Tourism Holdings (THL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$543M
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from A$1.75 to A$1.45 (−17.1%) since Jun 25, 2026.
Below-average quality, and screening another 41% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$1.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (23/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
44‑month range A$1.18 – A$3.54 · fair‑value band A$1.08 – A$1.45 · the A$2.44 price screens above the A$1.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Tourism Holdings (THL) currently trades at A$2.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.45, implying the stock looks roughly 40.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Tourism Holdings generated revenue of A$956M at a net margin of -2.3%. Revenue grew 4.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.4%. Net debt stands at A$710M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$1.08 (bear case) to A$1.45 (bull case); at A$2.44, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 99% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at -41%, THL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (A$1.75) versus DCF Models (A$0.5100). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 25 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tourism Holdings Limited operates as a tourism company worldwide. It operates through New Zealand Rentals & Sales; Action Manufacturing; Tourism; Australia Rentals, Sales & Manufacturing; North America Rentals & Sales; United Kingdom & Ireland Rentals & Sales; and Corporate segments.
Full company description
Tourism Holdings Limited operates as a tourism company worldwide. It operates through New Zealand Rentals & Sales; Action Manufacturing; Tourism; Australia Rentals, Sales & Manufacturing; North America Rentals & Sales; United Kingdom & Ireland Rentals & Sales; and Corporate segments. The company is involved in manufacturing, rental, and sale of motorhomes; manufacturing and sale of other speciality vehicles; sale of ex-rental fleet and new and used RVs direct to the public and through a dealer network; and provision of Kiwi Experience bus tours and Discover Waitomo Caves Group experiences. It also rents 4WD vehicles; and manufacture of recreational vehicles (RVs). The company offers its rental vehicles under the Maui, CanaDream, Road Bear, Just go, Apollo, El Monte RV, Britz, Bunk Camper, Mighty, Cheapa Campa, and Hippie brands; vehicle bodies and trailers under the Action, Freighter, Transcold, and Fairfax brands; and sells new and used motorhomes, campervans, and caravans under the RV Super Centre, SydneyRV, Georgeday, Kratzmann, CamperAgent brands. In addition, it operates app-based travel platform Camper Mate, a Travel technology to explore and book adventures throughout Australia and New Zealand; Kiwi Experience, a hop-on hop-off and small-group bus tours; and Discover Waitomo to explore natural wonders, culture, and adventure experiences of the Waitomo region. The company was formerly known as The Helicopter Line and changed its name to Tourism Holdings Limited in 1996. Tourism Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Auckland, New Zealand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tourism Holdings reported revenue of A$937M in FY2025 versus A$359M in FY2021, a compound +27.1%/yr. Reported net income was −A$25.8M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +14.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −7.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
THL screens 41% overvalued. Compare with Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co →
Peer Group
Recreational Vehicles · 37 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Recreational Vehicles median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Recreational Vehicles stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
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|---|---|---|---|
| Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co 603129 | ¥293.01 | ¥199.10 | -32% |
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| BRP Inc DOO | C$85.96 | C$86.81 | +1% |
| Polaris Inc PII | $67.40 | $29.83 | -56% |
| THOR Industries, Inc THO | $72.86 | $97.14 | +33% |
| Trigano S.A TRI | €149.60 | €273.48 | +83% |
| Patrick Industries, Inc PATK | $82.70 | $85.54 | +3% |
| Harley-Davidson, Inc HOG | $26.81 | $64.09 | +139% |
| LCI Industries, LCII | $108.17 | $156.35 | +45% |
| Sanlorenzo S.p.A SL | €38.30 | €40.65 | +6% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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