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Tonies SE (TNIE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Tonies SE €2.78, price €11.50, upside -75.8%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Cyclical · DE · ISIN LU2333563281

TS Some data Sep 24, 2026

Tonies SE

TNIE · XETRA

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value €2.78 · Strongly overvalued (−76%)
!Quality 49/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +36.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.1% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/12)
!Narrow moat 34/100
!Insider activity 45/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 15 out of 100
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Company profile

tonies SE, through its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and distributes digital, cloud based, and interactive audio platform and entertainment system for children in Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and internationally.

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tonies SE, through its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and distributes digital, cloud based, and interactive audio platform and entertainment system for children in Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and internationally. It provides Toniebox, a speaker box that enables children to listen to stories and music, as well as various figurines under the Tonies brand name. The company also offers accessories and digital products, such as headphones, transport solutions, and decoration products. It distributes its products through various online and offline distribution channels, including brick-and-mortar retail partner stores, retail partner online channels, its own online shop, and Amazon marketplace. The company was formerly known as 468 SPAC I SE. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.

Stock analysis

Tonies SE (TNIE) currently trades at €11.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.78, implying the stock looks roughly 313.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €7.82 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the €11.50 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €2.08, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: €2.51 (bear) to €3.15 (bull), the price of €11.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Tonies SE reported revenue of €630M in FY2025 versus €188M in FY2021, a compound +35.3%/yr. Reported net income was €13.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €1.5B · P/E ratio 47.0 · P/S ratio 0.98 · EPS (TTM) €0.2300 · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 3.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −14.0% · Operating margin 7.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 46% fair-value upside, at −76%, TNIE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €2.51 Fair Value €2.78 Bull €3.15
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0732 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV €2.42 €2.66 €2.86 74
Owner Earnings €4.13 €7.82 €14.66 73
ROIC Compounder €2.42 €2.66 €2.86 72
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings €4.13 €7.82 €14.66 73
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €0.7800 €5.44 €7.63 63
Lynch FV €2.76 €3.94 €5.12 61
PEG = 1.0 €2.76 €3.94 €5.12 57
EPV €2.42 €2.66 €2.86 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple €1.89 €2.52 €3.15 63
P/S Multiple €1.46 €1.95 €2.44 58
P/B Multiple €1.46 €1.95 €2.44 55
EV/EBIT €3.99 €5.09 €6.20 66
EV/EBITDA €4.50 €5.77 €7.04 67
EV/Revenue €2.92 €3.87 €4.83 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €1.56 €2.09 €3.12 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income €2.16 €2.08 €1.69 71
ROIC Compounder €2.42 €2.66 €2.86 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €3.67 €5.25 €6.82 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 80
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 79
Calm price path (market factor)
Net Issuance 38
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+31.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−13.5% (2020) → 4.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

TNIE screens 313% overvalued. Compare with Pop Mart International Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 188 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside −76% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 36% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.03× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 47.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B 4.79× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 2.71× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 38.7× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 44
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 14
PAST (return on equity)15 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 57

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Pop Mart International Group 9992 HK$154.20 HK$227.30 +47%
Amer Sports, Inc AS $27.65 $19.17 −31%
Hasbro, Inc HAS $86.91 $85.71 −1%
Life Time Group LTH $38.19 $15.61 −59%
Acushnet Holdings GOLF $83.20 $42.95 −48%
Ninebot Limited 689009 ¥37.91 ¥111.19 +193%
Li Ning Company 2331 HK$12.36 HK$29.61 +140%
Mattel, Inc MAT $13.21 $21.24 +61%
Planet Fitness, Inc PLNT $42.60 $62.04 +46%
Technogym S.p.A TGYM €12.92 €14.21 +10%

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Tonies SE · Fair Value
€2.78 −313%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tonies SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TNIE

Frequently asked questions

Is Tonies SE (TNIE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €2.78 versus a price of €11.50, about −76% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TNIE?
Our model-based fair value for Tonies SE is €2.78 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €11.50.
What is the quality score of TNIE?
Tonies SE has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tonies SE (TNIE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €2.78 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.51, optimistic scenario €3.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tonies SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €2.78, about −76% upside versus a price of €11.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.51, optimistic scenario €3.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tonies SE (TNIE)?
Tonies SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €630M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tonies SE (TNIE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tonies SE it is €2.78 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €11.50. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tonies SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TNIE trades above its calculated fair value: price €11.50, fair value €2.78, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TNIE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€11.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€2.78). For Tonies SE the two are €8.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tonies SE worth?
The market values Tonies SE at about €1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €11.50; our models calculate a fair value of €2.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TNIE?
Our models span a range for Tonies SE: cautious scenario €2.51, base €2.78, optimistic €3.15 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €11.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TNIE?
Tonies SE trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 47.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €2.78 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.8, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 38.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tonies SE (TNIE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tonies SE (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.7%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Tonies SE?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, Life Time Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tonies SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €11.50, calculated fair value €2.78 (−76%), Quality Score 49/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TNIE calculated?
We run Tonies SE through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €2.78, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Tonies SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tonies SE (TNIE)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €11.50. Our model-based fair value is €2.78, about −76% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tonies SE right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€3.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Tonies SE

How large is the market capitalisation of Tonies SE (TNIE)?
The market capitalisation of Tonies SE is €1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tonies SE (TNIE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tonies SE is 0.98 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tonies SE (TNIE)?
Earnings per share at Tonies SE are €0.2300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 47.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tonies SE (TNIE)?
The net margin of Tonies SE is 2.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tonies SE (TNIE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tonies SE is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tonies SE (TNIE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tonies SE is −14.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tonies SE (TNIE)?
The operating margin of Tonies SE is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tonies SE (TNIE)?
Revenue at Tonies SE is growing +35.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +34.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tonies SE (TNIE)?
Earnings per share at Tonies SE are growing −51.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tonies SE (TNIE) generate?
The free cash flow of Tonies SE is −€1.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tonies SE (TNIE) hold?
Tonies SE holds more cash than debt, €51.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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