TradeDoubler AB (TRAD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Aug 13, 2026: fair value of TradeDoubler AB SEK 11.63, price SEK 6.08, upside +91.3%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch TradeDoubler AB for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 3.30 – kr 8.22 · fair‑value band kr 8.79 – kr 15.17 · the kr 6.08 price screens below the kr 11.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow TradeDoubler in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether TradeDoubler is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
TradeDoubler AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides performance marketing and technology solutions for publishers and advertisers in Europe. The company offers affiliate marketing network solutions; white-label partner management platform to manage and run affiliate networks; campaign management solutions; and business intelligence solutions.
Show more
TradeDoubler AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides performance marketing and technology solutions for publishers and advertisers in Europe. The company offers affiliate marketing network solutions; white-label partner management platform to manage and run affiliate networks; campaign management solutions; and business intelligence solutions. It also provides influencer marketing; mobile marketing to engage customers via mobile devices; app marketing; lead generation campaigns; partner marketing; and e-mail marketing solutions. In addition, the company offers C2C display advertising that promotes products and services to customers through e-commerce marketplaces and social media; CTV marketing that targets audiences via internet-connected TVs, smart TVs, and streaming services; and Metapic, an influencer network platform. It serves ecommerce companies, brands, agencies, and digital platforms. The company also operates in Germany, Switzerland, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Poland, Italy, Brazil, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Ireland. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden. Tradedoubler AB (publ) is a subsidiary of Reworld Media Société Anonyme.
Stock analysis
TradeDoubler AB (TRAD) currently trades at kr 6.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 11.63, implying the stock looks roughly 47.7% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of kr 19.35 per share, and 15 of the 23 models we run sit above the kr 6.08 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at kr 3.74, and 8 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 8.79 (bear) to kr 15.17 (bull), the price of kr 6.08 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
TradeDoubler AB reported revenue of 2.2B SEK in FY2025 versus 1.4B SEK in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.0M SEK in FY2025, compounding −54.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 368M SEK (≈ $36.6M) · P/S ratio 0.17 · EPS (TTM) kr −0.2600 · Net margin 0.0% · Return on equity −4.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% · Operating margin 0.1% · Revenue (TTM) 2.2B SEK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 23% fair-value upside, at 91%, TRAD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 8.79Fair Value kr 11.63Bull kr 15.17
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.2% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+10.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 3%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−31.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −33.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Advertising Agencies · 190 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside+91.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−0.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−0.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.10× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TradeDoubler AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TRAD
Frequently asked questions
Is TradeDoubler AB (TRAD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 11.63 versus the last price from Aug 13, 2026 of kr 6.08, about +91% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TRAD?
Our model-based fair value for TradeDoubler AB is kr 11.63 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 13, 2026): kr 6.08.
What is the quality score of TRAD?
TradeDoubler AB has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TradeDoubler AB (TRAD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 11.63 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 8.79, optimistic scenario kr 15.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TradeDoubler AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 11.63, about +91% upside versus the last price from Aug 13, 2026 of kr 6.08 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 8.79, optimistic scenario kr 15.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TradeDoubler AB (TRAD)?
TradeDoubler AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.2B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into TradeDoubler AB (TRAD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TradeDoubler AB would have to grow free cash flow by -31.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TRAD use?
Our models discount TradeDoubler AB at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.63, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TradeDoubler AB that is -31.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TradeDoubler AB (TRAD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at TradeDoubler AB grew +12.4 % a year. The price currently implies -31.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TradeDoubler AB (TRAD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TradeDoubler AB (-31.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TradeDoubler AB (TRAD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 32.84 %: that much free cash flow TradeDoubler AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TradeDoubler AB (TRAD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TradeDoubler AB it is kr 11.63 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 6.08. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TradeDoubler AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TRAD trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 6.08, fair value kr 11.63, a gap of about +91% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TRAD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 6.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 11.63). For TradeDoubler AB the two are kr 5.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TradeDoubler AB worth?
The market values TradeDoubler AB at about 368M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 6.08; our models calculate a fair value of kr 11.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRAD?
Our models span a range for TradeDoubler AB: cautious scenario kr 8.79, base kr 11.63, optimistic kr 15.17 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 6.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of TRAD?
The PEG ratio of TradeDoubler AB is 1.87 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of TradeDoubler AB (TRAD)?
Balance-sheet figures for TradeDoubler AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −4.1%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TRAD from its 52-week high?
TradeDoubler AB trades at kr 6.08, about 25% below its 52-week high of kr 8.08 and 7% above the low of kr 5.70 (as of Aug 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 11.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TradeDoubler AB?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value AppLovin Corporation, Publicis Groupe S.A, Omnicom Group, Focus Media Information Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TradeDoubler AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 6.08, calculated fair value kr 11.63 (+91%), Quality Score 47/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TRAD calculated?
We run TradeDoubler AB through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 11.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. TradeDoubler AB currently trades 48 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TradeDoubler AB (TRAD)?
The latest price we hold is from Aug 13, 2026 and stands at kr 6.08. Our model-based fair value is kr 11.63, about +91% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TradeDoubler AB right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 8.79). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of TradeDoubler AB
How large is the market capitalisation of TradeDoubler AB (TRAD)?
The market capitalisation of TradeDoubler AB is 368M SEK (≈ $36.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TradeDoubler AB (TRAD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TradeDoubler AB is 0.17 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TradeDoubler AB (TRAD)?
Earnings per share at TradeDoubler AB are kr −0.2600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of TradeDoubler AB (TRAD)?
The net margin of TradeDoubler AB is 0.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TradeDoubler AB (TRAD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TradeDoubler AB is −4.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TradeDoubler AB (TRAD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TradeDoubler AB is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TradeDoubler AB (TRAD)?
The operating margin of TradeDoubler AB is 0.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TradeDoubler AB (TRAD)?
Revenue at TradeDoubler AB is growing +1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TradeDoubler AB (TRAD)?
Earnings per share at TradeDoubler AB are growing +303% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does TradeDoubler AB (TRAD) carry?
The net debt of TradeDoubler AB is 10.2M SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch TradeDoubler AB in the live analysis
One click puts TradeDoubler AB on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
