Sword Group S.E (SWP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Sword Group S.E €39.05, price €29.50, upside +32.4%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €24.04 – €39.61 · fair‑value band €23.75 – €50.76 · the €29.50 price screens below the €39.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Sword Group S.E. provides IT and software solutions in Luxembourg, Europe, and Asia.
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Sword Group S.E. provides IT and software solutions in Luxembourg, Europe, and Asia. The company offers digital services, comprising software and agile product development, DevOps, application modernization, and quality assurance; data and AI services, consisting of predictive analytics, data integration and visualization, dashboards and reports, modern data platform, and data hubs; digital workplace services, including digital ways of working, change management and adoption, benefits realization, device management, and Microsoft 365 implementation and migration, as well as collaboration, communication, and productivity; and platform and security services, such as hybrid cloud, cloud platform implementation and migration, data center and hosting, cloud and cyber security, hardware, network, and virtual apps and desktops. It also provides digital transformation services, comprising service management, digital strategy, data-driven decision-making, front-line workers, process digitalization, operating in the cloud, project and programme delivery; managed services, such as service desk and application outsourcing, platform and application support, application hosting management; Microsoft managed services, Azure migration, and ISV onboarding to Azure; and information management services, including information governance, records management, data loss prevention, and content and migration services, as well as engineering, and subsurface data, and information management. In addition, the company offers Sword Phusion, an engineering information management software; Sword Tell, a CAD software for watch manufacturers; Sword Venue, a toolbox that helps to plan and deliver venues; Sword Aequos for data viewing and filtering experiences; and Sword Webtransfer to deliver large files. Sword Group S.E. was founded in 2000 and is based in Windhof, Luxembourg.
Stock analysis
Sword Group S.E (SWP) currently trades at €29.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €39.05, implying the stock looks roughly 24.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €42.62 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the €29.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €5.29, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €23.75 (bear) to €50.76 (bull), the price of €29.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Sword Group S.E reported revenue of €358M in FY2025 versus €215M in FY2021, a compound +13.6%/yr. Reported net income was €19.0M in FY2025, compounding +1.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €279M · P/E ratio 14.6 · P/S ratio 0.78 · EPS (TTM) €2.02 · Dividend yield 6.8% · Net margin 5.3% · Return on equity 22.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at 32%, SWP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €23.75Fair Value €39.05Bull €50.76
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0147 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.0% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2% vs 6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 721 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside+32% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.20× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B4.26× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sword Group S.E Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SWP
Frequently asked questions
Is Sword Group S.E (SWP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €39.05 versus a price of €29.50, about +32% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SWP?
Our model-based fair value for Sword Group S.E is €39.05 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €29.50.
What is the quality score of SWP?
Sword Group S.E has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €39.05 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €23.75, optimistic scenario €50.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sword Group S.E stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €39.05, about +32% upside versus a price of €29.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €23.75, optimistic scenario €50.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
Sword Group S.E reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €358M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Sword Group S.E pay a dividend?
Sword Group S.E currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.78% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sword Group S.E would have to grow free cash flow by +10.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SWP use?
Our models discount Sword Group S.E at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.89, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sword Group S.E that is +10.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sword Group S.E (SWP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sword Group S.E grew +11.0 % a year. The price currently implies +10.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sword Group S.E (SWP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sword Group S.E (+10.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.68 %: that much free cash flow Sword Group S.E produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sword Group S.E it is €39.05 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €29.50. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sword Group S.E stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SWP trades below its calculated fair value: price €29.50, fair value €39.05, a gap of about +32% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SWP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€29.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€39.05). For Sword Group S.E the two are €9.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sword Group S.E worth?
The market values Sword Group S.E at about €279M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €29.50; our models calculate a fair value of €39.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SWP?
Our models span a range for Sword Group S.E: cautious scenario €23.75, base €39.05, optimistic €50.76 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €29.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SWP?
Sword Group S.E trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €39.05 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 4.3, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 10.1.
What is the PEG ratio of SWP?
The PEG ratio of Sword Group S.E is 0.19 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sword Group S.E (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 22.2%, debt of 1.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SWP from its 52-week high?
Sword Group S.E trades at €29.50, about 20% below its 52-week high of €36.82 and 4% above the low of €28.32 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €39.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sword Group S.E?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sword Group S.E stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €29.50, calculated fair value €39.05 (+32%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SWP calculated?
We run Sword Group S.E through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €39.05, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Sword Group S.E currently trades 32 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €29.50. Our model-based fair value is €39.05, about +32% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sword Group S.E right now?
Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€23.75 to €50.76) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Sword Group S.E (SWP) come from?
Earnings per share at Sword Group S.E grew +7.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.8 %, EBIT margin −1.7 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sword Group S.E
How large is the market capitalisation of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
The market capitalisation of Sword Group S.E is €279M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sword Group S.E is 0.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
Earnings per share at Sword Group S.E are €2.02 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
The dividend yield of Sword Group S.E is 6.8% (payout 99.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
The net margin of Sword Group S.E is 5.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sword Group S.E is 22.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sword Group S.E is 16.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
The operating margin of Sword Group S.E is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
Revenue at Sword Group S.E is growing +9.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sword Group S.E (SWP)?
Earnings per share at Sword Group S.E are growing −12.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sword Group S.E (SWP) carry?
The net debt of Sword Group S.E is €43.5M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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