Tivoli A/S (TIV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tivoli A/S stock DKK 305, price DKK 618, that is 50.6% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 578.08 – kr 877.23 · fair‑value band kr 149.65 – kr 459.51 · the kr 618.00 price screens above the kr 305.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Tivoli A/S operates as an amusement and experience business in Denmark.
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The company operates Tivoli Gardens Amusement Park, which offers rides, restaurants, shops, and games; Nimb Hotel, a 5-star boutique hotel; Nimb Club with fitness, pool, and spa; restaurants and outlets under the Nimb brand; and the Pantomime Theatre, Tivoli Youth Guard, and Tivoli Ballet School.
It also provides programs, such as concerts, events, shows, and other entertainment programs. The company was founded in 1843 and is based in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Tivoli A/S (TIV) currently trades at kr 618.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 305.08, 51% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 468.87 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the kr 618.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at kr 86.60, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 149.65 (bear) to kr 459.51 (bull), the price of kr 618.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Tivoli A/S reported revenue of 1.3B DKK in FY2025 versus 719M DKK in FY2021, a compound +16.9%/yr. Reported net income was 122M DKK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 3.5B DKK (≈ $524M) Small · P/E ratio 35.2 · P/S ratio 2.55 · EPS (TTM) kr 17.57 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 7.4% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −51%, TIV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 149.65Fair Value kr 305.08Bullkr 459.51
Price kr 618.00 · Downside -50.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 10.35 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.0% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6.2% vs 10.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−37% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+39.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Denmark: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +37.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 169 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−50.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.3% · Above median
Return on assets6.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)7.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)9.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tivoli A/S Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TIV
Frequently asked questions
Is Tivoli A/S (TIV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 305.08 versus a price of kr 618.00, about 51% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TIV?
Our model-based fair value for Tivoli A/S is kr 305.08 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 618.00.
What is the quality score of TIV?
Tivoli A/S has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tivoli A/S (TIV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 305.08 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 149.65, optimistic scenario kr 459.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tivoli A/S stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 305.08, about 51% lower versus a price of kr 618.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 149.65, optimistic scenario kr 459.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tivoli A/S (TIV)?
Tivoli A/S reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4B DKK (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Tivoli A/S pay a dividend?
Tivoli A/S currently shows a dividend yield of 0.89% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Tivoli A/S (TIV) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Tivoli A/S pays a dividend of kr 5.50 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 29, 2026. The payout ratio is 31.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.23 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Tivoli A/S (TIV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tivoli A/S would have to grow free cash flow by +39.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.0 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TIV use?
Our models discount Tivoli A/S at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for Denmark. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tivoli A/S that is +39.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tivoli A/S (TIV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tivoli A/S grew +23.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +39.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tivoli A/S (TIV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tivoli A/S (+39.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tivoli A/S (TIV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.10 %: that much free cash flow Tivoli A/S produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tivoli A/S (TIV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tivoli A/S it is kr 305.08 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of kr 618.00. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Tivoli A/S stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, TIV trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 618.00, fair value kr 305.08, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TIV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 618.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 305.08). For Tivoli A/S the two are kr 312.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tivoli A/S worth?
The market values Tivoli A/S at about 3.5B DKK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is kr 618.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 305.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TIV?
Our models span a range for Tivoli A/S: cautious scenario kr 149.65, base kr 305.08, optimistic kr 459.51 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price kr 618.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TIV?
Tivoli A/S trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.2 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 305.08 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 35.9. Other multiples: P/B 2.8, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 14.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tivoli A/S (TIV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tivoli A/S (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TIV from its 52-week high?
Tivoli A/S trades at kr 618.00, about 5% below its 52-week high of kr 650.48 and 6% above the low of kr 581.07 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 305.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tivoli A/S?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, Life Time Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tivoli A/S stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price kr 618.00, calculated fair value kr 305.08 (−51%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TIV calculated?
We run Tivoli A/S through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of kr 305.08 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Tivoli A/S itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tivoli A/S (TIV)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was kr 618.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 305.08, about 51% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tivoli A/S right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 459.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (kr 149.65 to kr 459.51). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Tivoli A/S (TIV) come from?
Earnings per share at Tivoli A/S grew +8.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.5 %, EBIT margin +2.5 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tivoli A/S
How large is the market capitalisation of Tivoli A/S (TIV)?
The market capitalisation of Tivoli A/S is 3.5B DKK (≈ $524M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tivoli A/S (TIV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tivoli A/S is 2.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tivoli A/S (TIV)?
Earnings per share at Tivoli A/S are kr 17.57 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tivoli A/S (TIV)?
The dividend yield of Tivoli A/S is 0.9% (payout 31.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tivoli A/S (TIV)?
The net margin of Tivoli A/S is 7.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tivoli A/S (TIV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tivoli A/S is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tivoli A/S (TIV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tivoli A/S is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tivoli A/S (TIV)?
The operating margin of Tivoli A/S is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tivoli A/S (TIV)?
Revenue at Tivoli A/S is growing +3.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tivoli A/S (TIV)?
Earnings per share at Tivoli A/S are growing −31.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tivoli A/S (TIV) carry?
The net debt of Tivoli A/S is 252M DKK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026