Theta Gold Mines Ltd (TGM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Theta Gold Mines Ltd stock A$0.02, price A$0.20, upside -91.3%, quality 16 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0500 – A$0.4000 · fair‑value band A$0.0170 – A$0.0255 · the A$0.1950 price screens above the A$0.0170 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 30, 2026.
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Theta Gold Mines Limited engages in the gold exploration and development business in South Africa. The company's flagship project is the TGME Gold Mine project located in South Africa.
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The company was formerly known as Stonewall Resources Limited and changed its name to Theta Gold Mines Limited in December 2018. Theta Gold Mines Limited was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Theta Gold Mines Ltd (TGM) currently trades at A$0.1950, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0170, 91.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: A$0.0170 (bear) to A$0.0255 (bull), the price of A$0.1950 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 16/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Theta Gold Mines Ltd reported revenue of $119K in FY2023 versus $94.0K in FY2019, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$3.1M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$261M (≈ $184M) Micro · Dividend yield 2.6% · Return on equity −16.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −14.2% · EPS growth (YoY) −69.5% · Free cash flow −$7.6M · Net debt $81.4M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 7 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −91%, TGM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.0170Fair Value A$0.0170BullA$0.0255
Price A$0.1950 · Upside -91.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham)A$0.0200A$0.0200A$0.030055
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$0.0200A$0.0200A$0.030055
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−33.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−391,437.4% (2018) → −3,577.3% (2023)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 201 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score16 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−91.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)0.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.60× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
P/B5.53× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)52· sector 28
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Theta Gold Mines Ltd (TGM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0170 versus a price of A$0.1950, about −91% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TGM?
Our model-based fair value for Theta Gold Mines Ltd is A$0.0170 (as of Oct 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1950.
What is the quality score of TGM?
Theta Gold Mines Ltd has a Quality Score of 16/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Theta Gold Mines Ltd (TGM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0170 (as of Oct 30, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0170, optimistic scenario A$0.0255. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Theta Gold Mines Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0170, about −91% upside versus a price of A$0.1950 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0170, optimistic scenario A$0.0255. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Theta Gold Mines Ltd pay a dividend?
Theta Gold Mines Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.61% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 30, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Theta Gold Mines Ltd (TGM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Theta Gold Mines Ltd it is A$0.0170 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026), against a price of A$0.1950. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Theta Gold Mines Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 30, 2026, TGM trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.1950, fair value A$0.0170, a gap of about −91% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TGM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1950); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0170). For Theta Gold Mines Ltd the two are A$0.1780 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Theta Gold Mines Ltd worth?
The market values Theta Gold Mines Ltd at about A$261M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 30, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1950; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0170 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TGM?
Our models span a range for Theta Gold Mines Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0170, base A$0.0170, optimistic A$0.0255 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026, price A$0.1950). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Theta Gold Mines Ltd (TGM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Theta Gold Mines Ltd (as of Oct 30, 2026): return on equity −16.6%, debt of 2.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 16/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TGM from its 52-week high?
Theta Gold Mines Ltd trades at A$0.1950, about 20% below its 52-week high of A$0.2450 and 26% above the low of A$0.1550 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0170 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Theta Gold Mines Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Theta Gold Mines Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 30, 2026: price A$0.1950, calculated fair value A$0.0170 (−91%), Quality Score 16/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TGM calculated?
We run Theta Gold Mines Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0170, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Theta Gold Mines Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Theta Gold Mines Ltd (TGM)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was A$0.1950. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0170, about −91% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Theta Gold Mines Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0255). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (16/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Theta Gold Mines Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Theta Gold Mines Ltd (TGM)?
The market capitalisation of Theta Gold Mines Ltd is A$261M (≈ $184M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the dividend yield of Theta Gold Mines Ltd (TGM)?
The dividend yield of Theta Gold Mines Ltd is 2.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the return on equity of Theta Gold Mines Ltd (TGM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Theta Gold Mines Ltd is −16.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Theta Gold Mines Ltd (TGM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Theta Gold Mines Ltd is −14.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast are earnings growing at Theta Gold Mines Ltd (TGM)?
Earnings per share at Theta Gold Mines Ltd are growing −69.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Theta Gold Mines Ltd (TGM) generate?
The free cash flow of Theta Gold Mines Ltd is −$7.6M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Theta Gold Mines Ltd (TGM) carry?
The net debt of Theta Gold Mines Ltd is $81.4M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 30, 2026