TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of TOMY Company Ltd $20.08, price $28.95, upside -30.6%, quality 75 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.97 – $29.15 · fair‑value band $15.06 – $25.10 · the $28.95 price screens above the $20.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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TOMY Company, Ltd. plans, together with its subsidiaries, plans, manufactures, and sells toys and toy-related products in Japan, Asia, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania.
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TOMY Company, Ltd. plans, together with its subsidiaries, plans, manufactures, and sells toys and toy-related products in Japan, Asia, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company offers various toy products, including cars, miniature cars, trains, dolls, fashion, role-playing items, house play, pretend play, care, plush toys, educational toys, robots, figures, transformation/combination, collectibles, card games, trading card games, battle, game, app games, programming, blocks, edutainment, English, drawing, making toys, communication, party, toy smartphone, toy PCs, eco toys, and accessible-design toys. It also provides general merchandise and baby care products. In addition, the company engages in real estate rental activities. TOMY Company, Ltd. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Katsushika, Japan.
Stock analysis
TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY) currently trades at $28.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.08, implying the stock looks roughly 44.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $23.99 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the $28.95 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $4.94, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $15.06 (bear) to $25.10 (bull), the price of $28.95 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
TOMY Company Ltd reported revenue of ¥287B in FY2026 versus ¥165B in FY2022, a compound +14.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥12.4B in FY2026, compounding +8.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $2.6B · P/E ratio 24.5 · P/S ratio 1.06 · EPS (TTM) $1.18 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 4.3% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at −31%, TOMYY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $15.06Fair Value $20.08Bull $25.10
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.8% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+20.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.5% vs 8.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.8% a year for the price and +1.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 187 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−30.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.7% · Above median
Return on assets9.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4.3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)4.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)24.5× · Pricier than median
P/B3.63× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.50× · Pricier than median
P/FCF26.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA10.6× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 38
FUTURE (revenue growth)60· sector 18
PAST (return on equity)43· sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)26· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TOMY Company Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TOMYY
Frequently asked questions
Is TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.08 versus a price of $28.95, about −31% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TOMYY?
Our model-based fair value for TOMY Company Ltd is $20.08 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $28.95.
What is the quality score of TOMYY?
TOMY Company Ltd has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.08 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.06, optimistic scenario $25.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TOMY Company Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.08, about −31% upside versus a price of $28.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $15.06, optimistic scenario $25.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY)?
TOMY Company Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥270B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does TOMY Company Ltd pay a dividend?
TOMY Company Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.32% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TOMY Company Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +9.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.2 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TOMYY use?
Our models discount TOMY Company Ltd at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.24, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TOMY Company Ltd that is +9.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at TOMY Company Ltd grew +15.2 % a year. The price currently implies +9.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TOMY Company Ltd (+9.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.79 %: that much free cash flow TOMY Company Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TOMY Company Ltd it is $20.08 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $28.95. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TOMY Company Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, TOMYY trades above its calculated fair value: price $28.95, fair value $20.08, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOMYY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($28.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.08). For TOMY Company Ltd the two are $8.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TOMY Company Ltd worth?
The market values TOMY Company Ltd at about $2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $28.95; our models calculate a fair value of $20.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOMYY?
Our models span a range for TOMY Company Ltd: cautious scenario $15.06, base $20.08, optimistic $25.10 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $28.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TOMYY?
TOMY Company Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $20.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.6, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 10.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY)?
Balance-sheet figures for TOMY Company Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 10.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOMYY from its 52-week high?
TOMY Company Ltd trades at $28.95, about 1% below its 52-week high of $29.15 and at the low of $28.83 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TOMY Company Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, ANTA Sports Products Limited, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TOMY Company Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $28.95, calculated fair value $20.08 (−31%), Quality Score 75/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOMYY calculated?
We run TOMY Company Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $20.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. TOMY Company Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was $28.95. Our model-based fair value is $20.08, about −31% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TOMY Company Ltd right now?
A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($25.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Key figures of TOMY Company Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY)?
The market capitalisation of TOMY Company Ltd is $2.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TOMY Company Ltd is 1.06 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY)?
Earnings per share at TOMY Company Ltd are $1.18 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY)?
The dividend yield of TOMY Company Ltd is 1.3% (payout 32.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY)?
The net margin of TOMY Company Ltd is 4.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TOMY Company Ltd is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TOMY Company Ltd is 11.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY)?
The operating margin of TOMY Company Ltd is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY)?
Revenue at TOMY Company Ltd is growing +11.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY)?
Earnings per share at TOMY Company Ltd are growing +12.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does TOMY Company Ltd (TOMYY) hold?
TOMY Company Ltd holds more cash than debt, ¥43.8B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 27, 2026