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Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · US · Market cap $133M

What is Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC really worth?

SI Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC logo Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC SWIOU · US
Price from Aug 21, 2026$16,500
Fair Value$15,764
Upside−4.5%
Quality79/100

A strong business, currently priced close to our fair value of $15,764.

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Strengths

Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (8/13)

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +12.0 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -0.8% net margin · fiscal year 2022 14.9%
!Narrow moat 24/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $11,624 to $33,656
!Weak on valuation: 27 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range $11,624 – $33,656

Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 11 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 22, 2026, revised from $15,717 to $15,764 (+0.3%) since Aug 13, 2026.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide ($11,624 to $33,656). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$17,000 $2,051 Fair Value $15,764 Jul 2015 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2,051 – $17,000 · fair‑value band $11,624 – $33,656 · the $16,500 price screens above the $15,764 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

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Analysis

Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU) currently trades at $16,500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15,764, implying the stock looks roughly 4.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $119,177 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the $16,500 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9,010, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC generated revenue of $212M at a net margin of −0.8%. Revenue grew 39.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −2.5%. Net debt stands at $12.0M. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $11,624 (bear case) to $33,656 (bull case); at $16,500, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 83% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −4%, SWIOU screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $84,982 $119,177 $218,957 75
Growth DCF $79,582 $128,581 $205,127 75
EPV $38,133 $42,724 $46,451 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $84,982 $119,177 $218,957 75
Owner Earnings $79,647 $156,582 $290,853 70
5Y Revenue Exit $55,115 $85,817 $149,290 68
5Y EBITDA Exit $51,102 $77,719 $129,420 71
5Y P/E Exit $73,661 $152,616 $258,128 66
10Y Revenue Exit $64,867 $119,210 $147,217 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $63,564 $111,847 $187,181 64
10Y P/E Exit $77,648 $153,236 $272,684 59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $43,676 $304,593 $427,450 61
Lynch FV $157,363 $224,805 $292,246 59
PEG = 1.0 $157,363 $224,805 $292,246 55
EPV $38,133 $42,724 $46,451 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $8,689 $14,553 $18,889 66
DDM Multi-Stage $8,689 $13,803 $15,657 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $67,441 $89,922 $112,402 63
P/S Multiple $38,743 $51,657 $64,571 58
P/B Multiple $18,154 $24,205 $30,257 55
EV/EBIT $44,510 $59,390 $74,270 66
EV/EBITDA $32,403 $43,247 $54,091 67
EV/Revenue $36,030 $51,527 $67,024 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6,724 $9,010 $13,447 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $79,582 $128,581 $205,127 75
Rev-Margin DCF $60,252 $98,233 $178,309 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income $43,499 $72,169 $1,100,664 61
ROIC Compounder $46,892 $64,549 $84,930 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $184,430 $263,471 $342,513 65

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($263,471) versus Asset-Based ($9,010). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 0.63 TTM
EPS (TTM) $−631.09
Dividend yield 8.4%
Net margin 14.9% FY2022
Return on equity −2.5% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin −0.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $212M TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +39.1% 3y avg +21.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $64.6M FY2022
Net debt $12.0M FY2022 · ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 79/100

Of which business quality 82 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81

Profitability 83
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 82
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 75
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 79
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 97
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 89
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy, LLC produces and sells ethanol, distillers grain, corn syrup, corn oil, and carbon dioxide products in the United States, Mexico, and the Pacific Rim. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Council Bluffs, Iowa.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2018 – FY2022 · reported fiscal years

Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC reported revenue of $387M in FY2022 versus $215M in FY2018, a compound +15.8%/yr. Reported net income was $57.8M in FY2022.

Growth Quality 78/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2022)
$387M
Latest YoY
+27.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+21.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (9Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+117.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+66.2% (57.8 + 8.4)
Revenue +15.8%/yr
FY18 $215M
FY19 $217M
FY20 $199M
FY21 $303M
FY22 $387M
Net income
FY18 −$2.7M
FY19 −$8.5M
FY20 −$442K
FY21 $8.6M
FY22 $57.8M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SWIOU

Peer Group

Energy · 1252 stocks

How this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Biofuels” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)

Quality Score 79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −5% · Above median
Return on assets −1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −1% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 39% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 8.4% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.07× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Energy median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.10× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.63× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 2.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 14.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE27 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 8
PAST0 · sector 20
HEALTH97 · sector 91
DIVIDEND100 · sector 54

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

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10 more Biofuels stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM $156.44 $88.98 −43%
Chevron Corporation CVX $201.86 $90.66 −55%
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China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 ¥44.07 ¥34.97 −21%
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $130.35 $90.15 −31%
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Frequently asked questions

Is Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15,764 versus the last price from Aug 21, 2026 of $16,500, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SWIOU?
Our model-based fair value for Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC is $15,764 (as of Aug 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 21, 2026): $16,500.
What is the quality score of SWIOU?
Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU)?
Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $212M (latest available figure, as of Aug 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SWIOU?
The net profit margin of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC is about −0.8%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC pay a dividend?
Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.41% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 22, 2026).
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