Super Retail Group (SUL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$2.9B
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from A$21.61 to A$16.70 (−22.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +4.6% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 23% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (A$12.52 to A$23.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$6.16 – A$17.83 · fair‑value band A$12.52 – A$23.82 · the A$13.58 price screens below the A$16.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Super Retail Group (SUL) currently trades at A$13.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$16.70, implying the stock looks roughly 23.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Super Retail Group generated revenue of A$4.2B at a net margin of 4.7%. Revenue grew 4.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.2%. Net debt stands at A$1.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$12.52 (bear case) to A$23.82 (bull case); at A$13.58, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at 23%, SUL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$28.48) versus Economic Profit (A$0.7000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Super Retail Group Limited engages in the retail of auto, sports, and outdoor leisure products in Australia and New Zealand.
Full company description
Super Retail Group Limited engages in the retail of auto, sports, and outdoor leisure products in Australia and New Zealand. It offers automotive parts and accessories, handyman items, and tools and equipment, and marine and motorbike products, including batteries, car care products, exterior accessories, hand and power tools, in-car navigation systems, in-car stereo equipment, lighting and electrical products, oils, filters and additives, outdoor equipment and accessories, seat covers and interior accessories, spare parts, paints and panels, and performance products. The company also provides footwear, fitness and sports equipment, apparel, and related accessories; fishing products, such as lures, rods and reels, tackle boxes, fishing nets, and other products; camping products, including tents, pegs, ropes, cooking equipment, and clothing and hiking gears, as well as boating products comprising fishing rod holders, bilge pumps, and fish-finders; fitment and support services, including wiper blade, bulb, and battery installation; battery and oil recycling; and paint mixing and vehicle diagnostics. In addition, it offers apparel and equipment for mountain climbers, campers, hikers, adventure travelers, and others; and products for travel, touring, outdoor, garage, and shed. The company sells its products under the Supercheap Auto, rebel, BCF, and Macpac brands; and offers its products online. It operates various stores. The company was founded in 1972 and is based in Strathpine, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Super Retail Group reported revenue of A$4.1B in FY2025 versus A$3.5B in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was A$222M in FY2025, compounding −7.3%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $827.04 | $405.44 | -51% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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