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Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Swire Properties Limited $2.09, price $2.96, upside -29.4%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Swire Properties Limited
SWPFF · USOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value $2.09 · Overvalued (−29.4%)
✓Quality 63/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +3.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 38/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0002 – $3.29 · fair‑value band $1.36 – $3.21 · the $2.96 price screens above the $2.09 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Swire Properties Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, and operates mixed-use, primarily commercial properties in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and the United States. The company operates through Property Investment, Property Trading, and Hotels segments.
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Swire Properties Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, and operates mixed-use, primarily commercial properties in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and the United States. The company operates through Property Investment, Property Trading, and Hotels segments. It engages in the development, leasing, and management of commercial, retail, and residential properties; development and sale of residential apartments; and investment in and operation of hotels. The company also provides financial and real estate agency services. Swire Properties Limited was incorporated in 1972 and is based in Hong Kong, Hong Kong. The company operates as a subsidiary of Swire Pacific Limited.
Stock analysis
Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF) currently trades at $2.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.09, 29.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $4.00 per share, and 2 of the 13 models we run sit above the $2.96 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.72, and 11 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $1.36 (bear) to $3.21 (bull), the price of $2.96 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Swire Properties Limited reported revenue of HK$16.0B in FY2025 versus HK$16.3B in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$1.5B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $15.7B · P/S ratio 0.95 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0300 · Net margin −9.6% · Return on equity −0.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% · Operating margin 57.7% · Revenue (TTM) HK$16.6B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −29%, SWPFF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.36
Fair Value $2.09
Bull $3.21
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$1.24
$1.94
$3.16
79
Growth DCF
$1.31
$1.99
$3.09
77
5Y EBITDA Exit
$1.38
$2.38
$3.63
74
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$1.24
$1.94
$3.16
79
5Y Revenue Exit
$1.00
$1.72
$2.72
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$1.38
$2.38
$3.63
74
10Y Revenue Exit
$1.03
$1.68
$2.43
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$1.31
$2.11
$3.04
68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$1.30
$1.72
$2.15
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$1.30
$1.78
$2.36
67
Multiples
EV/EBIT
$2.30
$3.28
$4.27
65
EV/EBITDA
$1.79
$2.61
$3.42
67
EV/Revenue
$0.9700
$1.67
$2.37
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$2.98
$4.00
$5.96
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$1.31
$1.99
$3.09
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$1.00
$1.75
$2.61
71
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
63/100
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Profitability
8
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
61
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
46
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
63
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
80
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
43/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.3% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
101.2% (2019) → 11.8% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in HKD, Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.6% a year for the price and +2.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+12.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.2%
Compare Swire Properties Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 520 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Real Estate sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Real Estate
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vingroup Joint Stock Company VIC | 232,000 VND | 25,731 VND | −89% |
| CBRE Group CBRE | $134.55 | $91.06 | −32% |
| KE Holdings 2423 | HK$42.92 | HK$17.16 | −60% |
| Cellnex Telecom, S.A CLNX | €23.99 | €23.94 | +0% |
| Vonovia SE VNA | €16.82 | €36.55 | +117% |
| Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL | $308.07 | $540.65 | +75% |
| Wharf Real Estate Investment Company 1997 | HK$30.54 | HK$27.42 | −10% |
| CoStar Group CSGP | $26.95 | $6.19 | −77% |
| China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited 1209 | HK$37.00 | HK$56.36 | +52% |
| CapitaLand Investment Limited 9CI | 2.60 SGD | 0.5600 SGD | −78% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.09 versus a price of $2.96, about −29% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SWPFF?
Our model-based fair value for Swire Properties Limited is $2.09 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.96.
What is the quality score of SWPFF?
Swire Properties Limited has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.09 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.36, optimistic scenario $3.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Swire Properties Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.09, about −29% upside versus a price of $2.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.36, optimistic scenario $3.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF)?
Swire Properties Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$16.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Swire Properties Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -9.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.8 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SWPFF use?
Our models discount Swire Properties Limited at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.80, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Swire Properties Limited that is -9.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Swire Properties Limited grew +3.8 % a year. The price currently implies -9.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Swire Properties Limited (-9.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 42.34 %: that much free cash flow Swire Properties Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Swire Properties Limited it is $2.09 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $2.96. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Swire Properties Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, SWPFF trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.96, fair value $2.09, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SWPFF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.09). For Swire Properties Limited the two are $0.8700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Swire Properties Limited worth?
The market values Swire Properties Limited at about $15.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $2.96; our models calculate a fair value of $2.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SWPFF?
Our models span a range for Swire Properties Limited: cautious scenario $1.36, base $2.09, optimistic $3.21 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $2.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of SWPFF?
The PEG ratio of Swire Properties Limited is 0.44 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Swire Properties Limited (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −0.6%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SWPFF from its 52-week high?
Swire Properties Limited trades at $2.96, about 10% below its 52-week high of $3.29 and 17% above the low of $2.53 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Swire Properties Limited?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Swire Properties Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $2.96, calculated fair value $2.09 (−29%), Quality Score 63/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SWPFF calculated?
We run Swire Properties Limited through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Swire Properties Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.96. Our model-based fair value is $2.09, about −29% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Swire Properties Limited right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($1.36 to $3.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Swire Properties Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF)?
The market capitalisation of Swire Properties Limited is $15.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Swire Properties Limited is 0.95 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF)?
Earnings per share at Swire Properties Limited are $−0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF)?
The net margin of Swire Properties Limited is −9.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Swire Properties Limited is −0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Swire Properties Limited is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF)?
The operating margin of Swire Properties Limited is 57.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF)?
Revenue at Swire Properties Limited is growing +4.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF)?
Earnings per share at Swire Properties Limited are growing −88.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Swire Properties Limited (SWPFF) carry?
The net debt of Swire Properties Limited is HK$39.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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