Tivoli A/S (TIV) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · DK · Market cap 3.6B DKK
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price −1.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 47% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 567.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (kr 193.72 to kr 567.25). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 578.08 – kr 900.63 · fair‑value band kr 193.72 – kr 567.25 · the kr 630.00 price screens above the kr 335.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Tivoli A/S (TIV) currently trades at kr 630.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 335.14, implying the stock looks roughly 46.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Tivoli A/S generated revenue of 1.4B DKK at a net margin of 8.4%. Revenue grew 16.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.5%. Net debt stands at 252M DKK. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 193.72 (bear case) to kr 567.25 (bull case); at kr 630.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -47%, TIV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (kr 361.31) versus Dividend Discount (kr 81.75). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tivoli A/S operates as an amusement and experience business in Denmark. The company operates Tivoli Gardens Amusement Park, which offers rides, restaurants, shops, and games; Nimb Hotel, a 5-star boutique hotel; Nimb Club with fitness, pool, and spa; restaurants and outlets under the Nimb brand; and the Pantomime Theatre, Tivoli Youth Guard, and Tivoli …
Full company description
Tivoli A/S operates as an amusement and experience business in Denmark. The company operates Tivoli Gardens Amusement Park, which offers rides, restaurants, shops, and games; Nimb Hotel, a 5-star boutique hotel; Nimb Club with fitness, pool, and spa; restaurants and outlets under the Nimb brand; and the Pantomime Theatre, Tivoli Youth Guard, and Tivoli Ballet School. It also provides programs, such as concerts, events, shows, and other entertainment programs. The company was founded in 1843 and is based in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tivoli A/S reported revenue of kr 1.3B in FY2025 versus kr 719M in FY2021, a compound +16.9%/yr. Reported net income was kr 122M in FY2025.
TIV screens 47% overvalued. Compare with ANTA Sports Products Limited →
Peer Group
Leisure · 192 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$74.15 | HK$119.29 | +61% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$160.20 | HK$227.30 | +42% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $36.44 | $16.16 | -56% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $81.55 | $83.38 | +2% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $42.15 | $16.15 | -62% |
| Acushnet Holdings GOLF | $114.78 | $37.79 | -67% |
| Li Ning Company 2331 | HK$14.80 | HK$29.26 | +98% |
| Benefit Systems S.A BFT | 5,255 PLN | 3,714 PLN | -29% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥37.82 | ¥39.17 | +4% |
| Asmodee Group ASMDEEB | kr 145.70 | kr 41.90 | -71% |
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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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