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Gentherm Inc (THRM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Gentherm Inc $27.95, price $35.25, upside -20.7%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Cyclical · US · ISIN US37253A1034

GI Gentherm Inc logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Gentherm Inc

THRM · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $27.95 · Overvalued (−21%)
!Quality 57/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +10.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Narrow moat 32/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 6 out of 100
!Weak on past: 13 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$98.58 $23.32 Fair Value $27.95 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $23.32 – $98.58 · fair‑value band $22.27 – $36.33 · the $35.25 price screens above the $27.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Gentherm Incorporated designs, develops, manufactures, and sells thermal management and pneumatic comfort technologies in the United States, China, Germany, Czech Republic, South Korea, Mexico, Slovakia, Romania, Japan, United Kingdom and internationally. It operates in two segments, Automotive and Medical.

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Gentherm Incorporated designs, develops, manufactures, and sells thermal management and pneumatic comfort technologies in the United States, China, Germany, Czech Republic, South Korea, Mexico, Slovakia, Romania, Japan, United Kingdom and internationally. It operates in two segments, Automotive and Medical. The company offers climate comfort systems, including seat heaters, blowers, and thermoelectric devices for variable temperature climate control seats and steering wheel heaters to provide thermal comfort to automobile passengers; integrated electronic components, such as electronic control units; pneumatic lumbar and massage comfort solutions comprising lumbar support, side bolster adjustment, multi-contour seats and massage systems; and other climate and comfort systems, including neck and shoulder conditioners, and climate control systems for door panels and armrests. It also provides automotive cable technology, such as ready-made individual cables and ready-to-install cable networks used to connect components to power sources; battery performance solutions consist of cell connecting devices and battery cable technologies used for various types of batteries and thermal management products; valve systems for brake and engine systems, and fuel management; and electronic and software systems include electronic control units for climate and comfort systems, and electronic control units for memory seat modules and other devices. In addition, the company offers patient temperature management systems under the Blanketrol and Astotherm brands for hyper-hypothermia therapy in intensive care, normothermia in surgical procedures, and additional warming/cooling therapies. It serves light vehicle original equipment manufacturers and tier 1, and medical industry. Gentherm Incorporated was formerly known as Amerigon Incorporated and changed its name to Gentherm Incorporated in September 2012. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Northville, Michigan.

Stock analysis

Gentherm Inc (THRM) currently trades at $35.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.95, implying the stock looks roughly 26.1% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $48.65 per share, and 9 of the 24 models we run sit above the $35.25 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $12.06, and 15 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $22.27 (bear) to $36.33 (bull), the price of $35.25 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Gentherm Inc reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2025 versus $1.0B in FY2021, a compound +9.3%/yr. Reported net income was $18.3M in FY2025, compounding −33.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $1.1B · P/E ratio 48.3 · P/S ratio 0.59 · EPS (TTM) $0.7300 · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity 3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3% · Operating margin 8.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −21%, THRM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $22.27 Fair Value $27.95 Bull $36.33
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5340 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $29.08 $45.62 $89.42 77
Growth DCF $27.53 $48.65 $84.89 76
EPV $14.86 $17.02 $18.81 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $29.08 $45.62 $89.42 77
Owner Earnings $10.17 $22.07 $44.15 71
5Y Revenue Exit $24.95 $45.72 $85.97 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $33.83 $64.90 $121.67 71
5Y P/E Exit $15.28 $26.92 $41.08 69
10Y Revenue Exit $25.21 $49.66 $77.71 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $31.73 $65.03 $125.50 64
10Y P/E Exit $19.77 $32.92 $53.49 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $4.05 $28.27 $39.68 63
Lynch FV $8.44 $12.06 $15.67 61
PEG = 1.0 $8.44 $12.06 $15.67 57
EPV $14.86 $17.02 $18.81 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $9.84 $13.12 $16.40 63
P/S Multiple $7.60 $10.14 $12.67 58
P/B Multiple $7.60 $10.14 $12.67 55
EV/EBIT $33.44 $44.89 $56.35 66
EV/EBITDA $37.65 $50.51 $63.37 67
EV/Revenue $22.24 $32.17 $42.09 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $11.74 $15.74 $23.49 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $27.53 $48.65 $84.89 76
Rev-Margin DCF $24.95 $48.65 $84.00 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income $15.76 $14.77 $11.10 71
ROIC Compounder $14.86 $17.02 $18.81 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $11.74 $16.77 $21.80 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 14
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 67
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 34
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 39
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 99
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.7% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−15.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−20% vs −12%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.3% a year for the price and +2.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+4.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.8%

