TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of TCPL Packaging Limited ₹1,988, price ₹3,927, upside -49.4%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹443.52 – ₹4,631 · fair‑value band ₹1,296 – ₹2,894 · the ₹3,927 price screens above the ₹1,988 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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TCPL Packaging Limited manufactures and sells paperboard-based packaging materials and flexible packaging products in India.
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TCPL Packaging Limited manufactures and sells paperboard-based packaging materials and flexible packaging products in India. It offers folding cartons, printed blanks and outers, litho-laminated cartons, blister packs, plastic cartons, and shelf-ready packaging products; food and pharma packaging products; flexible packaging products, such as laminates, shrink sleeves, wrap-around labels, pouches, and printed cork-tipping papers; and rigid box and specialty gift packaging products. The company also exports its products. It serves tobacco, FMCG, food and beverage, liquor, and pharmaceutical industries. The company was formerly known as Twenty First Century Printers Ltd and changed its name to TCPL Packaging Limited in September 2008. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.
Stock analysis
TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK) currently trades at ₹3,927, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹1,988, 49.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹2,487 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹3,927 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ₹384.47, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹1,296 (bear) to ₹2,894 (bull), the price of ₹3,927 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
TCPL Packaging Limited reported revenue of ₹18.1B in FY2026 versus ₹10.7B in FY2022, a compound +14.0%/yr. Reported net income was ₹978M in FY2026, compounding +19.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹35.7B (≈ $371M) · P/E ratio 31.0 · P/S ratio 1.67 · EPS (TTM) ₹126.82 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 5.4% · Return on equity 14.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 77% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −49%, TCPLPACK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹1,296Fair Value ₹1,988Bull ₹2,894
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹51.61 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.8% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+22.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.8% vs 10.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 12%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+40.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +35.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 256 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−49.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6.2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)12.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)31.0× · Pricier than median
P/B4.97× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.90× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF57.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.5× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)81· sector 11
PAST (return on equity)57· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)83· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)13· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹1,988 versus a price of ₹3,927, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TCPLPACK?
Our model-based fair value for TCPL Packaging Limited is ₹1,988 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹3,927.
What is the quality score of TCPLPACK?
TCPL Packaging Limited has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹1,988 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹1,296, optimistic scenario ₹2,894. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TCPL Packaging Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹1,988, about −49% upside versus a price of ₹3,927 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹1,296, optimistic scenario ₹2,894. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK)?
TCPL Packaging Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹18.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does TCPL Packaging Limited pay a dividend?
TCPL Packaging Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.64% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TCPL Packaging Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +40.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.2 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TCPLPACK use?
Our models discount TCPL Packaging Limited at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.59, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TCPL Packaging Limited that is +40.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at TCPL Packaging Limited grew +15.2 % a year. The price currently implies +40.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TCPL Packaging Limited (+40.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.74 %: that much free cash flow TCPL Packaging Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TCPL Packaging Limited it is ₹1,988 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of ₹3,927. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TCPL Packaging Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, TCPLPACK trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹3,927, fair value ₹1,988, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TCPLPACK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹3,927); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹1,988). For TCPL Packaging Limited the two are ₹1,939 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TCPL Packaging Limited worth?
The market values TCPL Packaging Limited at about ₹35.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is ₹3,927; our models calculate a fair value of ₹1,988 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TCPLPACK?
Our models span a range for TCPL Packaging Limited: cautious scenario ₹1,296, base ₹1,988, optimistic ₹2,894 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price ₹3,927). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TCPLPACK?
TCPL Packaging Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.0 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹1,988 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.0, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 12.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK)?
Balance-sheet figures for TCPL Packaging Limited (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 14.4%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TCPLPACK from its 52-week high?
TCPL Packaging Limited trades at ₹3,927, about 11% below its 52-week high of ₹4,395 and 77% above the low of ₹2,214 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹1,988 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TCPL Packaging Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, Amcor plc, International Paper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TCPL Packaging Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price ₹3,927, calculated fair value ₹1,988 (−49%), Quality Score 49/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TCPLPACK calculated?
We run TCPL Packaging Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹1,988, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. TCPL Packaging Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹3,927. Our model-based fair value is ₹1,988, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TCPL Packaging Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹2,894). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (₹1,296 to ₹2,894) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK) come from?
Earnings per share at TCPL Packaging Limited grew +13.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.4 %, EBIT margin +3.4 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of TCPL Packaging Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK)?
The market capitalisation of TCPL Packaging Limited is ₹35.7B (≈ $371M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TCPL Packaging Limited is 1.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK)?
Earnings per share at TCPL Packaging Limited are ₹126.82 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK)?
The dividend yield of TCPL Packaging Limited is 0.6% (payout 19.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK)?
The net margin of TCPL Packaging Limited is 5.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TCPL Packaging Limited is 14.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TCPL Packaging Limited is 11.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK)?
The operating margin of TCPL Packaging Limited is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK)?
Revenue at TCPL Packaging Limited is growing +16.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK)?
Earnings per share at TCPL Packaging Limited are growing +79.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPLPACK) carry?
The net debt of TCPL Packaging Limited is ₹6.1B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 9.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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