Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tandy Leather Factory Inc stock $2.06, price $2.26, upside -8.7%, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.46 – $2.68 · fair‑value band $1.56 – $2.86 · the $2.26 price screens above the $2.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 29, 2026.
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Tandy Leather Factory, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails leather and leathercraft-related items in the United States, Canada, and Spain. It offers leather, hand tools, hardware, kits, liquids, teaching materials, open workbenches, machines, and other supplies.
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The company manufactures leather laces, cut leather pieces, do-it-yourself kits, thread laces, belt strips and straps, and Craftaid tooling template through its stores and website, as well as direct account representative.
In addition, it offers production services, including cutting, splitting, and assembly services to commercial and business customers.
The company sells its products to retail customers, including hobbyists, schools, camps, other businesses, as well as military and first responders under the Tandy Leather, Eco-Flo, Craftool, CraftoolPro, Dr. Jackson's, and TandyPro brand names.
The company was formerly known as The Leather Factory, Inc. and changed its name to Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. in 2005. Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Benbrook, Texas.
Stock analysis
Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF) currently trades at $2.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.06, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $18.86 per share, and 10 of the 11 models we run sit above the $2.26 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.02, and 1 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $1.56 (bear) to $2.86 (bull), the price of $2.26 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Tandy Leather Factory Inc reported revenue of $76.3M in FY2025 versus $82.7M in FY2021, a compound −2.0%/yr. Reported net income was $9.1M in FY2025, compounding +61.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $18.4M Micro · P/S ratio 0.24 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1800 · Net margin −2.1% · Return on equity −3.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% · Operating margin 3.0% · Revenue (TTM) $77.2M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −9%, TLF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$1.56Fair Value $2.06Bull$2.86
Price $2.26 · Upside -8.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.33/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.0% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
≈ +38.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +38.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 48.0% / 4.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−10% → −1%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.21 per share, median 0.56 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Compare Tandy Leather Factory Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 208 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−8.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets10.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)−2.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)3.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
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Is Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.06 versus a price of $2.26, about −9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TLF?
Our model-based fair value for Tandy Leather Factory Inc is $2.06 (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.26.
What is the quality score of TLF?
Tandy Leather Factory Inc has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.06 (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.56, optimistic scenario $2.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tandy Leather Factory Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.06, about −9% upside versus a price of $2.26 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $1.56, optimistic scenario $2.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF)?
Tandy Leather Factory Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $77.2M (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tandy Leather Factory Inc it is $2.06 per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of $2.26. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tandy Leather Factory Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, TLF trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.26, fair value $2.06, a gap of about −9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.06). For Tandy Leather Factory Inc the two are $0.1960 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tandy Leather Factory Inc worth?
The market values Tandy Leather Factory Inc at about $18.4M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is $2.26; our models calculate a fair value of $2.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TLF?
Our models span a range for Tandy Leather Factory Inc: cautious scenario $1.56, base $2.06, optimistic $2.86 per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price $2.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of TLF?
The PEG ratio of Tandy Leather Factory Inc is 5.92 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tandy Leather Factory Inc (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity −3.2%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TLF from its 52-week high?
Tandy Leather Factory Inc trades at $2.26, about 16% below its 52-week high of $2.68 and 51% above the low of $1.50 (as of Oct 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tandy Leather Factory Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tandy Leather Factory Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price $2.26, calculated fair value $2.06 (−9%), Quality Score 61/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TLF calculated?
We run Tandy Leather Factory Inc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Tandy Leather Factory Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF)?
The closing price on Oct 29, 2026 was $2.26. Our model-based fair value is $2.06, about −9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tandy Leather Factory Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($1.56 to $2.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF) come from?
Earnings per share at Tandy Leather Factory Inc grew −10.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.5 %, EBIT margin −14.8 %, tax rate +3.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tandy Leather Factory Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF)?
The market capitalisation of Tandy Leather Factory Inc is $18.4M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tandy Leather Factory Inc is 0.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF)?
Earnings per share at Tandy Leather Factory Inc are $−0.1800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF)?
The net margin of Tandy Leather Factory Inc is −2.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tandy Leather Factory Inc is −3.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tandy Leather Factory Inc is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF)?
The operating margin of Tandy Leather Factory Inc is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF)?
Revenue at Tandy Leather Factory Inc is growing +1.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF)?
Earnings per share at Tandy Leather Factory Inc are growing −98.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF) generate?
The free cash flow of Tandy Leather Factory Inc is −$8.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tandy Leather Factory Inc (TLF) carry?
The net debt of Tandy Leather Factory Inc is $11.3M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 29, 2026