78 | −44% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | $71.48 | $73.34 | +3% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $199.75 | $175.20 | −12% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $40.80 | $50.76 | +24% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $158.45 | $128.55 | −19% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $301.81 | $233.22 | −23% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $37.89 | $10.27 | −73% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is SSP Group (SSPPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.21 versus a price of $2.54, about +105% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SSPPF?
Our model-based fair value for SSP Group is $5.21 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.54.
What is the quality score of SSPPF?
SSP Group has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SSP Group (SSPPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.21 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.12, optimistic scenario $7.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SSP Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.21, about +105% upside versus a price of $2.54 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $3.12, optimistic scenario $7.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SSP Group (SSPPF)?
SSP Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £3.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does SSP Group pay a dividend?
SSP Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into SSP Group (SSPPF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SSP Group would have to grow free cash flow by -16.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SSPPF use?
Our models discount SSP Group at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.93, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SSP Group that is -16.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SSP Group (SSPPF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SSP Group grew +20.5 % a year. The price currently implies -16.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SSP Group (SSPPF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SSP Group (-16.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SSP Group (SSPPF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 31.69 %: that much free cash flow SSP Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SSP Group (SSPPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SSP Group it is $5.21 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.54. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SSP Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SSPPF trades below its calculated fair value: price $2.54, fair value $5.21, a gap of about +105% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SSPPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.21). For SSP Group the two are $2.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SSP Group worth?
The market values SSP Group at about $2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.54; our models calculate a fair value of $5.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SSPPF?
Our models span a range for SSP Group: cautious scenario $3.12, base $5.21, optimistic $7.31 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of SSP Group (SSPPF)?
Balance-sheet figures for SSP Group (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.4%, debt of 9.72 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to SSP Group?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SSP Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.54, calculated fair value $5.21 (+105%), Quality Score 47/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SSPPF calculated?
We run SSP Group through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. SSP Group currently trades 51 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SSP Group (SSPPF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.54. Our model-based fair value is $5.21, about +105% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SSP Group right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($3.12). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($3.12 to $7.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of SSP Group
How large is the market capitalisation of SSP Group (SSPPF)?
The market capitalisation of SSP Group is $2.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SSP Group (SSPPF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SSP Group is 0.51 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SSP Group (SSPPF)?
Earnings per share at SSP Group are $−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SSP Group (SSPPF)?
The dividend yield of SSP Group is 1.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SSP Group (SSPPF)?
The net margin of SSP Group is −2.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SSP Group (SSPPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SSP Group is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SSP Group (SSPPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SSP Group is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SSP Group (SSPPF)?
The operating margin of SSP Group is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SSP Group (SSPPF)?
Revenue at SSP Group is growing +6.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SSP Group (SSPPF)?
Earnings per share at SSP Group are growing +106% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SSP Group (SSPPF) carry?
The net debt of SSP Group is £1.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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