Thule Group AB (THULE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Thule Group AB SEK 142, price SEK 199, upside -28.7%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 179.71 – kr 468.81 · fair‑value band kr 73.66 – kr 232.24 · the kr 198.50 price screens above the kr 141.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Thule Group AB (publ) operates as a sports and outdoor company in Europe, North America, and internationally. It offers roof boxes, roof racks, bike carriers, rooftop tents, and windbreakers, as well as solutions for water and winter sports.
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Thule Group AB (publ) operates as a sports and outdoor company in Europe, North America, and internationally. It offers roof boxes, roof racks, bike carriers, rooftop tents, and windbreakers, as well as solutions for water and winter sports. The company also provides bike trailers, jogging and all-terrain strollers, child bikes, car seats, and carriers and harnesses for dog transportation; and duffel bags, backpacks, luggage, laptop bags, hiking backpacks, camera bags, and cases for consumer electronics. It sells its products under the Case Logic, Thule, and Quad Lock brands. The company was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Thule Group AB (THULE) currently trades at kr 198.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 141.50, implying the stock looks roughly 40.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 203.93 per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 198.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 44.91, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 73.66 (bear) to kr 232.24 (bull), the price of kr 198.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Thule Group AB reported revenue of 10.4B SEK in FY2025 versus 10.4B SEK in FY2021, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1B SEK in FY2025, compounding −11.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 21.4B SEK (≈ $2.2B) · P/E ratio 18.7 · P/S ratio 2.00 · EPS (TTM) kr 10.59 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 10.7% · Return on equity 14.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at −29%, THULE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 73.66Fair Value kr 141.50Bull kr 232.24
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 1.68 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.0% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2% vs 7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 16%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.3% a year for the price and +2.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (20 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 189 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside−25% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)11% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.55× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)18.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.96× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)2.07× · Pricier than median
P/FCF2.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA13.1× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 43
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 14
PAST (return on equity)59· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)73· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)84· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thule Group AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/THULE
Frequently asked questions
Is Thule Group AB (THULE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 141.50 versus a price of kr 198.50, about −29% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of THULE?
Our model-based fair value for Thule Group AB is kr 141.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 198.50.
What is the quality score of THULE?
Thule Group AB has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thule Group AB (THULE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 141.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 73.66, optimistic scenario kr 232.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thule Group AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 141.50, about −29% upside versus a price of kr 198.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 73.66, optimistic scenario kr 232.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thule Group AB (THULE)?
Thule Group AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 10.3B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Thule Group AB pay a dividend?
Thule Group AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.18% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Thule Group AB (THULE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Thule Group AB would have to grow free cash flow by +19.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of THULE use?
Our models discount Thule Group AB at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.28, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Thule Group AB that is +19.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Thule Group AB (THULE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Thule Group AB grew +5.9 % a year. The price currently implies +19.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Thule Group AB (THULE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Thule Group AB (+19.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Thule Group AB (THULE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.66 %: that much free cash flow Thule Group AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Thule Group AB (THULE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thule Group AB it is kr 141.50 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 198.50. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Thule Group AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, THULE trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 198.50, fair value kr 141.50, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of THULE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 198.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 141.50). For Thule Group AB the two are kr 57.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thule Group AB worth?
The market values Thule Group AB at about 21.4B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 198.50; our models calculate a fair value of kr 141.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about THULE?
Our models span a range for Thule Group AB: cautious scenario kr 73.66, base kr 141.50, optimistic kr 232.24 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 198.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of THULE?
Thule Group AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 141.50 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.0, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 13.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Thule Group AB (THULE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Thule Group AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.7%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is THULE from its 52-week high?
Thule Group AB trades at kr 198.50, about 21% below its 52-week high of kr 250.93 and 7% above the low of kr 185.99 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 141.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thule Group AB?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value ANTA Sports Products Limited, Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thule Group AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 198.50, calculated fair value kr 141.50 (−29%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of THULE calculated?
We run Thule Group AB through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 141.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Thule Group AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thule Group AB (THULE)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 198.50. Our model-based fair value is kr 141.50, about −29% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thule Group AB right now?
The model range is unusually wide (kr 73.66 to kr 232.24). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Thule Group AB (THULE) come from?
Earnings per share at Thule Group AB grew +7.8 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.4 %, EBIT margin −0.2 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Thule Group AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Thule Group AB (THULE)?
The market capitalisation of Thule Group AB is 21.4B SEK (≈ $2.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Thule Group AB (THULE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thule Group AB is 2.00 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Thule Group AB (THULE)?
Earnings per share at Thule Group AB are kr 10.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Thule Group AB (THULE)?
The dividend yield of Thule Group AB is 4.2% (payout 78.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Thule Group AB (THULE)?
The net margin of Thule Group AB is 10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thule Group AB (THULE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thule Group AB is 14.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thule Group AB (THULE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thule Group AB is 14.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thule Group AB (THULE)?
The operating margin of Thule Group AB is 16.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thule Group AB (THULE)?
Revenue at Thule Group AB is growing −3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thule Group AB (THULE)?
Earnings per share at Thule Group AB are growing +10.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Thule Group AB (THULE) carry?
The net debt of Thule Group AB is 4.1B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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