Sword Group S.E (SWP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Sword Group S.E stock €39.01, price €33.65, upside +15.9%, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €24.04 – €39.61 · fair‑value band €23.81 – €50.72 · the €33.65 price screens below the €39.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Sword Group S.E. provides IT and software solutions in Luxembourg, Europe, and Asia.
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The company offers digital services, comprising software and agile product development, DevOps, application modernization, and quality assurance; data and AI services, consisting of predictive analytics, data integration and visualization, dashboards and reports, modern data platform, and data hubs; digital workplace services, including digital ways of working, change management and adoption, benefits realization, device management, and Microsoft 365 implementation and migration, as well as collaboration, communication, and productivity; and platform and security services, such as hybrid cloud, cloud platform implementation and migration, data center and hosting, cloud and cyber security, hardware, network, and virtual apps and desktops.
It also provides digital transformation services, comprising service management, digital strategy, data-driven decision-making, front-line workers, process digitalization, operating in the cloud, project and programme delivery; managed services, such as service desk and application outsourcing, platform and application support, application hosting management; Microsoft managed services, Azure migration, and ISV onboarding to Azure; and information management services, including information governance, records management, data loss prevention, and content and migration services, as well as engineering, and subsurface data, and information management.
In addition, the company offers Sword Phusion, an engineering information management software; Sword Tell, a CAD software for watch manufacturers; Sword Venue, a toolbox that helps to plan and deliver venues; Sword Aequos for data viewing and filtering experiences; and Sword Webtransfer to deliver large files.
Sword Group S.E. was founded in 2000 and is based in Windhof, Luxembourg.
Stock analysis
Sword Group S.E (SWP) currently trades at €33.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €39.01, implying the stock looks roughly 14% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €56.38 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the €33.65 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €19.71, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €23.81 (bear) to €50.72 (bull), the price of €33.65 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Sword Group S.E reported revenue of €358M in FY2025 versus €215M in FY2021, a compound +13.6%/yr. Reported net income was €19.0M in FY2025, compounding +1.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €318M Small · P/E ratio 14.9 · P/S ratio 0.86 · EPS (TTM) €2.26 · Dividend yield 5.9% · Net margin 5.8% · Return on equity 31.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 16%, SWP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€23.81Fair Value €39.01Bull€50.72
Price €33.65 · Upside +15.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2230 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.0% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.7% vs 6.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 628 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Above median
Fair Value upside+15.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)31.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)5.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)9.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.20× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)14.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B4.27× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.86× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)17.1× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sword Group S.E Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SWP
Frequently asked questions
Is Sword Group S.E (SWP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €39.01 versus a price of €33.65, about +16% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SWP?
Our model-based fair value for Sword Group S.E is €39.01 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €33.65.
What is the quality score of SWP?
Sword Group S.E has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €39.01 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €23.81, optimistic scenario €50.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sword Group S.E stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €39.01, about +16% upside versus a price of €33.65 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €23.81, optimistic scenario €50.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
Sword Group S.E reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €370M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Sword Group S.E pay a dividend?
Sword Group S.E currently shows a dividend yield of 5.94% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Sword Group S.E (SWP) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Sword Group S.E pays a dividend of €2.00 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 29, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2003. The payout ratio is 88.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.98 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sword Group S.E would have to grow free cash flow by +12.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.0 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SWP use?
Our models discount Sword Group S.E at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.88, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sword Group S.E that is +12.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sword Group S.E (SWP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sword Group S.E grew +11.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +12.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sword Group S.E (SWP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sword Group S.E (+12.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.85 %: that much free cash flow Sword Group S.E produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sword Group S.E it is €39.01 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of €33.65. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Sword Group S.E stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, SWP trades below its calculated fair value: price €33.65, fair value €39.01, a gap of about +16% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SWP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€33.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€39.01). For Sword Group S.E the two are €5.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sword Group S.E worth?
The market values Sword Group S.E at about €318M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is €33.65; our models calculate a fair value of €39.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SWP?
Our models span a range for Sword Group S.E: cautious scenario €23.81, base €39.01, optimistic €50.72 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price €33.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SWP?
Sword Group S.E trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €39.01 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 17.2. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 4.3, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 10.4.
What is the PEG ratio of SWP?
The PEG ratio of Sword Group S.E is 0.19 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sword Group S.E (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 31.5%, debt of 1.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SWP from its 52-week high?
Sword Group S.E trades at €33.65, about 9% below its 52-week high of €36.82 and 19% above the low of €28.32 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €39.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sword Group S.E?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sword Group S.E stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price €33.65, calculated fair value €39.01 (+16%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SWP calculated?
We run Sword Group S.E through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €39.01 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Sword Group S.E currently trades 14% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €33.65. Our model-based fair value is €39.01, about +16% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sword Group S.E right now?
A fairly wide model range (€23.81 to €50.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Sword Group S.E (SWP) come from?
Earnings per share at Sword Group S.E grew +7.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.8 %, EBIT margin −1.7 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sword Group S.E
How large is the market capitalisation of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
The market capitalisation of Sword Group S.E is €318M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sword Group S.E is 0.86 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
Earnings per share at Sword Group S.E are €2.26 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
The dividend yield of Sword Group S.E is 5.9% (payout 88.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
The net margin of Sword Group S.E is 5.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sword Group S.E is 31.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sword Group S.E is 16.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
The operating margin of Sword Group S.E is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
Revenue at Sword Group S.E is growing +6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
Earnings per share at Sword Group S.E are growing +26.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sword Group S.E (SWP) carry?
The net debt of Sword Group S.E is €43.5M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026