Swvl Holdings (SWVL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $14.9M
Swvl Holdings
SWVL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −2.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 39% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.43). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7000 – $252.25 · fair‑value band $1.43 – $2.38 · the $1.37 price screens below the $1.90 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Swvl Holdings (SWVL) currently trades at $1.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.90, implying the stock looks roughly 39.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Swvl Holdings generated revenue of $24.2M at a net margin of 5.4%. Revenue grew 26.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 116.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $2.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.43 (bear case) to $2.38 (bull case); at $1.37, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 72% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at 39%, SWVL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($3.41) versus Asset-Based ($0.4000). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 11
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Swvl Holdings Corp., a technology-driven disruptive mobility company, provides mass transit solutions in Egypt, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and Kuwait.
Full company description
Swvl Holdings Corp., a technology-driven disruptive mobility company, provides mass transit solutions in Egypt, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and Kuwait. The company offers B2C product that provides riders with a network of minibuses and other vehicles operating on fixed and semi-fixed routes throughout and between the cities it serves. It also provides Swvl business which enables corporate customers, as well as schools and municipalities to use technology and platform to optimize the commute and travel programs it operates for its employees. The company was formerly known as Pivotal Holdings Corp. and changed its name to Swvl Holdings Corp. in April 2022. Swvl Holdings Corp. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Swvl Holdings reported revenue of $24.2M in FY2025 versus $25.6M in FY2021, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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