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Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Transcontinental Inc C$18.75, price C$5.27, upside +255.8%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Cyclical · CA · ISIN CA8935781044

TI Thin data Oct 2, 2026

Transcontinental Inc

TCL-A · TO

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value C$18.75 · Strongly undervalued (+255.8%)

✓Quality 68/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.3 %/yr)

✓Solidly profitable · 12.1% net margin (TTM)

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

✓12.8% dividend yield · Well covered

✓Ranks above peers (12/15)

!Moderate moat 55/100

!Insider activity 40/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on future: 19 out of 100

26 models, one by oneBear C$14.41 to bull C$25.27 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 68/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$4.71 – C$24.02 · fair‑value band C$14.41 – C$25.27 · the C$5.27 price screens below the C$18.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

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Company profile

Transcontinental Inc. engages in the flexible packaging business in Canada, the United States, Latin America, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through Packaging, Retail Services and Printing, and Media segments. The Packaging sector engages in the extrusion, lamination, printing, and converting packaging solutions; and manufacturing and recycling flexible plastic, including rollstock, labels, die cut lids, shrink films, bags and pouches, and advanced coatings. This sector serves dairy, coffee, meat and poultry, pet food, agriculture, beverage, home and personal care products, industrial, consumer, and medical products. The Retail Services and Printing sector provides content, marketing and media solutions, including flyer retail printing, digital flyer, retail analytics, and in-store marketing solutions. It also offers print solutions for newspapers, magazines, and 4-color books. The Media sector is involved in printing and digital publishing of educational supplemental educational, and specialized publications for professionals in French and English. The company was formerly known as GTC Transcontinental Group Ltd CL A. Transcontinental Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.

Stock analysis

Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A) currently trades at C$5.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$18.75, implying the stock looks roughly 71.9% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of C$34.77 per share, and 22 of the 22 models we run sit above the C$5.27 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$15.33, and 0 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: C$14.41 (bear) to C$25.27 (bull), the price of C$5.27 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.

Transcontinental Inc reported revenue of C$2.7B in FY2025 versus C$2.6B in FY2021, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was C$171M in FY2025, compounding +7.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap C$441M (≈ $309M) · P/E ratio 2.9 · P/S ratio 0.18 · EPS (TTM) C$1.85 · Dividend yield 12.8% · Net margin 6.2% · Return on equity 15.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 78% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at 256%, TCL-A screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear C$14.41 Fair Value C$18.75 Bull C$25.27

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 11 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$1.08 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF C$23.52 C$31.04 C$44.49 80

Growth DCF C$24.25 C$31.43 C$43.23 78

Owner Earnings C$30.07 C$39.34 C$55.95 76

All 22 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF C$23.52 C$31.04 C$44.49 80

Owner Earnings C$30.07 C$39.34 C$55.95 76

5Y Revenue Exit C$22.74 C$34.01 C$50.66 71

5Y EBITDA Exit C$28.47 C$43.75 C$64.27 74

5Y P/E Exit C$20.41 C$30.06 C$41.81 70

10Y Revenue Exit C$22.20 C$31.48 C$41.95 66

10Y EBITDA Exit C$26.08 C$37.35 C$50.06 68

10Y P/E Exit C$21.55 C$29.10 C$36.67 64

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd C$13.91 C$23.40 C$28.49 64

EPV C$16.02 C$18.81 C$21.13 72

Multiples

P/E Multiple C$26.08 C$34.77 C$43.47 61

P/S Multiple C$26.08 C$34.77 C$43.47 56

P/B Multiple C$26.08 C$34.77 C$43.47 53

EV/EBIT C$28.74 C$39.79 C$50.85 64

EV/EBITDA C$38.01 C$52.16 C$66.31 66

EV/Revenue C$24.31 C$36.64 C$48.96 52

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) C$11.44 C$15.33 C$22.88 52

Growth DCF

Growth DCF C$24.25 C$31.43 C$43.23 78

Rev-Margin DCF C$22.74 C$34.59 C$49.67 71

Economic Profit

Residual Income C$18.68 C$19.99 C$22.11 75

ROIC Compounder C$16.02 C$18.81 C$21.13 71

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E C$18.58 C$26.54 C$34.50 66

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 68/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 19

Profitability 50

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 57

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 64

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 50

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 98

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 21

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 27

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 2

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 89

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100

Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.

Revenue growth 1 year

−2.5%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−2.5%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+1.3%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.2% a year

Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+4.7%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.

