Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (SWBI) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $736M

A solid business, but screening 36% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.27 – $29.55 · fair‑value band $6.82 – $11.36 · the $14.25 price screens above the $9.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (SWBI) currently trades at $14.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.09, implying the stock looks roughly 36.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc generated revenue of $524M at a net margin of 3.5%. Revenue grew 26.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.9%. Net debt stands at $25.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $6.82 (bear case) to $11.36 (bull case); at $14.25, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 91% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -36%, SWBI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($27.42) versus Economic Profit ($4.70). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells firearms worldwide. The company offers handguns, including revolvers and pistols; long guns, such as modern sporting rifles, pistol caliber carbines, and lever-action rifles; handcuffs; suppressors; and other firearm-related products.

Full company description

Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells firearms worldwide. The company offers handguns, including revolvers and pistols; long guns, such as modern sporting rifles, pistol caliber carbines, and lever-action rifles; handcuffs; suppressors; and other firearm-related products. It also provides manufacturing services comprising forging, heat treating, rapid prototyping, tooling, finishing, plating, machining, and custom plastic injection molding, assembly, and distribution services to other businesses; and sells parts purchased through third parties. The company sells its products to firearm enthusiasts, collectors, hunters, sportsmen, competitive shooters, individuals desiring home and personal protection, law enforcement, security agencies and officers, and military agencies. It markets its products through independent dealers, retailers, in-store retails, and direct to consumers, and rangeoperations; print, broadcast, and digital advertising campaigns; social and electronic media; and in-store retail merchandising strategies. Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. was founded in 1852 and is based in Maryville, Tennessee.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc reported revenue of $524M in FY2026 versus $864M in FY2022, a compound −11.8%/yr. Reported net income was $18.5M in FY2026, compounding −44.5%/yr from FY2022.

SWBI screens 36% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →

Peer Group

Aerospace & Defense · 226 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.