Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Tabcorp Holdings Limited $0.42, price $0.63, upside -33.3%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2588 – $3.59 · fair‑value band $0.2400 – $0.6100 · the $0.6300 price screens above the $0.4200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Tabcorp Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides gambling, and entertainment and integrity services in Australia. It operates through Wagering and Media, and Integrity Services segments.
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Tabcorp Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides gambling, and entertainment and integrity services in Australia. It operates through Wagering and Media, and Integrity Services segments. The Wagering and Media segment offers totalisator and fixed odds betting on racing, sports, and other events through a network of TAB agencies, hotels and clubs, and on-course operations, as well as through retail, Internet, mobile devices, and phone. It also provides Trackside, a computer simulate racing product; and international wagering and pooling services. In addition, the company engages in the Sky Racing television channels broadcasting thoroughbred, and harness and greyhound racing to audiences; Sky Racing Active, a digital app providing Sky Racing's live and on-demand racing content across thoroughbred, and harness and greyhound racing; Sky Sports television channels; and Sky Sports Radio network. The Integrity Services segment provides electronic gaming machine (EGM) monitoring and related services; and provides products, technology, support, maintenance, and other gaming services. It offers its services under the TAB, Sky Racing, and MAX brands. The company was founded in 1961 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF) currently trades at $0.6300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4200, 33.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $0.6800 per share, and 9 of the 24 models we run sit above the $0.6300 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.0800, and 15 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.2400 (bear) to $0.6100 (bull), the price of $0.6300 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Tabcorp Holdings Limited reported revenue of A$2.6B in FY2025 versus A$5.7B in FY2021, a compound −17.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$36.6M in FY2025, compounding −39.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.0B · P/E ratio 80.0 · P/S ratio 1.12 · EPS (TTM) $0.0100 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 2.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 33% fair-value upside, at −33%, TABCF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.2400Fair Value $0.4200Bull $0.6100
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.9% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−32.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−36.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−36.2% vs −22.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 8.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.4% a year for the price and −0.8% for the forecasts.
Compare Tabcorp Holdings Limited with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 50 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Above median
Fair Value upside−5.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.6% · Below median
Return on assets3.2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.59× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)80.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.25× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.4200 versus a price of $0.6300, about −33% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TABCF?
Our model-based fair value for Tabcorp Holdings Limited is $0.4200 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.6300.
What is the quality score of TABCF?
Tabcorp Holdings Limited has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.4200 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2400, optimistic scenario $0.6100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tabcorp Holdings Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.4200, about −33% upside versus a price of $0.6300 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2400, optimistic scenario $0.6100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF)?
Tabcorp Holdings Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$2.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Tabcorp Holdings Limited pay a dividend?
Tabcorp Holdings Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.97% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tabcorp Holdings Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -3.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -12.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TABCF use?
Our models discount Tabcorp Holdings Limited at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tabcorp Holdings Limited that is -3.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tabcorp Holdings Limited grew -12.9 % a year. The price currently implies -3.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tabcorp Holdings Limited (-3.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.86 %: that much free cash flow Tabcorp Holdings Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tabcorp Holdings Limited it is $0.4200 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.6300. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tabcorp Holdings Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TABCF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.6300, fair value $0.4200, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TABCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.6300); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4200). For Tabcorp Holdings Limited the two are $0.2100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tabcorp Holdings Limited worth?
The market values Tabcorp Holdings Limited at about $2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.6300; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TABCF?
Our models span a range for Tabcorp Holdings Limited: cautious scenario $0.2400, base $0.4200, optimistic $0.6100 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.6300). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TABCF?
Tabcorp Holdings Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 80.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.4200 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 11.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tabcorp Holdings Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.6%, debt of 0.59 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TABCF from its 52-week high?
Tabcorp Holdings Limited trades at $0.6300, about 21% below its 52-week high of $0.8000 and 7% above the low of $0.5909 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.4200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tabcorp Holdings Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Evolution AB, Flutter Entertainment plc, The Lottery Corporation, Lottomatica Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tabcorp Holdings Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.6300, calculated fair value $0.4200 (−33%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TABCF calculated?
We run Tabcorp Holdings Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.4200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tabcorp Holdings Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.6300. Our model-based fair value is $0.4200, about −33% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tabcorp Holdings Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.6100). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($0.2400 to $0.6100) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF) come from?
Earnings per share at Tabcorp Holdings Limited grew −23.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −9.2 %, EBIT margin −19.3 %, tax rate −3.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +7.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tabcorp Holdings Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF)?
The market capitalisation of Tabcorp Holdings Limited is $2.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tabcorp Holdings Limited is 1.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF)?
Earnings per share at Tabcorp Holdings Limited are $0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 80.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF)?
The dividend yield of Tabcorp Holdings Limited is 4.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF)?
The net margin of Tabcorp Holdings Limited is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tabcorp Holdings Limited is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tabcorp Holdings Limited is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF)?
The operating margin of Tabcorp Holdings Limited is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF)?
Revenue at Tabcorp Holdings Limited is growing +1.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF)?
Earnings per share at Tabcorp Holdings Limited are growing −18.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF) carry?
The net debt of Tabcorp Holdings Limited is A$626M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026