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Shotspotter Inc (SSTI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Shotspotter Inc $6.93, price $5.68, upside +22.0%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · US · ISIN US82536T1079

SI Shotspotter Inc logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Shotspotter Inc

SSTI · US

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value $6.93 · Undervalued (+22%)
!Quality 46/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +17.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -15.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$50.08 $5.49 Fair Value $6.93 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.49 – $50.08 · fair‑value band $4.63 – $10.53 · the $5.68 price screens below the $6.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

SoundThinking, Inc., a public safety technology company, provides data-driven solutions and strategic advisory services for law enforcement, security teams, and civic leadership.

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SoundThinking, Inc., a public safety technology company, provides data-driven solutions and strategic advisory services for law enforcement, security teams, and civic leadership. Its SafetySmart platform that includes data-driven tools comprising ShotSpotter, an outdoor gunshot detection, location, and alerting system; CrimeTracer, an agency-wide crime data and intelligence platform that enables investigators, analysts, patrol officers and command staff to search through criminal justice records from across jurisdictions, leverage dashboards, and AI-assisted tools to generate tactical leads and make intelligent connections to solve cases; CaseBuilder, a one-stop investigative case management system for tracking, reporting and collaborating on cases; ResourceRouter, a software that directs the deployment of patrol and community anti-violence resources; PlateRanger powered by Rekor, an automatic license plate recognition and vehicle identification solution; and SafePointe, an artificial intelligence-based weapons detection system. The company also offers ShotSpotter for Campus and ShotSpotter for Corporate, to universities, corporate campuses, and key infrastructure centers to mitigate risk and enhance security by notifying authorities of outdoor gunfire incidents and saving critical minutes for first responders to arrive. In addition, it provides perimeter-based sniper gunshot detection solutions. The company sells its solutions through its direct sales teams. The company was formerly known as ShotSpotter, Inc. and changed its name to SoundThinking, Inc. in April 2023. SoundThinking, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.

Stock analysis

Shotspotter Inc (SSTI) currently trades at $5.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.93, implying the stock looks roughly 18.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $7.74 per share, and 6 of the 10 models we run sit above the $5.68 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $3.04, and 4 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $4.63 (bear) to $10.53 (bull), the price of $5.68 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Shotspotter Inc reported revenue of $104M in FY2025 versus $58.2M in FY2021, a compound +15.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$9.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $101M · P/S ratio 1.01 · EPS (TTM) $−1.16 · Net margin −9.0% · Return on equity −21.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.4% · Operating margin −24.3% · Revenue (TTM) $100.0M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at 22%, SSTI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.63 Fair Value $6.93 Bull $10.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $5.17 $7.45 $12.67 79
Growth DCF $5.01 $7.74 $11.66 78
5Y EBITDA Exit $3.50 $4.85 $6.63 76
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $5.17 $7.45 $12.67 79
5Y Revenue Exit $4.83 $7.83 $12.28 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $3.50 $4.85 $6.63 76
10Y Revenue Exit $4.79 $7.60 $11.86 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $4.10 $5.61 $7.89 69
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $2.59 $3.04 $3.50 67
EV/Revenue $4.62 $6.08 $7.54 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.79 $3.73 $5.57 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $5.01 $7.74 $11.66 78
Rev-Margin DCF $4.83 $7.78 $11.99 71

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 12

Profitability 26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 34
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 54
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 80
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 24
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 11
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 74
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +24.3% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.8% (2020) → −8.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.0% a year for the price and +4.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+4.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+8.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+7.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+7.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+6.2%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 721 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside +22% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −15% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −24% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −15% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.40× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.01× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 20.8× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.05× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)63 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 38
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 30

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SAP SE SAP €184.18 €159.06 −14%
Shopify Inc SHOP $142.34 $64.36 −55%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $69.89 $104.82 +50%
Salesforce, Inc CRM $233.28 $344.41 +48%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $140.78 $154.86 +10%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $309.09 $225.14 −27%
Snowflake Inc SNOW $334.81 $75.08 −78%
Datadog, Inc DDOG $251.49 $32.92 −87%
Adobe Inc ADBE $238.25 $454.04 +91%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $263.68 $177.51 −33%

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Shotspotter Inc · Fair Value
$6.93 +18%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shotspotter Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SSTI

Frequently asked questions

Is Shotspotter Inc (SSTI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.93 versus a price of $5.68, about +22% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SSTI?
Our model-based fair value for Shotspotter Inc is $6.93 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.68.
What is the quality score of SSTI?
Shotspotter Inc has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shotspotter Inc (SSTI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.93 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.63, optimistic scenario $10.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shotspotter Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.93, about +22% upside versus a price of $5.68 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4.63, optimistic scenario $10.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shotspotter Inc (SSTI)?
Shotspotter Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $100.0M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shotspotter Inc (SSTI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shotspotter Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +8.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SSTI use?
Our models discount Shotspotter Inc at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.18, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shotspotter Inc that is +8.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shotspotter Inc (SSTI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shotspotter Inc grew +17.9 % a year. The price currently implies +8.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shotspotter Inc (SSTI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shotspotter Inc (+8.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shotspotter Inc (SSTI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.69 %: that much free cash flow Shotspotter Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shotspotter Inc (SSTI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shotspotter Inc it is $6.93 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $5.68. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shotspotter Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SSTI trades below its calculated fair value: price $5.68, fair value $6.93, a gap of about +22% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SSTI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.93). For Shotspotter Inc the two are $1.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shotspotter Inc worth?
The market values Shotspotter Inc at about $101M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $5.68; our models calculate a fair value of $6.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SSTI?
Our models span a range for Shotspotter Inc: cautious scenario $4.63, base $6.93, optimistic $10.53 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $5.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of SSTI?
The PEG ratio of Shotspotter Inc is 1.05 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shotspotter Inc (SSTI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shotspotter Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −21.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SSTI from its 52-week high?
Shotspotter Inc trades at $5.68, about 54% below its 52-week high of $12.42 and 3% above the low of $5.49 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shotspotter Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shotspotter Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $5.68, calculated fair value $6.93 (+22%), Quality Score 46/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SSTI calculated?
We run Shotspotter Inc through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Shotspotter Inc currently trades 22 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shotspotter Inc (SSTI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $5.68. Our model-based fair value is $6.93, about +22% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shotspotter Inc right now?
Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($4.63 to $10.53) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Shotspotter Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Shotspotter Inc (SSTI)?
The market capitalisation of Shotspotter Inc is $101M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shotspotter Inc (SSTI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shotspotter Inc is 1.01 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shotspotter Inc (SSTI)?
Earnings per share at Shotspotter Inc are $−1.16. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Shotspotter Inc (SSTI)?
The net margin of Shotspotter Inc is −9.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shotspotter Inc (SSTI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shotspotter Inc is −21.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shotspotter Inc (SSTI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shotspotter Inc is −2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shotspotter Inc (SSTI)?
The operating margin of Shotspotter Inc is −24.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shotspotter Inc (SSTI)?
Revenue at Shotspotter Inc is growing −14.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shotspotter Inc (SSTI)?
Earnings per share at Shotspotter Inc are growing +340% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Shotspotter Inc (SSTI) hold?
Shotspotter Inc holds more cash than debt, $9.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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