Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Swvl Holdings Corp $1.39, price $3.83, upside -63.8%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7000 – $252.25 · fair‑value band $0.8585 – $2.41 · the $3.83 price screens above the $1.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Swvl Holdings Corp., a technology-driven disruptive mobility company, provides mass transit solutions in Egypt, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and Kuwait.
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Swvl Holdings Corp., a technology-driven disruptive mobility company, provides mass transit solutions in Egypt, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and Kuwait. The company offers B2C product that provides riders with a network of minibuses and other vehicles operating on fixed and semi-fixed routes throughout and between the cities it serves. It also provides Swvl business which enables corporate customers, as well as schools and municipalities to use technology and platform to optimize the commute and travel programs it operates for its employees. The company was formerly known as Pivotal Holdings Corp. and changed its name to Swvl Holdings Corp. in April 2022. Swvl Holdings Corp. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates.
Stock analysis
Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL) currently trades at $3.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.39, implying the stock looks roughly 176.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $3.99 per share, and 2 of the 10 models we run sit above the $3.83 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.4000, and 8 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.8585 (bear) to $2.41 (bull), the price of $3.83 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Swvl Holdings Corp reported revenue of $24.2M in FY2025 versus $25.6M in FY2021, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $14.9M · P/E ratio 12.5 · P/S ratio 0.68 · EPS (TTM) $0.1200 · Net margin 5.4% · Return on equity 116% · Return on assets (EBIT) −47.3% · Operating margin −2.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 190% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −64%, SWVL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.8585Fair Value $1.39Bull $2.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0878 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+40.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−54.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−54.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−142% → −14%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (37 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 115 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−64% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)116% · Top 25%
Return on assets−2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)12.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.53× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.62× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 88
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.39 versus a price of $3.83, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SWVL?
Our model-based fair value for Swvl Holdings Corp is $1.39 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.83.
What is the quality score of SWVL?
Swvl Holdings Corp has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.39 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.8585, optimistic scenario $2.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Swvl Holdings Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.39, about −64% upside versus a price of $3.83 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.8585, optimistic scenario $2.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
Swvl Holdings Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $24.2M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Swvl Holdings Corp it is $1.39 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $3.83. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Swvl Holdings Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SWVL trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.83, fair value $1.39, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SWVL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.39). For Swvl Holdings Corp the two are $2.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Swvl Holdings Corp worth?
The market values Swvl Holdings Corp at about $14.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $3.83; our models calculate a fair value of $1.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SWVL?
Our models span a range for Swvl Holdings Corp: cautious scenario $0.8585, base $1.39, optimistic $2.41 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $3.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SWVL?
Swvl Holdings Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.39 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.5, P/S 0.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Swvl Holdings Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 116.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SWVL from its 52-week high?
Swvl Holdings Corp trades at $3.83, about 52% below its 52-week high of $7.94 and 190% above the low of $1.32 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Swvl Holdings Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Swvl Holdings Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $3.83, calculated fair value $1.39 (−64%), Quality Score 47/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SWVL calculated?
We run Swvl Holdings Corp through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Swvl Holdings Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $3.83. Our model-based fair value is $1.39, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Swvl Holdings Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($0.8585 to $2.41). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Swvl Holdings Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
The market capitalisation of Swvl Holdings Corp is $14.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Swvl Holdings Corp is 0.68 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
Earnings per share at Swvl Holdings Corp are $0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
The net margin of Swvl Holdings Corp is 5.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Swvl Holdings Corp is 116% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Swvl Holdings Corp is −47.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
The operating margin of Swvl Holdings Corp is −2.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
Revenue at Swvl Holdings Corp is growing +26.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −17.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL) generate?
The free cash flow of Swvl Holdings Corp is −$2.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL) hold?
Swvl Holdings Corp holds more cash than debt, $2.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026