SoundThinking, Inc (SSTI) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $101M
SoundThinking, Inc
SSTI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $5.62 to $2.07 (−63.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −6.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 74% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.89 – $50.08 · fair‑value band $1.74 – $2.40 · the $7.92 price screens above the $2.07 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
SoundThinking, Inc (SSTI) currently trades at $7.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.07, implying the stock looks roughly 73.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, SoundThinking, Inc generated revenue of $100.0M at a net margin of -15.0%. Revenue declined 14.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -21.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $9.8M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.74 (bear case) to $2.40 (bull case); at $7.92, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -74%, SSTI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($7.72) versus Multiples ($2.54). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
SoundThinking, Inc., a public safety technology company, provides data-driven solutions and strategic advisory services for law enforcement, security teams, and civic leadership.
Full company description
SoundThinking, Inc., a public safety technology company, provides data-driven solutions and strategic advisory services for law enforcement, security teams, and civic leadership. Its SafetySmart platform that includes data-driven tools comprising ShotSpotter, an outdoor gunshot detection, location, and alerting system; CrimeTracer, an agency-wide crime data and intelligence platform that enables investigators, analysts, patrol officers and command staff to search through criminal justice records from across jurisdictions, leverage dashboards, and AI-assisted tools to generate tactical leads and make intelligent connections to solve cases; CaseBuilder, a one-stop investigative case management system for tracking, reporting and collaborating on cases; ResourceRouter, a software that directs the deployment of patrol and community anti-violence resources; PlateRanger powered by Rekor, an automatic license plate recognition and vehicle identification solution; and SafePointe, an artificial intelligence-based weapons detection system. The company also offers ShotSpotter for Campus and ShotSpotter for Corporate, to universities, corporate campuses, and key infrastructure centers to mitigate risk and enhance security by notifying authorities of outdoor gunfire incidents and saving critical minutes for first responders to arrive. In addition, it provides perimeter-based sniper gunshot detection solutions. The company sells its solutions through its direct sales teams. The company was formerly known as ShotSpotter, Inc. and changed its name to SoundThinking, Inc. in April 2023. SoundThinking, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
SoundThinking, Inc reported revenue of $104M in FY2025 versus $58.2M in FY2021, a compound +15.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$9.4M in FY2025.
SSTI screens 74% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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