Thule Group (THULE) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · SE · Market cap 22.8B SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +8.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 34% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (kr 70.79 to kr 237.94). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 179.71 – kr 468.81 · fair‑value band kr 70.79 – kr 237.94 · the kr 216.80 price screens above the kr 142.22 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Thule Group (THULE) currently trades at kr 216.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 142.22, implying the stock looks roughly 34.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Thule Group generated revenue of 10.3B SEK at a net margin of 11.0%. Revenue declined 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.7%. Net debt stands at 4.1B SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 70.79 (bear case) to kr 237.94 (bull case); at kr 216.80, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -34%, THULE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (kr 206.00) versus Asset-Based (kr 44.91). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Thule Group AB (publ) operates as a sports and outdoor company in Europe, North America, and internationally. It offers roof boxes, roof racks, bike carriers, rooftop tents, and windbreakers, as well as solutions for water and winter sports.
Full company description
Thule Group AB (publ) operates as a sports and outdoor company in Europe, North America, and internationally. It offers roof boxes, roof racks, bike carriers, rooftop tents, and windbreakers, as well as solutions for water and winter sports. The company also provides bike trailers, jogging and all-terrain strollers, child bikes, car seats, and carriers and harnesses for dog transportation; and duffel bags, backpacks, luggage, laptop bags, hiking backpacks, camera bags, and cases for consumer electronics. It sells its products under the Case Logic, Thule, and Quad Lock brands. The company was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Thule Group reported revenue of kr 10.4B in FY2025 versus kr 10.4B in FY2021, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was kr 1.1B in FY2025, compounding −11.2%/yr from FY2021.
THULE screens 34% overvalued. Compare with ANTA Sports Products Limited →
Peer Group
Leisure · 192 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$74.15 | HK$119.29 | +61% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$160.20 | HK$227.30 | +42% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $36.44 | $16.16 | -56% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $81.55 | $83.38 | +2% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $42.15 | $16.15 | -62% |
| Acushnet Holdings GOLF | $114.78 | $37.79 | -67% |
| Li Ning Company 2331 | HK$14.80 | HK$29.26 | +98% |
| Benefit Systems S.A BFT | 5,255 PLN | 3,714 PLN | -29% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥37.82 | ¥39.17 | +4% |
| Asmodee Group ASMDEEB | kr 145.70 | kr 41.90 | -71% |
Compare Thule Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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