Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TOKSF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. $13.90, price $9.11, upside +52.6%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.97 – $10.78 · fair‑value band $12.65 – $18.95 · the $9.11 price screens below the $13.90 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells various steel products in Japan, Europe, Asia, and internationally.
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Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells various steel products in Japan, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company offers steel building materials, such as H-beams, high-standard electric furnace H-beam, special size H-beam (tuned-H), striped H-beams, grooved steel, I-beams, U-shape sheet pile, deformed bars, and cold rolled square steel pipes. It also provides steel plate products, including hot coils, pickling coils, hot-dip galvanized coils, striped coils, cut sheets, and high-standard electric arc furnace steel sheets. Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1934 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TOKSF) currently trades at $9.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.90, implying the stock looks roughly 34.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $17.39 per share, and 11 of the 15 models we run sit above the $9.11 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $4.88, and 4 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $12.65 (bear) to $18.95 (bull), the price of $9.11 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. reported revenue of ¥327B in FY2025 versus ¥141B in FY2021, a compound +23.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥21.2B in FY2025, compounding +37.7%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $949M · P/E ratio 13.0 · P/S ratio 0.84 · EPS (TTM) $0.7000 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 6.5% · Return on equity 5.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at 53%, TOKSF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $12.65Fair Value $13.90Bull $18.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+35.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+32.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 9%
Compare Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 414 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside+53% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.8% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
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Is Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TOKSF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.90 versus a price of $9.11, about +53% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TOKSF?
Our model-based fair value for Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is $13.90 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.11.
What is the quality score of TOKSF?
Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TOKSF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.90 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.65, optimistic scenario $18.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.90, about +53% upside versus a price of $9.11 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $12.65, optimistic scenario $18.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TOKSF)?
Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥268B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. pay a dividend?
Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.75% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TOKSF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. it is $13.90 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $9.11. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TOKSF trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.11, fair value $13.90, a gap of about +53% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOKSF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.90). For Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. the two are $4.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. worth?
The market values Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. at about $949M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $9.11; our models calculate a fair value of $13.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOKSF?
Our models span a range for Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd.: cautious scenario $12.65, base $13.90, optimistic $18.95 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $9.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TOKSF?
Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.90 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 8.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TOKSF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOKSF from its 52-week high?
Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. trades at $9.11, about 9% below its 52-week high of $9.99 and at the low of $9.11 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, Tata Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $9.11, calculated fair value $13.90 (+53%), Quality Score 54/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOKSF calculated?
We run Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. currently trades 53 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TOKSF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $9.11. Our model-based fair value is $13.90, about +53% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($12.65). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TOKSF)?
The market capitalisation of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is $949M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TOKSF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is 0.84 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TOKSF)?
Earnings per share at Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. are $0.7000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TOKSF)?
The dividend yield of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is 2.8% (payout 35.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TOKSF)?
The net margin of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is 6.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TOKSF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TOKSF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is 10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TOKSF)?
The operating margin of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is −1.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TOKSF)?
Revenue at Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is growing −8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TOKSF)?
Earnings per share at Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. are growing −49.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TOKSF) generate?
The free cash flow of Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is −¥2.8B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026