tonies SE (TNIE) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · DE · Market cap €1.4B
Fair value as of: Aug 10, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated today
Below-average quality, and screening another 76% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€3.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Analysis
tonies SE (TNIE) currently trades at €11.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.78, implying the stock looks roughly 75.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, tonies SE generated revenue of €630M at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 35.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €51.0M. Fundamentals as of Aug 10, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €1.94 (bear case) to €3.15 (bull case); at €11.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 107% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -76%, TNIE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€7.00) versus Economic Profit (€2.08). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 10, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
tonies SE, through its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and distributes digital, cloud based, and interactive audio platform and entertainment system for children in Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and internationally.
Full company description
tonies SE, through its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and distributes digital, cloud based, and interactive audio platform and entertainment system for children in Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and internationally. It provides Toniebox, a speaker box that enables children to listen to stories and music, as well as various figurines under the Tonies brand name. The company also offers accessories and digital products, such as headphones, transport solutions, and decoration products. It distributes its products through various online and offline distribution channels, including brick-and-mortar retail partner stores, retail partner online channels, its own online shop, and Amazon marketplace. The company was formerly known as 468 SPAC I SE. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
tonies SE reported revenue of €630M in FY2025 versus €188M in FY2021, a compound +35.3%/yr. Reported net income was €13.1M in FY2025.
TNIE screens 76% overvalued. Compare with ANTA Sports Products Limited →
Peer Group
Leisure · 192 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 10, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$74.15 | HK$119.29 | +61% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$160.20 | HK$227.30 | +42% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $36.44 | $16.16 | -56% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $81.55 | $83.38 | +2% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $42.15 | $16.15 | -62% |
| Acushnet Holdings GOLF | $114.78 | $37.79 | -67% |
| Li Ning Company 2331 | HK$14.80 | HK$29.26 | +98% |
| Benefit Systems S.A BFT | 5,255 PLN | 3,714 PLN | -29% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥37.82 | ¥39.17 | +4% |
| Asmodee Group ASMDEEB | kr 145.70 | kr 41.90 | -71% |
Compare tonies SE with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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