TOMY Company (TOMYF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $2.5B
TOMY Company
TOMYF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
A solid business, but screening 20% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- A fairly wide model range ($17.62 to $32.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (20 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
20‑month range $28.09 – $29.37 · fair‑value band $17.62 – $32.22 · the $29.37 price screens above the $23.49 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
TOMY Company (TOMYF) currently trades at $29.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.49, implying the stock looks roughly 20.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, TOMY Company generated revenue of $270B at a net margin of 4.3%. Revenue grew 11.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.7%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 26.0. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $17.62 (bear case) to $32.22 (bull case); at $29.37, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -20%, TOMYF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($31.55) versus Asset-Based ($5.12). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
TOMY Company, Ltd. plans, together with its subsidiaries, plans, manufactures, and sells toys and toy-related products in Japan, Asia, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania.
Full company description
TOMY Company, Ltd. plans, together with its subsidiaries, plans, manufactures, and sells toys and toy-related products in Japan, Asia, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company offers various toy products, including cars, miniature cars, trains, dolls, fashion, role-playing items, house play, pretend play, care, plush toys, educational toys, robots, figures, transformation/combination, collectibles, card games, trading card games, battle, game, app games, programming, blocks, edutainment, English, drawing, making toys, communication, party, toy smartphone, toy PCs, eco toys, and accessible-design toys. It also provides general merchandise and baby care products. In addition, the company engages in real estate rental activities. TOMY Company, Ltd. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Katsushika, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TOMY Company reported revenue of $250B in FY2025 versus $141B in FY2021, a compound +15.4%/yr. Reported net income was $16.4B in FY2025, compounding +32.1%/yr from FY2021.
TOMYF screens 20% overvalued. Compare with ANTA Sports Products Limited →
Peer Group
Leisure · 192 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$74.15 | HK$119.29 | +61% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$160.20 | HK$227.30 | +42% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $36.44 | $16.16 | -56% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $81.55 | $83.38 | +2% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $42.15 | $16.15 | -62% |
| Acushnet Holdings GOLF | $114.78 | $37.79 | -67% |
| Li Ning Company 2331 | HK$14.80 | HK$29.26 | +98% |
| Benefit Systems S.A BFT | 5,255 PLN | 3,714 PLN | -29% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥37.82 | ¥39.17 | +4% |
| Asmodee Group ASMDEEB | kr 145.70 | kr 41.90 | -71% |
Compare TOMY Company with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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