Theta Gold Mines Limited (TGM) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$235M
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated today
Share price −20.0% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range A$0.1550 – A$0.2700 · fair‑value band A$0.0340 – A$0.0680 · the A$0.1800 price screens above the A$0.0510 fair value. As of Jul 17, 2026.
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Theta Gold Mines Limited (TGM) currently trades at A$0.1800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0510, implying the stock looks roughly 71.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
It earns a return on equity of -8.3%. Net debt stands at A$9.8M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0340 (bear case) to A$0.0680 (bull case); at A$0.1800, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 71% fair-value upside, at -72%, TGM screens richer than that median.
Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
Theta Gold Mines Limited engages in the gold exploration and development business in South Africa. The company's flagship project is the TGME Gold Mine project located in South Africa. The company was formerly known as Stonewall Resources Limited and changed its name to Theta Gold Mines Limited in December 2018. Theta Gold Mines Limited was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2019 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Theta Gold Mines Limited reported revenue of A$119K in FY2023 versus A$94.0K in FY2019, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was −A$6.9M in FY2025.
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Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $112.00 | $186.78 | +67% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥30.44 | ¥62.26 | +105% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | $166.85 | $222.49 | +33% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $42.79 | $73.15 | +71% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp SII | €113.40 | €44.65 | -61% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | $208.46 | $157.56 | -24% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $78.47 | $160.21 | +104% |
| Gold Fields Limited GFI | $34.63 | $62.73 | +81% |
| Zijin Gold International Company 2259 | HK$94.30 | HK$83.81 | -11% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation K | C$36.50 | C$72.70 | +99% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.