TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of TOMY Company, Ltd. $26.26, price $29.37, upside -10.6%, quality 74 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
22‑month range $28.09 – $29.37 · fair‑value band $18.24 – $34.36 · the $29.37 price screens above the $26.26 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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TOMY Company, Ltd. plans, together with its subsidiaries, plans, manufactures, and sells toys and toy-related products in Japan, Asia, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania.
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TOMY Company, Ltd. plans, together with its subsidiaries, plans, manufactures, and sells toys and toy-related products in Japan, Asia, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company offers various toy products, including cars, miniature cars, trains, dolls, fashion, role-playing items, house play, pretend play, care, plush toys, educational toys, robots, figures, transformation/combination, collectibles, card games, trading card games, battle, game, app games, programming, blocks, edutainment, English, drawing, making toys, communication, party, toy smartphone, toy PCs, eco toys, and accessible-design toys. It also provides general merchandise and baby care products. In addition, the company engages in real estate rental activities. TOMY Company, Ltd. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Katsushika, Japan.
Stock analysis
TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF) currently trades at $29.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.26, implying the stock looks roughly 11.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $30.53 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the $29.37 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.20, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $18.24 (bear) to $34.36 (bull), the price of $29.37 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
TOMY Company, Ltd. reported revenue of ¥250B in FY2025 versus ¥141B in FY2021, a compound +15.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥16.4B in FY2025, compounding +32.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.6B · P/E ratio 26.0 · P/S ratio 1.70 · EPS (TTM) $1.13 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 6.5% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at −11%, TOMYF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $18.24Fair Value $26.26Bull $34.36
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+25.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+24.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 10%
2025 sits 83% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.5% a year for the price and +3.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 185 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−10.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.7% · Above median
Return on assets9.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4.3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)4.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
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Is TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $26.26 versus a price of $29.37, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TOMYF?
Our model-based fair value for TOMY Company, Ltd. is $26.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $29.37.
What is the quality score of TOMYF?
TOMY Company, Ltd. has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $26.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.24, optimistic scenario $34.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TOMY Company, Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $26.26, about −11% upside versus a price of $29.37 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $18.24, optimistic scenario $34.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF)?
TOMY Company, Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥270B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does TOMY Company, Ltd. pay a dividend?
TOMY Company, Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.24% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TOMY Company, Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +18.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +15.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TOMYF use?
Our models discount TOMY Company, Ltd. at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.24, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TOMY Company, Ltd. that is +18.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at TOMY Company, Ltd. grew +15.4 % a year. The price currently implies +18.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TOMY Company, Ltd. (+18.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.19 %: that much free cash flow TOMY Company, Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TOMY Company, Ltd. it is $26.26 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $29.37. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TOMY Company, Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TOMYF trades above its calculated fair value: price $29.37, fair value $26.26, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOMYF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($29.37); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($26.26). For TOMY Company, Ltd. the two are $3.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TOMY Company, Ltd. worth?
The market values TOMY Company, Ltd. at about $2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $29.37; our models calculate a fair value of $26.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOMYF?
Our models span a range for TOMY Company, Ltd.: cautious scenario $18.24, base $26.26, optimistic $34.36 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $29.37). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TOMYF?
TOMY Company, Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $26.26 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.9, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 10.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF)?
Balance-sheet figures for TOMY Company, Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOMYF from its 52-week high?
TOMY Company, Ltd. trades at $29.37, at its 52-week high of $29.37 and 3% above the low of $28.54 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $26.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TOMY Company, Ltd.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, ANTA Sports Products Limited, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TOMY Company, Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $29.37, calculated fair value $26.26 (−11%), Quality Score 74/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOMYF calculated?
We run TOMY Company, Ltd. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $26.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. TOMY Company, Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $29.37. Our model-based fair value is $26.26, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TOMY Company, Ltd. right now?
A fairly wide model range ($18.24 to $34.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of TOMY Company, Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF)?
The market capitalisation of TOMY Company, Ltd. is $2.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TOMY Company, Ltd. is 1.70 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF)?
Earnings per share at TOMY Company, Ltd. are $1.13 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF)?
The dividend yield of TOMY Company, Ltd. is 1.2% (payout 32.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF)?
The net margin of TOMY Company, Ltd. is 6.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TOMY Company, Ltd. is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TOMY Company, Ltd. is 9.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF)?
The operating margin of TOMY Company, Ltd. is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF)?
Revenue at TOMY Company, Ltd. is growing +11.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TOMY Company, Ltd. (TOMYF)?
Earnings per share at TOMY Company, Ltd. are growing +12.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026