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Tillys Inc (TLYS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tillys Inc stock $1.89, price $4.20, that is 55.0% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Cyclical US

TI Tillys Inc logo Thin data Nov 8, 2026

Tillys Inc

TLYS · US
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 55% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Generates free cash flow over the last twelve months
Profit last quarter +170% vs. a year ago.
Quality 54/100
Thin margins · 0.3% net margin (TTM)
Insiders bought $20,100 (6M) · sold $59,288
Fair value $1.89 · Strongly overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.8 %/yr in USD)
Trails peers (4/13)
Narrow moat 19/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$16.44 $0.6900 Fair Value $1.89 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.6900 – $16.44 · fair‑value band $1.41 – $2.83 · the $4.20 price screens above the $1.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Tilly's, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men and women, boys, and girls in the United States.

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Its apparel merchandise comprising branded, fashion, and styles for tops, outerwear, bottoms, swim and dresses; and accessories merchandise consist of backpacks, hydration bottles, hats, sunglasses, handbags, watches, jewelry, and others.

The company also provides third-party merchandise assortment across its various product categories. It sells its merchandise through its stores and e-commerce website, www.tillys.com. Tilly's, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

Stock analysis

Tillys Inc (TLYS) currently trades at $4.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.89, 55% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $1.41 (bear) to $2.83 (bull), the price of $4.20 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.

Tillys Inc reported revenue of $554M in FY2026 versus $776M in FY2022, a compound −8.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$17.5M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $144M Micro · P/E ratio 78.3 · P/S ratio 0.25 · EPS (TTM) $0.0600 · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity 2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 5.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 19 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 256% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −55%, TLYS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.41 Fair Value $1.89 Bull $2.83
Price $4.20 · Downside -55.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0418 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $1.41 $1.89 $2.83 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.41 $1.89 $2.83 52

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 39
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 78
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 11
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 52
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 62
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 85
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 81
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $20,100, on Sep 21, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $59,288.

  • BuyMichael HenryCFO5,000 shares at $4.02$20,100Sep 21, 2026
  • SaleFund 1 Investments, LLC10% owner2,256,335 shares at $4.46$10.1MSep 8, 2026
  • SaleMichael Joseph CingolaniChief Merchandising Officer11,250 shares at $5.27$59,288Jun 11, 2026
  • SaleShay Capital LLC10% owner2× since Mar 12, 2026: 1,045,000 shares, avg. $2.57$2.7MMar 20, 2026

Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 21/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.0% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−0.6% (2021) → −3.5% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

TLYS screens overvalued: fair value 55% below the price. Compare with Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Apparel Retail · 101 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside −55.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 2.3% · Below median
Return on assets −5.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 0.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 5.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 8.1% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 78.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.69× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 0.25× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 8.6× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.88× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 54
FUTURE (revenue growth)41 · sector 14
PAST (return on equity)9 · sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 100
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 59

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
lululemon athletica inc., LULU $110.79 $307.70 +178% vs TLYS
Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A ITX €59.04 €64.94 +10% vs TLYS
Aritzia Inc ATZ C$155.00 C$170.50 +10% vs TLYS
The Gap, Inc GAP $21.48 $20.67 −4% vs TLYS
Fast Retailing Co 6288 HK$39.08 HK$32.03 −18% vs TLYS
The TJX Companies, Inc TJX $135.30 $85.31 −37% vs TLYS
Burlington Stores, Inc BURL $246.76 $150.41 −39% vs TLYS
Ross Stores, Inc ROST $231.09 $118.41 −49% vs TLYS
Trent Limited TRENT ₹3,079 ₹1,277 −59% vs TLYS
Victoria's Secret & Co VSXY $108.05 $34.31 −68% vs TLYS

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Tillys Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tillys Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TLYS

Frequently asked questions

Is Tillys Inc (TLYS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.89 versus a price of $4.20, about 55% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TLYS?
Our model-based fair value for Tillys Inc is $1.89 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.20.
What is the quality score of TLYS?
Tillys Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.89 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.41, optimistic scenario $2.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tillys Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.89, about 55% lower versus a price of $4.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.41, optimistic scenario $2.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
Tillys Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $583M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tillys Inc it is $1.89 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $4.20. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Tillys Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, TLYS trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.20, fair value $1.89, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TLYS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.89). For Tillys Inc the two are $2.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tillys Inc worth?
The market values Tillys Inc at about $144M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $4.20; our models calculate a fair value of $1.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TLYS?
Our models span a range for Tillys Inc: cautious scenario $1.41, base $1.89, optimistic $2.83 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $4.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TLYS?
Tillys Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 78.3 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.89 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2017 to 2023), reported earnings: 20.1. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 1.7, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 8.6.
What is the PEG ratio of TLYS?
The PEG ratio of Tillys Inc is 0.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tillys Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 2.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TLYS from its 52-week high?
Tillys Inc trades at $4.20, about 23% below its 52-week high of $5.45 and 256% above the low of $1.18 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tillys Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A, The TJX Companies, Inc, Fast Retailing Co, Ross Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tillys Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $4.20, calculated fair value $1.89 (−55%), Quality Score 54/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TLYS calculated?
We run Tillys Inc through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $1.89 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Tillys Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $4.20. Our model-based fair value is $1.89, about 55% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tillys Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($1.41 to $2.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Tillys Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
The market capitalisation of Tillys Inc is $144M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tillys Inc is 0.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
Earnings per share at Tillys Inc are $0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 78.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
The net margin of Tillys Inc is 0.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tillys Inc is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tillys Inc is −1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
The operating margin of Tillys Inc is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
Revenue at Tillys Inc is growing +8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
Earnings per share at Tillys Inc are growing +170% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tillys Inc (TLYS) generate?
The free cash flow of Tillys Inc is −$589K (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tillys Inc (TLYS) carry?
The net debt of Tillys Inc is $124M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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