Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Swvl Holdings Corp stock $0.67, price $3.90, that is 82.8% below the price, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7000 – $252.25 · fair‑value band $0.4700 – $0.9900 · the $3.90 price screens above the $0.6700 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Swvl Holdings Corp., a technology-driven disruptive mobility company, provides mass transit solutions in Egypt, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and Kuwait.
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The company offers B2C product that provides riders with a network of minibuses and other vehicles operating on fixed and semi-fixed routes throughout and between the cities it serves.
It also provides Swvl business which enables corporate customers, as well as schools and municipalities to use technology and platform to optimize the commute and travel programs it operates for its employees.
The company was formerly known as Pivotal Holdings Corp. and changed its name to Swvl Holdings Corp. in April 2022. Swvl Holdings Corp. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates.
Stock analysis
Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL) currently trades at $3.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6700, 83% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $2.22 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the $3.90 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.2000, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.4700 (bear) to $0.9900 (bull), the price of $3.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Swvl Holdings Corp reported revenue of $24.2M in FY2025 versus $25.6M in FY2021, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $67.4M Micro · P/E ratio 129.8 · P/S ratio 1.38 · EPS (TTM) $0.0300 · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity 24.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −47.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin −3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 195% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −83%, SWVL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$0.4700Fair Value $0.6700Bull$0.9900
Price $3.90 · Downside -82.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0257 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+40.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
’19
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−55.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−55.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−142% → −14%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (37 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−82.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)24.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)1.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−3.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)59.2% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)129.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B11.40× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.23× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)96· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 42
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.6700 versus a price of $3.90, about 83% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SWVL?
Our model-based fair value for Swvl Holdings Corp is $0.6700 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.90.
What is the quality score of SWVL?
Swvl Holdings Corp has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.6700 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4700, optimistic scenario $0.9900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Swvl Holdings Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.6700, about 83% lower versus a price of $3.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.4700, optimistic scenario $0.9900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
Swvl Holdings Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $30.2M (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Swvl Holdings Corp it is $0.6700 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $3.90. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Swvl Holdings Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, SWVL trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.90, fair value $0.6700, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SWVL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.6700). For Swvl Holdings Corp the two are $3.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Swvl Holdings Corp worth?
The market values Swvl Holdings Corp at about $67.4M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $3.90; our models calculate a fair value of $0.6700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SWVL?
Our models span a range for Swvl Holdings Corp: cautious scenario $0.4700, base $0.6700, optimistic $0.9900 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $3.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SWVL?
Swvl Holdings Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 129.8 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.6700 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 11.4, P/S 2.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Swvl Holdings Corp (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 24.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SWVL from its 52-week high?
Swvl Holdings Corp trades at $3.90, about 51% below its 52-week high of $7.94 and 195% above the low of $1.32 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.6700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Swvl Holdings Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Swvl Holdings Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $3.90, calculated fair value $0.6700 (−83%), Quality Score 64/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SWVL calculated?
We run Swvl Holdings Corp through 10 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $0.6700 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Swvl Holdings Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $3.90. Our model-based fair value is $0.6700, about 83% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Swvl Holdings Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.9900). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($0.4700 to $0.9900) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Swvl Holdings Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
The market capitalisation of Swvl Holdings Corp is $67.4M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Swvl Holdings Corp is 1.38 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
Earnings per share at Swvl Holdings Corp are $0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 129.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
The net margin of Swvl Holdings Corp is 1.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Swvl Holdings Corp is 24.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Swvl Holdings Corp is −47.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
The operating margin of Swvl Holdings Corp is −3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL)?
Revenue at Swvl Holdings Corp is growing +59.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −17.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL) generate?
The free cash flow of Swvl Holdings Corp is −$2.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Swvl Holdings Corp (SWVL) hold?
Swvl Holdings Corp holds more cash than debt, $2.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 9, 2026