THRM screens 26% overvalued. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 695 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside −21% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.26× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 48.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.51× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.71× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 17.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 6.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.02× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)6 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)57 · sector 19
PAST (return on equity)13 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)87 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 38

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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$27.95 −26%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gentherm Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/THRM

Frequently asked questions

Is Gentherm Inc (THRM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $27.95 versus a price of $35.25, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of THRM?
Our model-based fair value for Gentherm Inc is $27.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $35.25.
What is the quality score of THRM?
Gentherm Inc has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gentherm Inc (THRM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $27.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.27, optimistic scenario $36.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gentherm Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $27.95, about −21% upside versus a price of $35.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $22.27, optimistic scenario $36.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gentherm Inc (THRM)?
Gentherm Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gentherm Inc (THRM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gentherm Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +14.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of THRM use?
Our models discount Gentherm Inc at 12.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.39, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gentherm Inc that is +14.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gentherm Inc (THRM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gentherm Inc grew +10.4 % a year. The price currently implies +14.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gentherm Inc (THRM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gentherm Inc (+14.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gentherm Inc (THRM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.60 %: that much free cash flow Gentherm Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gentherm Inc (THRM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gentherm Inc it is $27.95 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $35.25. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gentherm Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, THRM trades above its calculated fair value: price $35.25, fair value $27.95, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of THRM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($35.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($27.95). For Gentherm Inc the two are $7.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gentherm Inc worth?
The market values Gentherm Inc at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $35.25; our models calculate a fair value of $27.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about THRM?
Our models span a range for Gentherm Inc: cautious scenario $22.27, base $27.95, optimistic $36.33 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $35.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of THRM?
Gentherm Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 48.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $27.95 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 1.5, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 6.7.
What is the PEG ratio of THRM?
The PEG ratio of Gentherm Inc is 1.02 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gentherm Inc (THRM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gentherm Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.3%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is THRM from its 52-week high?
Gentherm Inc trades at $35.25, about 23% below its 52-week high of $45.61 and 30% above the low of $27.21 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $27.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gentherm Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gentherm Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $35.25, calculated fair value $27.95 (−21%), Quality Score 57/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of THRM calculated?
We run Gentherm Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $27.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Gentherm Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gentherm Inc (THRM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $35.25. Our model-based fair value is $27.95, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gentherm Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Gentherm Inc (THRM) come from?
Earnings per share at Gentherm Inc grew −5.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.7 %, EBIT margin −8.0 %, tax rate −1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Gentherm Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Gentherm Inc (THRM)?
The market capitalisation of Gentherm Inc is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gentherm Inc (THRM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gentherm Inc is 0.59 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gentherm Inc (THRM)?
Earnings per share at Gentherm Inc are $0.7300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 48.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Gentherm Inc (THRM)?
The net margin of Gentherm Inc is 1.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gentherm Inc (THRM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gentherm Inc is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gentherm Inc (THRM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gentherm Inc is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gentherm Inc (THRM)?
The operating margin of Gentherm Inc is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gentherm Inc (THRM)?
Revenue at Gentherm Inc is growing +11.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gentherm Inc (THRM)?
Earnings per share at Gentherm Inc are growing −81.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Gentherm Inc (THRM) carry?
The net debt of Gentherm Inc is $134M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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