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Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Scandinavian Tobacco Group $7.89, price $5.60, upside +40.9%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Scandinavian Tobacco Group
STBGY · USUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value $7.89 · Undervalued (+40.9%)
!Quality 58/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!6.9% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Moderate moat 46/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.80 – $8.36 · fair‑value band $4.88 – $12.07 · the $5.60 price screens below the $7.89 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S manufactures and sells tobacco products in North America, Europe, and internationally. It offers pipe and fine-cut tobacco, and machine-rolled and handmade cigars, as well as nicotine pouches.
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Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S manufactures and sells tobacco products in North America, Europe, and internationally. It offers pipe and fine-cut tobacco, and machine-rolled and handmade cigars, as well as nicotine pouches. The company markets its products under the Macanudo, CAO, Alec Bradley, Silencio, Cohiba, Punch, Partagas, La Gloria Cubana, Signature, La Paz, Mehari's, Panter, Captain Black, Erinmore, Mac Baren, BREAK, Bali Shag, Tiedemanns, XQS, Ambasciator Italico, Balmoral, Borkum Riff, Bugler, Café Crème, Clan, Colts, Crossroad, Cubero, Escort, Hajenius, Henri Wintermans, Kite, M by Colts, ACE, GRITT, Mercator, Petit, SLS SALSA, Stanwell, Talon, W.Ø. Larsen, and Winchester brand names. In addition, it offers contract manufacturing for third parties; and sells accessories. The company sells its products through wholesale, online, catalogue, and retail channels, as well as business to business. Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S was founded in 1750 and is based in Gentofte, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY) currently trades at $5.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.89, implying the stock looks roughly 29.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $10.46 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the $5.60 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $5.19, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $4.88 (bear) to $12.07 (bull), the price of $5.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Scandinavian Tobacco Group reported revenue of 8.7B DKK in FY2025 versus 8.2B DKK in FY2021, a compound +1.4%/yr. Reported net income was 644M DKK in FY2025, compounding −17.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $883M · P/E ratio 8.8 · P/S ratio 0.65 · EPS (TTM) $0.6400 · Dividend yield 6.9% · Net margin 7.4% · Return on equity 7.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 41%, STBGY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.88
Fair Value $7.89
Bull $12.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$3.16
$5.19
$7.76
79
Growth DCF
$3.30
$5.19
$7.47
78
Owner Earnings
$5.95
$8.85
$12.51
76
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$3.16
$5.19
$7.76
79
Owner Earnings
$5.95
$8.85
$12.51
76
5Y Revenue Exit
$4.07
$7.74
$12.30
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$7.18
$13.14
$19.88
74
5Y P/E Exit
$4.25
$8.04
$11.84
69
10Y Revenue Exit
$3.42
$6.39
$9.92
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
$5.38
$9.69
$14.83
67
10Y P/E Exit
$3.72
$6.57
$9.62
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$4.18
$8.52
$10.73
66
EPV
$4.54
$5.62
$6.52
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$4.78
$6.54
$8.16
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$4.78
$6.39
$8.02
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$9.69
$12.92
$16.15
63
P/S Multiple
$7.85
$10.46
$13.08
58
P/B Multiple
$7.85
$10.46
$13.08
55
EV/EBIT
$11.68
$16.70
$21.72
65
EV/EBITDA
$12.16
$17.34
$22.52
67
EV/Revenue
$5.35
$9.09
$12.82
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$4.10
$5.49
$8.19
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$3.30
$5.19
$7.47
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$4.07
$7.84
$11.85
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$6.42
$6.74
$7.31
76
ROIC Compounder
$4.54
$5.62
$6.52
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$7.06
$10.08
$13.10
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
58/100
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Profitability
34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
24
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
24
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.6% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
’14
’15
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’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
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’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+8.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.8% vs −4.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in DKK, Denmark: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.6% a year for the price and −0.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+1.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+1.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+1.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+1.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.4%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tobacco · 34 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Tobacco
Similar stocks
10 more Tobacco stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Morris International Inc PM | $190.82 | $112.99 | −41% |
| British American Tobacco p.l.c. BTI | $54.40 | $96.20 | +77% |
| Altria Group MO | $67.34 | $81.82 | +22% |
| ITC Limited ITC | ₹269.00 | ₹295.90 | +10% |
| KT&G Corporation 033780 | 174,300 KRW | 99,137 KRW | −43% |
| PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, HMSP | 635.00 IDR | 994.45 IDR | +57% |
| Godfrey Phillips India Limited GODFRYPHLP | ₹1,892 | ₹1,050 | −44% |
| TABAK TABAK | 17,940 CZK | 23,215 CZK | +29% |
| RLX Technology Inc RLX | $1.69 | $2.35 | +39% |
| China Tobacco International (HK) Company 6055 | HK$23.46 | HK$29.35 | +25% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.89 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $5.60, about +41% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of STBGY?
