Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd $15.94, price $14.20, upside +12.3%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.04 – $20.62 · fair‑value band $11.16 – $20.72 · the $14.20 price screens below the $15.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Suntory Beverage & Food Limited engages in the production and distribution of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, and food products in Japan, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the Americas.
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Suntory Beverage & Food Limited engages in the production and distribution of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, and food products in Japan, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the Americas. The company manufactures and distributes mineral water, coffee drinks, tea drinks, carbonated drinks, sports drinks, health supplements, and food for specified health uses. It offers its products under various brands, including Tennensui, BOSSOrangina, Oasis, Lucozade, Ribena, Tea+, -196, Horoyoi, Kaku Highball, Canadian Club and Dry Ready to Drink Whisky, On The Rocks, SUI Gin & Soda, Kodawari Sakaba no Lemon Sour, ALL-FREE, Non-Al Sakaba Highball, Non-Al Sakaba Lemon Sour, Non-Al de Wine no Kyuujitsu, The Premium Malt's, Suntory Nama Beer, Kinmugi, V, and Essence of Chicken; health and wellness products under the Sesamin EX, Varon, Vistra, and Provamed; and wines under the SUNTORY-Tomi Red, SUNTORY-Tomi Koshu, and Château Lagrange brand names. The company also provides spirits under Hibiki, yamazaki, Hakushu, kakubin, Toki, jim Beam, Maker's Mark, Basil Hayden, Laphroaig, Bowmore, Roku, Haku, and Tres Generaciones brand names. In addition, it operates restaurants, events, and franchise stores; produces and sells tonkatsu; manufactures and sells ice cream; and engages in specialty trading. The company was founded in 1921 and is based in Minato, Japan. Suntory Beverage & Food Limited operates as a subsidiary of Suntory Holdings Limited.
Stock analysis
Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY) currently trades at $14.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.94, implying the stock looks roughly 10.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $18.95 per share, and 17 of the 23 models we run sit above the $14.20 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.97, and 6 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.16 (bear) to $20.72 (bull), the price of $14.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd reported revenue of ¥1.7T in FY2025 versus ¥1.3T in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥88.7B in FY2025, compounding +6.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $8.8B · P/E ratio 16.0 · P/S ratio 0.83 · EPS (TTM) $0.8900 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 5.2% · Return on equity 8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 12%, STBFY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.16Fair Value $15.94Bull $20.72
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+8.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5% vs 8%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.8% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (28 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 90 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside+12% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Below median
Return on assets5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.9% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
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Is Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.94 versus a price of $14.20, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of STBFY?
Our model-based fair value for Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd is $15.94 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.20.
What is the quality score of STBFY?
Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.94 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.16, optimistic scenario $20.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.94, about +12% upside versus a price of $14.20 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $11.16, optimistic scenario $20.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY)?
Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.8T (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd pay a dividend?
Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.89% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +8.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of STBFY use?
Our models discount Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd that is +8.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd grew +7.8 % a year. The price currently implies +8.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (+8.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.92 %: that much free cash flow Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd it is $15.94 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $14.20. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, STBFY trades below its calculated fair value: price $14.20, fair value $15.94, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of STBFY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.94). For Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd the two are $1.74 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd worth?
The market values Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd at about $8.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $14.20; our models calculate a fair value of $15.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about STBFY?
Our models span a range for Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd: cautious scenario $11.16, base $15.94, optimistic $20.72 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $14.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of STBFY?
Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.94 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 5.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is STBFY from its 52-week high?
Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd trades at $14.20, about 16% below its 52-week high of $16.89 and 9% above the low of $13.04 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Inc, Monster Beverage Corporation, Nongfu Spring Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $14.20, calculated fair value $15.94 (+12%), Quality Score 55/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of STBFY calculated?
We run Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd currently trades 12 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $14.20. Our model-based fair value is $15.94, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range ($11.16 to $20.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY) come from?
Earnings per share at Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd grew +8.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.4 %, EBIT margin +3.7 %, tax rate +2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY)?
The market capitalisation of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd is $8.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd is 0.83 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY)?
Earnings per share at Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd are $0.8900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY)?
The dividend yield of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd is 2.9% (payout 46.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY)?
The net margin of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd is 5.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd is 7.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY)?
The operating margin of Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY)?
Revenue at Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd is growing +11.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY)?
Earnings per share at Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd are growing −3.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd (STBFY) hold?
Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd holds more cash than debt, ¥69.2B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026