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Tillys Inc (TLYS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Tillys Inc $1.89, price $4.13, upside -54.2%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · US · ISIN US8868851028

TI Tillys Inc logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Tillys Inc

TLYS · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $1.89 · Strongly overvalued (−54%)
!Quality 55/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.3% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
!Narrow moat 21/100
!Insider activity 35/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 9 out of 100
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$16.44 $0.6900 Fair Value $1.89 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.6900 – $16.44 · fair‑value band $1.41 – $2.83 · the $4.13 price screens above the $1.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Tilly's, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men and women, boys, and girls in the United States.

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Tilly's, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men and women, boys, and girls in the United States. Its apparel merchandise comprising branded, fashion, and styles for tops, outerwear, bottoms, swim and dresses; and accessories merchandise consist of backpacks, hydration bottles, hats, sunglasses, handbags, watches, jewelry, and others. The company also provides third-party merchandise assortment across its various product categories. It sells its merchandise through its stores and e-commerce website, www.tillys.com. Tilly's, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

Stock analysis

Tillys Inc (TLYS) currently trades at $4.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.89, implying the stock looks roughly 118.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $1.41 (bear) to $2.83 (bull), the price of $4.13 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.

Tillys Inc reported revenue of $554M in FY2026 versus $776M in FY2022, a compound −8.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$17.5M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $124M · P/E ratio 69.0 · P/S ratio 0.22 · EPS (TTM) $0.0600 · Net margin −3.2% · Return on equity 2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.5% · Operating margin 5.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 250% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −54%, TLYS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.41 Fair Value $1.89 Bull $2.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0344 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $1.41 $1.89 $2.83 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.41 $1.89 $2.83 52

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 78
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 11
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 60
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 85
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 21/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.0% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−0.6% (2021) → −3.5% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

TLYS screens 119% overvalued. Compare with Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Apparel Retail · 105 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside −54% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 8% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 69.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.46× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.21× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 6.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.88× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)41 · sector 12
PAST (return on equity)9 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 100
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A ITX €52.90 €58.19 +10%
The TJX Companies, Inc TJX $131.59 $84.95 −35%
Fast Retailing Co 6288 HK$33.84 HK$30.74 −9%
Ross Stores, Inc ROST $233.98 $118.41 −49%
Burlington Stores, Inc BURL $256.85 $149.57 −42%
Trent Limited TRENT ₹2,774 ₹709.49 −74%
lululemon athletica inc., LULU $102.28 $299.63 +193%
Aritzia Inc ATZ C$125.27 C$137.80 +10%
The Gap, Inc GAP $21.46 $36.67 +71%
Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN $75.02 $93.78 +25%

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Tillys Inc · Fair Value
$1.89 −119%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tillys Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TLYS

Frequently asked questions

Is Tillys Inc (TLYS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.89 versus a price of $4.13, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TLYS?
Our model-based fair value for Tillys Inc is $1.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.13.
What is the quality score of TLYS?
Tillys Inc has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.41, optimistic scenario $2.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tillys Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.89, about −54% upside versus a price of $4.13 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.41, optimistic scenario $2.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
Tillys Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $583M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tillys Inc it is $1.89 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $4.13. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tillys Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TLYS trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.13, fair value $1.89, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TLYS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.89). For Tillys Inc the two are $2.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tillys Inc worth?
The market values Tillys Inc at about $124M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $4.13; our models calculate a fair value of $1.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TLYS?
Our models span a range for Tillys Inc: cautious scenario $1.41, base $1.89, optimistic $2.83 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $4.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TLYS?
Tillys Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 69.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.89 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 1.5, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 6.9.
What is the PEG ratio of TLYS?
The PEG ratio of Tillys Inc is 0.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tillys Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 2.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TLYS from its 52-week high?
Tillys Inc trades at $4.13, about 24% below its 52-week high of $5.45 and 250% above the low of $1.18 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tillys Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A, The TJX Companies, Inc, Fast Retailing Co, Ross Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tillys Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $4.13, calculated fair value $1.89 (−54%), Quality Score 55/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TLYS calculated?
We run Tillys Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Tillys Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $4.13. Our model-based fair value is $1.89, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tillys Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($1.41 to $2.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Tillys Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
The market capitalisation of Tillys Inc is $124M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tillys Inc is 0.22 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
Earnings per share at Tillys Inc are $0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 69.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
The net margin of Tillys Inc is −3.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tillys Inc is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tillys Inc is −1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
The operating margin of Tillys Inc is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
Revenue at Tillys Inc is growing +8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tillys Inc (TLYS)?
Earnings per share at Tillys Inc are growing +170% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tillys Inc (TLYS) generate?
The free cash flow of Tillys Inc is −$589K (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tillys Inc (TLYS) carry?
The net debt of Tillys Inc is $124M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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