Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc stock $9.07, price $14.47, that is 37.3% below the price, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.27 – $20.77 · fair‑value band $6.80 – $11.33 · the $14.47 price screens above the $9.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells firearms worldwide. The company offers handguns, including revolvers and pistols; long guns, such as modern sporting rifles, pistol caliber carbines, and lever-action rifles; handcuffs; suppressors; and other firearm-related products.
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It also provides manufacturing services comprising forging, heat treating, rapid prototyping, tooling, finishing, plating, machining, and custom plastic injection molding, assembly, and distribution services to other businesses; and sells parts purchased through third parties.
The company sells its products to firearm enthusiasts, collectors, hunters, sportsmen, competitive shooters, individuals desiring home and personal protection, law enforcement, security agencies and officers, and military agencies.
It markets its products through independent dealers, retailers, in-store retails, and direct to consumers, and rangeoperations; print, broadcast, and digital advertising campaigns; social and electronic media; and in-store retail merchandising strategies.
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. was founded in 1852 and is based in Maryville, Tennessee.
Stock analysis
Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI) currently trades at $14.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.07, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $20.99 per share, and 12 of the 25 models we run sit above the $14.47 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.35, and 13 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $6.80 (bear) to $11.33 (bull), the price of $14.47 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2020: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2020.
Smith & Wesson Brands Inc reported revenue of $524M in FY2026 versus $864M in FY2022, a compound −11.8%/yr. Reported net income was $18.5M in FY2026, compounding −44.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $658M Small · P/E ratio 26.8 · P/S ratio 1.19 · EPS (TTM) $0.5400 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 4.4% · Return on equity 6.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −37%, SWBI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$6.80Fair Value $9.07Bull$11.33
Price $14.47 · Downside -37.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0105 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2020: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2020.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−33.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−37.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Per share before 2020divided by the spin-off factor 1.301
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−37.7% vs −10.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.2% a year for the price.
Compare Smith & Wesson Brands Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−37.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.6% · Below median
Return on assets3.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)4.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)1.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)32.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
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Is Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.07 versus a price of $14.47, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SWBI?
Our model-based fair value for Smith & Wesson Brands Inc is $9.07 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.47.
What is the quality score of SWBI?
Smith & Wesson Brands Inc has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.07 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.80, optimistic scenario $11.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Smith & Wesson Brands Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.07, about 37% lower versus a price of $14.47 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.80, optimistic scenario $11.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI)?
Smith & Wesson Brands Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $551M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Smith & Wesson Brands Inc pay a dividend?
Smith & Wesson Brands Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 3.59% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Smith & Wesson Brands Inc pays a dividend of $0.52 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 17, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2020. The payout ratio is 96.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.88 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Smith & Wesson Brands Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -7.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -13.1 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SWBI use?
Our models discount Smith & Wesson Brands Inc at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.82, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Smith & Wesson Brands Inc that is -7.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Smith & Wesson Brands Inc grew -13.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -7.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (-7.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.73 %: that much free cash flow Smith & Wesson Brands Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Smith & Wesson Brands Inc it is $9.07 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $14.47. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Smith & Wesson Brands Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, SWBI trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.47, fair value $9.07, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SWBI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.07). For Smith & Wesson Brands Inc the two are $5.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Smith & Wesson Brands Inc worth?
The market values Smith & Wesson Brands Inc at about $658M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $14.47; our models calculate a fair value of $9.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SWBI?
Our models span a range for Smith & Wesson Brands Inc: cautious scenario $6.80, base $9.07, optimistic $11.33 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $14.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SWBI?
Smith & Wesson Brands Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.8 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.07 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2021 to 2026), earnings ex one-offs: 15.1. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.8, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 10.3.
What is the PEG ratio of SWBI?
The PEG ratio of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc is 0.84 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 6.6%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SWBI from its 52-week high?
Smith & Wesson Brands Inc trades at $14.47, about 13% below its 52-week high of $16.67 and 81% above the low of $7.98 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Smith & Wesson Brands Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Smith & Wesson Brands Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $14.47, calculated fair value $9.07 (−37%), Quality Score 69/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SWBI calculated?
We run Smith & Wesson Brands Inc through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $9.07 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Smith & Wesson Brands Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $14.47. Our model-based fair value is $9.07, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Smith & Wesson Brands Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI) come from?
Earnings per share at Smith & Wesson Brands Inc grew −11.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.5 %, EBIT margin −12.2 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI)?
The market capitalisation of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc is $658M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc is 1.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI)?
Earnings per share at Smith & Wesson Brands Inc are $0.5400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI)?
The dividend yield of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc is 3.6% (payout 96.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI)?
The net margin of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc is 4.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc is 15.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI)?
The operating margin of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI)?
Revenue at Smith & Wesson Brands Inc is growing +32.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI)?
Earnings per share at Smith & Wesson Brands Inc are growing +86.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI) carry?
The net debt of Smith & Wesson Brands Inc is $25.0M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026