Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC $16,260, price $20,000, upside -18.7%, quality 80 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2,051 – $20,000 · fair‑value band $10,152 – $25,801 · the $20,000 price screens above the $16,260 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 17, 2026.
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Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy, LLC produces and sells ethanol, distillers grain, corn syrup, corn oil, and carbon dioxide products in the United States, Mexico, and the Pacific Rim. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Council Bluffs, Iowa.
Stock analysis
Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU) currently trades at $20,000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16,260, 18.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $143,633 per share, and 13 of the 16 models we run sit above the $20,000 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9,010, and 3 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $10,152 (bear) to $25,801 (bull), the price of $20,000 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC reported revenue of $387M in FY2022 versus $215M in FY2018, a compound +15.8%/yr. Reported net income was $57.8M in FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $180M · P/S ratio 0.63 · EPS (TTM) $−631.09 · Dividend yield 8.4% · Net margin 14.9% · Return on equity −2.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4% · Operating margin −0.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 97% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at −19%, SWIOU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$10,152Fair Value $16,260Bull$25,801
Price $20,000 · Upside -18.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+27.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+117.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+66.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+57.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.4%
Profit margin 2017 to 2022 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 14%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−21.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −23.3% a year for the price.
Compare Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Residential · 50 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−18.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets36.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)−0.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−0.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth39.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)8.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Residential median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SWIOU
Frequently asked questions
Is Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16,260 versus a price of $20,000, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SWIOU?
Our model-based fair value for Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC is $16,260 (as of Oct 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $20,000.
What is the quality score of SWIOU?
Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16,260 (as of Oct 17, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10,152, optimistic scenario $25,801. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16,260, about −19% upside versus a price of $20,000 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10,152, optimistic scenario $25,801. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU)?
Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $212M (latest available figure, as of Oct 17, 2026).
Does Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC pay a dividend?
Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC currently shows a dividend yield of 8.41% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC would have to grow free cash flow by -21.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.0 % per year. As of Oct 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SWIOU use?
Our models discount Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC that is -21.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC grew +12.0 % a year. The price currently implies -21.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 35.88 %: that much free cash flow Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC it is $16,260 per share (as of Oct 17, 2026), against a price of $20,000. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 17, 2026, SWIOU trades above its calculated fair value: price $20,000, fair value $16,260, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SWIOU?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($20,000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16,260). For Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC the two are $3,740 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC worth?
The market values Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC at about $180M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 17, 2026). Per share that is $20,000; our models calculate a fair value of $16,260 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SWIOU?
Our models span a range for Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC: cautious scenario $10,152, base $16,260, optimistic $25,801 per share (as of Oct 17, 2026, price $20,000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (as of Oct 17, 2026): return on equity −2.5%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SWIOU from its 52-week high?
Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC trades at $20,000, at its 52-week high of $20,000 and 97% above the low of $10,150 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16,260 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Comcast Holdings, Essex Property Trust, Inc, Sun Communities, Inc, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 17, 2026: price $20,000, calculated fair value $16,260 (−19%), Quality Score 80/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SWIOU calculated?
We run Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16,260, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU)?
The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was $20,000. Our model-based fair value is $16,260, about −19% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC right now?
A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range ($10,152 to $25,801) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU)?
The market capitalisation of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC is $180M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC is 0.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU)?
Earnings per share at Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC are $−631.09. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU)?
The dividend yield of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC is 8.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU)?
The net margin of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC is 14.9% (fiscal year 2022). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC is −2.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC is 6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU)?
The operating margin of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC is −0.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU)?
Revenue at Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC is growing +39.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC (SWIOU) carry?
The net debt of Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy LLC is $12.0M (fiscal year 2022, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 17, 2026