+15.4%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+2.6%

Dividend (yield on the price)12.8%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.2% vs 0.8%, picking up

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 10%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 257 stocks

Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures

Overall it ranks above its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 68 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside +254.4% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 15.6% · Top 25%

Return on assets 6.8% · Top 25%

Net margin (TTM) 12.1% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 13.1% · Top 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 3.8% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 12.8% · Top 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.22× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 2.9× · Cheapest 25%

P/B 0.23× · Cheapest 25%

P/S (TTM) 0.16× · Cheapest 25%

P/FCF 1.8× · Cheapest 25%

EV/EBITDA 2.0× · Cheapest 25%

PEG 2.66× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 23

FUTURE (revenue growth)19 · sector 25

PAST (return on equity)62 · sector 25

HEALTH (low debt)89 · sector 92

DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 47

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Smurfit Westrock Plc, SW	$46.41	$29.85	−36%
Packaging Corporation PKG	$234.52	$130.10	−45%
Amcor plc AMC	A$59.87	A$25.84	−57%
International Paper Company IP	$32.52	$21.53	−34%
Ball Corporation BALL	$56.83	$47.81	−16%
Avery Dennison Corporation AVY	$170.78	$125.35	−27%
Crown Holdings CCK	$108.06	$121.85	+13%
Stora Enso Oyj STEAV	€10.45	€9.66	−8%
SIG Group SIGN	CHF 13.37	CHF 9.59	−28%
ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831	¥29.00	¥31.90	+10%

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Transcontinental Inc · Fair Value
C$18.75 +72%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Transcontinental Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TCL-A

Frequently asked questions

Is Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$18.75 versus a price of C$5.27, about +256% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of TCL-A?

Our model-based fair value for Transcontinental Inc is C$18.75 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$5.27.

What is the quality score of TCL-A?

Transcontinental Inc has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$18.75 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$14.41, optimistic scenario C$25.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Transcontinental Inc stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at C$18.75, about +256% upside versus a price of C$5.27 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$14.41, optimistic scenario C$25.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A)?

Transcontinental Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$2.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).

Does Transcontinental Inc pay a dividend?

Transcontinental Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 12.81% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Transcontinental Inc it is C$18.75 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of C$5.27. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Transcontinental Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Oct 2, 2026, TCL-A trades below its calculated fair value: price C$5.27, fair value C$18.75, a gap of about +256% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of TCL-A?

No. The price is what the market pays today (C$5.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$18.75). For Transcontinental Inc the two are C$13.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Transcontinental Inc worth?

The market values Transcontinental Inc at about C$441M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is C$5.27; our models calculate a fair value of C$18.75 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TCL-A?

Our models span a range for Transcontinental Inc: cautious scenario C$14.41, base C$18.75, optimistic C$25.27 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price C$5.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of TCL-A?

Transcontinental Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.9 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$18.75 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.7, P/B 0.2, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 2.0.

What is the PEG ratio of TCL-A?

The PEG ratio of Transcontinental Inc is 2.66 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A)?

Balance-sheet figures for Transcontinental Inc (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 15.6%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is TCL-A from its 52-week high?

Transcontinental Inc trades at C$5.27, about 78% below its 52-week high of C$24.02 and 12% above the low of C$4.71 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$18.75 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Transcontinental Inc?

From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, Amcor plc, International Paper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Transcontinental Inc stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price C$5.27, calculated fair value C$18.75 (+256%), Quality Score 68/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of TCL-A calculated?

We run Transcontinental Inc through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$18.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Transcontinental Inc currently trades 72 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A)?

The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was C$5.27. Our model-based fair value is C$18.75, about +256% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Transcontinental Inc right now?

The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$14.41). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Where does the earnings growth of Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A) come from?

Earnings per share at Transcontinental Inc grew −4.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.7 %, EBIT margin −3.7 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Transcontinental Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A)?

The market capitalisation of Transcontinental Inc is C$441M (≈ $309M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Transcontinental Inc is 0.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A)?

Earnings per share at Transcontinental Inc are C$1.85 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A)?

The dividend yield of Transcontinental Inc is 12.8% (payout 36.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A)?

The net margin of Transcontinental Inc is 6.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Transcontinental Inc is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Transcontinental Inc is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A)?

The operating margin of Transcontinental Inc is 13.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A)?

Revenue at Transcontinental Inc is growing +3.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A)?

Earnings per share at Transcontinental Inc are growing −5.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A) generate?

The free cash flow of Transcontinental Inc is C$246M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Transcontinental Inc (TCL-A) carry?

The net debt of Transcontinental Inc is C$740M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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