Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Thermal Energy International Inc. stock C$0.27, price C$0.14, upside +89.5%, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?Yes
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.0800 – C$0.3500 · fair‑value band C$0.1600 – C$0.3500 · the C$0.1425 price screens below the C$0.2700 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
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Thermal Energy International Inc. engages in the development, engineering, and supply of pollution control, heat recovery systems, and condensate return solutions in North America, Europe, and internationally.
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The company offers GEM steam traps; FLUACE-ACE heat recovery, a direct contact condensing heat recovery system that recycles the heat lost through the boiler flue gas exhaust; and DRY-REX biomass dryer, a low temperature biomass dryer.
It also provides boiler feedwater economizer, vent condenser, boiler blowdown heat recovery, heat recovery steam generator, indirect contact condensing heat recovery, and air to air heat exchange.
The company serves its products to food and beverage, pulp and paper, hospital, pharmaceutical, chemicals and petrochemicals, and other industry sectors. Thermal Energy International Inc. was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Ottawa, Canada.
Stock analysis
Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG) currently trades at C$0.1425, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.2700, implying the stock looks roughly 47.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$0.3200 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the C$0.1425 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at C$0.0800, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: C$0.1600 (bear) to C$0.3500 (bull), the price of C$0.1425 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Thermal Energy International Inc. reported revenue of C$33.6M in FY2026 versus C$15.9M in FY2022, a compound +20.5%/yr. Reported net income was C$1.2M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap C$24.4M (≈ $17.4M) Micro · P/E ratio 14.3 · P/S ratio 0.52 · EPS (TTM) C$0.0100 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 3.7% · Return on equity 30.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at 89%, TMG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$0.1600Fair Value C$0.2700BullC$0.3500
Price C$0.1425 · Upside +89.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 5 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.0040 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFC$0.2100C$0.3400C$0.740075
EPVC$0.0900C$0.1100C$0.120074
Growth DCFC$0.2000C$0.3800C$0.760074
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFC$0.2100C$0.3400C$0.740075
Owner EarningsC$0.1800C$0.3900C$0.870070
5Y Revenue ExitC$0.1300C$0.2000C$0.360070
5Y EBITDA ExitC$0.1600C$0.2600C$0.450073
5Y P/E ExitC$0.1600C$0.3200C$0.530068
10Y Revenue ExitC$0.1500C$0.2900C$0.370067
10Y EBITDA ExitC$0.1800C$0.3500C$0.650065
10Y P/E ExitC$0.1800C$0.3500C$0.640061
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddC$0.0500C$0.3500C$0.490063
Lynch FVC$0.1500C$0.2200C$0.280061
PEG = 1.0C$0.1500C$0.2200C$0.280057
EPVC$0.0900C$0.1100C$0.120074
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMn/aC$0.0100C$0.010067
DDM Multi-Stagen/aC$0.0100C$0.010065
Multiples
P/E MultipleC$0.1100C$0.1500C$0.190063
P/S MultipleC$0.0900C$0.1200C$0.150058
P/B MultipleC$0.0900C$0.1200C$0.150055
EV/EBITC$0.1100C$0.1500C$0.180066
EV/EBITDAC$0.1200C$0.1600C$0.200067
EV/RevenueC$0.0800C$0.1100C$0.150053
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)C$0.0100C$0.0100C$0.010055
Growth DCF
Growth DCFC$0.2000C$0.3800C$0.760074
Rev-Margin DCFC$0.1400C$0.2300C$0.420070
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeC$0.0500C$0.0800C$0.200068
ROIC CompounderC$0.1100C$0.1500C$0.200071
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EC$0.1900C$0.2700C$0.350067
P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.5% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +32.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+32.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.43.6% vs 13.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 69% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.6% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Pollution & Treatment Controls · 85 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thermal Energy International Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TMG
Frequently asked questions
Is Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$0.2700 versus a price of C$0.1425, about +89% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TMG?
Our model-based fair value for Thermal Energy International Inc. is C$0.2700 (as of Oct 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$0.1425.
What is the quality score of TMG?
Thermal Energy International Inc. has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$0.2700 (as of Oct 25, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$0.1600, optimistic scenario C$0.3500. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thermal Energy International Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$0.2700, about +89% upside versus a price of C$0.1425 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$0.1600, optimistic scenario C$0.3500. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG)?
Thermal Energy International Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$33.6M (latest available figure, as of Oct 25, 2026).
Does Thermal Energy International Inc. pay a dividend?
Thermal Energy International Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.23% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 25, 2026).
What growth is priced into Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Thermal Energy International Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -2.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.9 % per year. As of Oct 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TMG use?
Our models discount Thermal Energy International Inc. at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.04, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Thermal Energy International Inc. that is -2.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Thermal Energy International Inc. grew +16.9 % a year. The price currently implies -2.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Thermal Energy International Inc. (-2.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.12 %: that much free cash flow Thermal Energy International Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thermal Energy International Inc. it is C$0.2700 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026), against a price of C$0.1425. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Thermal Energy International Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 25, 2026, TMG trades below its calculated fair value: price C$0.1425, fair value C$0.2700, a gap of about +89% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TMG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$0.1425); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$0.2700). For Thermal Energy International Inc. the two are C$0.1275 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thermal Energy International Inc. worth?
The market values Thermal Energy International Inc. at about C$24.4M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 25, 2026). Per share that is C$0.1425; our models calculate a fair value of C$0.2700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TMG?
Our models span a range for Thermal Energy International Inc.: cautious scenario C$0.1600, base C$0.2700, optimistic C$0.3500 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026, price C$0.1425). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TMG?
Thermal Energy International Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3 (as of Oct 25, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$0.2700 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.4, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 8.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Thermal Energy International Inc. (as of Oct 25, 2026): return on equity 30.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TMG from its 52-week high?
Thermal Energy International Inc. trades at C$0.1425, about 29% below its 52-week high of C$0.2000 and 19% above the low of C$0.1200 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$0.2700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thermal Energy International Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Veralto Corporation, Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation, Fujian Longking Co, CECO Environmental Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thermal Energy International Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 25, 2026: price C$0.1425, calculated fair value C$0.2700 (+89%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TMG calculated?
We run Thermal Energy International Inc. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$0.2700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Thermal Energy International Inc. currently trades 47 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was C$0.1425. Our model-based fair value is C$0.2700, about +89% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thermal Energy International Inc. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$0.1600). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (C$0.1600 to C$0.3500) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG) come from?
Earnings per share at Thermal Energy International Inc. grew +2.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.3 %, EBIT margin +0.8 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Thermal Energy International Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG)?
The market capitalisation of Thermal Energy International Inc. is C$24.4M (≈ $17.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thermal Energy International Inc. is 0.52 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG)?
Earnings per share at Thermal Energy International Inc. are C$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG)?
The dividend yield of Thermal Energy International Inc. is 0.2% (payout 3.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG)?
The net margin of Thermal Energy International Inc. is 3.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thermal Energy International Inc. is 30.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thermal Energy International Inc. is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG)?
The operating margin of Thermal Energy International Inc. is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG)?
Revenue at Thermal Energy International Inc. is growing +3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG)?
Earnings per share at Thermal Energy International Inc. are growing +57.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Thermal Energy International Inc. (TMG) hold?
Thermal Energy International Inc. holds more cash than debt, C$1.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 25, 2026