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Super Retail Group (SUL) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$2.9B

SR Super Retail Group SUL · AU
PriceA$13.58
Fair ValueA$16.70
Upside+23.0%
Quality65/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 4.7% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
5.09% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/15)
Moderate moat 49/100
Evidence: High Range A$12.52 – A$23.82 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 28 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from A$21.61 to A$16.70 (−22.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +4.6% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 23% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (A$12.52 to A$23.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

A$17.83 A$6.16 Fair Value A$16.70 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$6.16 – A$17.83 · fair‑value band A$12.52 – A$23.82 · the A$13.58 price screens below the A$16.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Super Retail Group (SUL) currently trades at A$13.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$16.70, implying the stock looks roughly 23.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Super Retail Group generated revenue of A$4.2B at a net margin of 4.7%. Revenue grew 4.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.2%. Net debt stands at A$1.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from A$12.52 (bear case) to A$23.82 (bull case); at A$13.58, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at 23%, SUL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF A$21.98 A$36.53 A$59.54 80
Residual Income A$6.24 A$8.22 A$24.47 76
Rev-Margin DCF A$8.14 A$10.27 A$13.06 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF A$22.11 A$37.94 A$63.85 38
Owner Earnings A$22.26 A$38.20 A$64.28 31
5Y Revenue Exit A$8.14 A$9.92 A$11.69 39
5Y EBITDA Exit A$16.74 A$27.37 A$40.31 41
5Y P/E Exit A$17.47 A$28.84 A$41.52 38
10Y Revenue Exit A$12.87 A$16.09 A$19.88 36
10Y EBITDA Exit A$18.43 A$28.48 A$42.94 37
10Y P/E Exit A$18.90 A$29.52 A$43.92 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd A$6.68 A$29.29 A$40.08 54
Lynch FV A$7.56 A$10.80 A$14.05 50
PEG = 1.0 A$7.56 A$10.80 A$14.05 46
EPV A$0.6500 A$0.7000 A$0.7500 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$16.21 A$21.61 A$27.01 63
P/S Multiple A$12.52 A$16.70 A$20.87 58
P/B Multiple A$12.52 A$16.70 A$20.87 55
EV/EBIT A$1.37 A$1.73 A$2.09 53
EV/EBITDA A$15.29 A$20.29 A$25.29 54
EV/Revenue A$1.01 A$1.33 A$1.64 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$2.93 A$3.92 A$5.85 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF A$21.98 A$36.53 A$59.54 80
Rev-Margin DCF A$8.14 A$10.27 A$13.06 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$6.24 A$8.22 A$24.47 76
ROIC Compounder A$0.6500 A$0.7000 A$0.7500 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E A$12.83 A$18.32 A$23.82 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$28.48) versus Economic Profit (A$0.7000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) A$4.2B
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.2%
Net margin 4.7%
Return on equity 15.2%
Free cash flow A$412M FY2025
P/E ratio 13.2
More key figures
Operating margin 8.5%
EPS (TTM) A$0.8600
Dividend yield 5.9%
EPS growth (YoY) -19.6%
Net debt A$1.2B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 67
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 64
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Super Retail Group Limited engages in the retail of auto, sports, and outdoor leisure products in Australia and New Zealand.

Full company description

Super Retail Group Limited engages in the retail of auto, sports, and outdoor leisure products in Australia and New Zealand. It offers automotive parts and accessories, handyman items, and tools and equipment, and marine and motorbike products, including batteries, car care products, exterior accessories, hand and power tools, in-car navigation systems, in-car stereo equipment, lighting and electrical products, oils, filters and additives, outdoor equipment and accessories, seat covers and interior accessories, spare parts, paints and panels, and performance products. The company also provides footwear, fitness and sports equipment, apparel, and related accessories; fishing products, such as lures, rods and reels, tackle boxes, fishing nets, and other products; camping products, including tents, pegs, ropes, cooking equipment, and clothing and hiking gears, as well as boating products comprising fishing rod holders, bilge pumps, and fish-finders; fitment and support services, including wiper blade, bulb, and battery installation; battery and oil recycling; and paint mixing and vehicle diagnostics. In addition, it offers apparel and equipment for mountain climbers, campers, hikers, adventure travelers, and others; and products for travel, touring, outdoor, garage, and shed. The company sells its products under the Supercheap Auto, rebel, BCF, and Macpac brands; and offers its products online. It operates various stores. The company was founded in 1972 and is based in Strathpine, Australia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Super Retail Group reported revenue of A$4.1B in FY2025 versus A$3.5B in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was A$222M in FY2025, compounding −7.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 72/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
A$4.1B
Latest YoY
+4.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+4.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+7.6%
Avg. growth/yr (24Y)
+14.7%
Revenue +4.2%/yr
FY21 A$3.5B
FY22 A$3.6B
FY23 A$3.8B
FY24 A$3.9B
FY25 A$4.1B
Net income −7.3%/yr
FY21 A$301M
FY22 A$241M
FY23 A$263M
FY24 A$240M
FY25 A$222M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Super Retail Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SUL

Peer Group

Specialty Retail · 221 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +23% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Above median
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Revenue growth 4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.1% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.56× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.50× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 5.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 4.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.14× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 64 · sector 31
FUTURE 21 · sector 23
PAST 61 · sector 27
HEALTH 100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 51

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY $827.04 $405.44 -51%
Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM $222.84 $164.16 -26%
Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA $479.57 $488.39 +2%
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS $208.89 $181.10 -13%
Best Buy Co BBY $83.98 $109.12 +30%
China Tourism Group 601888 ¥52.90 ¥40.40 -24%
Tractor Supply Company TSCO $31.01 $35.52 +15%
Murphy USA Inc MUSA $618.57 $423.35 -32%
Five Below, Inc FIVE $197.71 $117.29 -41%
Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 110.50 TWD 80.98 TWD -27%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Super Retail Group (SUL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$16.70 versus a price of A$13.58, about +23% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SUL?
Our model-based fair value for Super Retail Group is A$16.70 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is A$13.58.
What is the quality score of SUL?
Super Retail Group has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Super Retail Group (SUL)?
Super Retail Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$4.2B (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SUL?
The net profit margin of Super Retail Group is about 4.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Super Retail Group pay a dividend?
Super Retail Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.89% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 12, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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