Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tekfen Holding AS stock TRY 163, price TRY 191, upside -14.8%, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 11.90 TRY – 277.50 TRY · fair‑value band 136.88 TRY – 190.24 TRY · the 191.40 TRY price screens above the 163.00 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Oct 30, 2026.
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Tekfen Holding Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering and contracting, agriculture, and investment businesses in Turkey, CIS, the Middle Eastern countries, and internationally.
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The company provides turnkey solutions for various facilities, including pipelines, oil and gas terminals, tank farms, oil refineries, offshore oil rigs, pump and compressor stations, power plants, industrial plants, petrochemical plants, highway and metro projects, sports complexes, steel structures, and superstructure and infrastructure projects.
It is also involved in the agricultural input production of seeds and saplings, as well as the production of fertilizers. In addition, the company engages in trading, agriculture shipping agent, fruit manufacturing, fertilizer trade, and energy activities.
Further, it provides insurance and management services. Tekfen Holding Anonim Sirketi was founded in 1956 and is based in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN) currently trades at 191.40 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 163.00 TRY, 14.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 81.59 TRY per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the 191.40 TRY price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 47.09 TRY, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 136.88 TRY (bear) to 190.24 TRY (bull), the price of 191.40 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Tekfen Holding AS reported revenue of 53.9B TRY in FY2025 versus 16.2B TRY in FY2021, a compound +35.0%/yr. Reported net income was −5.7B TRY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 68.2B TRY (≈ $1.4B) Small · P/S ratio 1.38 · EPS (TTM) −7.75 TRY · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin −4.5% · Return on equity −6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9% · Operating margin 7.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 19 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 185% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at −15%, TKFEN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear136.88 TRYFair Value 163.00 TRYBull190.24 TRY
Price 191.40 TRY · Upside -14.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−29.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +30.1% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.2% (2020) → −1.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+38.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 162 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−14.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−7.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−4.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)7.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−18.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tekfen Holding AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TKFEN
Frequently asked questions
Is Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 163.00 TRY versus a price of 191.40 TRY, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TKFEN?
Our model-based fair value for Tekfen Holding AS is 163.00 TRY (as of Oct 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 191.40 TRY.
What is the quality score of TKFEN?
Tekfen Holding AS has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 163.00 TRY (as of Oct 30, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario 136.88 TRY, optimistic scenario 190.24 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tekfen Holding AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 163.00 TRY, about −15% upside versus a price of 191.40 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 136.88 TRY, optimistic scenario 190.24 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN)?
Tekfen Holding AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 47.9B TRY (latest available figure, as of Oct 30, 2026).
Does Tekfen Holding AS pay a dividend?
Tekfen Holding AS currently shows a dividend yield of 0.22% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tekfen Holding AS would have to grow free cash flow by +38.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +35.7 % per year. As of Oct 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TKFEN use?
Our models discount Tekfen Holding AS at 15.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tekfen Holding AS that is +38.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tekfen Holding AS grew +35.7 % a year. The price currently implies +38.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tekfen Holding AS (+38.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.58 %: that much free cash flow Tekfen Holding AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tekfen Holding AS it is 163.00 TRY per share (as of Oct 30, 2026), against a price of 191.40 TRY. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tekfen Holding AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 30, 2026, TKFEN trades above its calculated fair value: price 191.40 TRY, fair value 163.00 TRY, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TKFEN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (191.40 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (163.00 TRY). For Tekfen Holding AS the two are 28.40 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tekfen Holding AS worth?
The market values Tekfen Holding AS at about 68.2B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 30, 2026). Per share that is 191.40 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 163.00 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TKFEN?
Our models span a range for Tekfen Holding AS: cautious scenario 136.88 TRY, base 163.00 TRY, optimistic 190.24 TRY per share (as of Oct 30, 2026, price 191.40 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tekfen Holding AS (as of Oct 30, 2026): return on equity −6.2%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TKFEN from its 52-week high?
Tekfen Holding AS trades at 191.40 TRY, about 31% below its 52-week high of 277.50 TRY and 185% above the low of 67.08 TRY (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 163.00 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tekfen Holding AS?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, Yara International ASA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tekfen Holding AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 30, 2026: price 191.40 TRY, calculated fair value 163.00 TRY (−15%), Quality Score 32/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TKFEN calculated?
We run Tekfen Holding AS through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 163.00 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tekfen Holding AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was 191.40 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 163.00 TRY, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tekfen Holding AS right now?
The price sits above our optimistic bull case: the favourable scenario is already priced in. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Tekfen Holding AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN)?
The market capitalisation of Tekfen Holding AS is 68.2B TRY (≈ $1.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tekfen Holding AS is 1.38 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN)?
Earnings per share at Tekfen Holding AS are −7.75 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN)?
The dividend yield of Tekfen Holding AS is 0.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN)?
The net margin of Tekfen Holding AS is −4.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tekfen Holding AS is −6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tekfen Holding AS is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN)?
The operating margin of Tekfen Holding AS is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN)?
Revenue at Tekfen Holding AS is growing −18.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN)?
Earnings per share at Tekfen Holding AS are growing −66.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tekfen Holding AS (TKFEN) carry?
The net debt of Tekfen Holding AS is 5.8B TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 30, 2026