Our model-based fair value for Scandinavian Tobacco Group is $7.89 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $5.60.
What is the quality score of STBGY?
Scandinavian Tobacco Group has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.89 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.88, optimistic scenario $12.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Scandinavian Tobacco Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.89, about +41% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $5.60 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4.88, optimistic scenario $12.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY)?
Scandinavian Tobacco Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.9B DKK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Scandinavian Tobacco Group pay a dividend?
Scandinavian Tobacco Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.87% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Scandinavian Tobacco Group would have to grow free cash flow by +10.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of STBGY use?
Our models discount Scandinavian Tobacco Group at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.89, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Scandinavian Tobacco Group that is +10.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Scandinavian Tobacco Group grew +1.7 % a year. The price currently implies +10.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Scandinavian Tobacco Group (+10.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.99 %: that much free cash flow Scandinavian Tobacco Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Scandinavian Tobacco Group it is $7.89 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $5.60. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Scandinavian Tobacco Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, STBGY trades below its calculated fair value: price $5.60, fair value $7.89, a gap of about +41% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of STBGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.89). For Scandinavian Tobacco Group the two are $2.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Scandinavian Tobacco Group worth?
The market values Scandinavian Tobacco Group at about $883M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $5.60; our models calculate a fair value of $7.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about STBGY?
Our models span a range for Scandinavian Tobacco Group: cautious scenario $4.88, base $7.89, optimistic $12.07 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $5.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of STBGY?
Scandinavian Tobacco Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.89 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Scandinavian Tobacco Group (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.4%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is STBGY from its 52-week high?
Scandinavian Tobacco Group trades at $5.60, about 25% below its 52-week high of $7.51 and 17% above the low of $4.80 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Scandinavian Tobacco Group?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Philip Morris International Inc, British American Tobacco p.l.c., Altria Group, ITC Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Scandinavian Tobacco Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $5.60, calculated fair value $7.89 (+41%), Quality Score 58/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of STBGY calculated?
We run Scandinavian Tobacco Group through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Scandinavian Tobacco Group currently trades 29 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $5.60. Our model-based fair value is $7.89, about +41% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Scandinavian Tobacco Group right now?
Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($4.88 to $12.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY) come from?
Earnings per share at Scandinavian Tobacco Group grew −1.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.2 %, EBIT margin +1.6 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Scandinavian Tobacco Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY)?
The market capitalisation of Scandinavian Tobacco Group is $883M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Scandinavian Tobacco Group is 0.65 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY)?
Earnings per share at Scandinavian Tobacco Group are $0.6400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY)?
The dividend yield of Scandinavian Tobacco Group is 6.9% (payout 60.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY)?
The net margin of Scandinavian Tobacco Group is 7.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Scandinavian Tobacco Group is 7.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Scandinavian Tobacco Group is 10.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY)?
The operating margin of Scandinavian Tobacco Group is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY)?
Revenue at Scandinavian Tobacco Group is growing −5.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY)?
Earnings per share at Scandinavian Tobacco Group are growing −28.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STBGY) carry?
The net debt of Scandinavian Tobacco Group is 5.3B DKK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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