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Tourism Holdings (THL) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$543M

TH Tourism Holdings THL · AU
PriceA$2.44
Fair ValueA$1.45
Upside-40.6%
Quality23/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -2.3% net margin
Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
2.88% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (7/12)
Narrow moat 29/100
Evidence: Low Range A$1.08 – A$1.45 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 3 valuation models · updated 29 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from A$1.75 to A$1.45 (−17.1%) since Jun 25, 2026.

Below-average quality, and screening another 41% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$1.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (23/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
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Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

A$3.54 A$1.18 Fair Value A$1.45 Dec 2022 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

44‑month range A$1.18 – A$3.54 · fair‑value band A$1.08 – A$1.45 · the A$2.44 price screens above the A$1.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Tourism Holdings (THL) currently trades at A$2.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.45, implying the stock looks roughly 40.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, Tourism Holdings generated revenue of A$956M at a net margin of -2.3%. Revenue grew 4.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.4%. Net debt stands at A$710M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from A$1.08 (bear case) to A$1.45 (bull case); at A$2.44, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 99% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at -41%, THL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EV/EBITDA A$0.7100 A$1.62 A$2.54 54
NCAV (Graham) A$1.30 A$1.75 A$2.61 50
Owner Earnings A$0.5100 A$1.82 31
All 3 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings A$0.5100 A$1.82 31
Multiples
EV/EBITDA A$0.7100 A$1.62 A$2.54 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$1.30 A$1.75 A$2.61 50

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (A$1.75) versus DCF Models (A$0.5100). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) A$956M
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.1%
Net margin -2.3%
Return on equity -3.4%
Free cash flow −A$13.8M FY2025
Operating margin 13.4%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) A$-0.1000
Dividend yield 3.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +15.7%
Net debt A$710M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 23/100

Of which business quality 25 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71

Profitability 24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 12
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 28
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 29
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 55
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 75
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 83
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 36
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Tourism Holdings Limited operates as a tourism company worldwide. It operates through New Zealand Rentals & Sales; Action Manufacturing; Tourism; Australia Rentals, Sales & Manufacturing; North America Rentals & Sales; United Kingdom & Ireland Rentals & Sales; and Corporate segments.

Full company description

Tourism Holdings Limited operates as a tourism company worldwide. It operates through New Zealand Rentals & Sales; Action Manufacturing; Tourism; Australia Rentals, Sales & Manufacturing; North America Rentals & Sales; United Kingdom & Ireland Rentals & Sales; and Corporate segments. The company is involved in manufacturing, rental, and sale of motorhomes; manufacturing and sale of other speciality vehicles; sale of ex-rental fleet and new and used RVs direct to the public and through a dealer network; and provision of Kiwi Experience bus tours and Discover Waitomo Caves Group experiences. It also rents 4WD vehicles; and manufacture of recreational vehicles (RVs). The company offers its rental vehicles under the Maui, CanaDream, Road Bear, Just go, Apollo, El Monte RV, Britz, Bunk Camper, Mighty, Cheapa Campa, and Hippie brands; vehicle bodies and trailers under the Action, Freighter, Transcold, and Fairfax brands; and sells new and used motorhomes, campervans, and caravans under the RV Super Centre, SydneyRV, Georgeday, Kratzmann, CamperAgent brands. In addition, it operates app-based travel platform Camper Mate, a Travel technology to explore and book adventures throughout Australia and New Zealand; Kiwi Experience, a hop-on hop-off and small-group bus tours; and Discover Waitomo to explore natural wonders, culture, and adventure experiences of the Waitomo region. The company was formerly known as The Helicopter Line and changed its name to Tourism Holdings Limited in 1996. Tourism Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Auckland, New Zealand.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tourism Holdings reported revenue of A$937M in FY2025 versus A$359M in FY2021, a compound +27.1%/yr. Reported net income was −A$25.8M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 36/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
A$937M
Latest YoY
+1.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+39.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.5%
Avg. growth/yr (28Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.2%
Revenue +27.1%/yr
FY21 A$359M
FY22 A$346M
FY23 A$610M
FY24 A$922M
FY25 A$937M
Net income
FY21 −A$13.7M
FY22 −A$1.5M
FY23 A$49.9M
FY24 A$39.4M
FY25 −A$25.8M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +4.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +7.2 pp

of which total revenue +14.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −7.0 pp

EBIT margin −2.2 pp
Tax rate +1.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.0 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

THL screens 41% overvalued. Compare with Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tourism Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/THL

Peer Group

Recreational Vehicles · 37 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −41% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) -2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.9% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.87× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Recreational Vehicles median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.66× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.40× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 5.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 33
FUTURE 21 · sector 15
PAST 0 · sector 18
HEALTH 57 · sector 88
DIVIDEND 58 · sector 57

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is Tourism Holdings (THL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.45 versus a price of A$2.44, about −41% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of THL?
Our model-based fair value for Tourism Holdings is A$1.45 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is A$2.44.
What is the quality score of THL?
Tourism Holdings has a Quality Score of 23/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Tourism Holdings (THL)?
Tourism Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$956M (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of THL?
The net profit margin of Tourism Holdings is about -2.3%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Tourism Holdings pay a dividend?
Tourism Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.33% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 12, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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