TradeDoubler AB (TRAD) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · SE · Market cap 382M SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +4.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 54% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 3.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 3.30 – kr 8.22 · fair‑value band kr 2.30 – kr 3.86 · the kr 6.58 price screens above the kr 3.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
TradeDoubler AB (TRAD) currently trades at kr 6.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 3.03, implying the stock looks roughly 53.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, TradeDoubler AB generated revenue of 2.2B SEK at a net margin of -0.7%. Revenue grew 1.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -4.1%. Net debt stands at 10.2M SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 2.30 (bear case) to kr 3.86 (bull case); at kr 6.58, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -1% fair-value upside, at -54%, TRAD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (kr 18.10) versus Earnings-Based (kr 0.2800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
TradeDoubler AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides performance marketing and technology solutions for publishers and advertisers in Europe. The company offers affiliate marketing network solutions; white-label partner management platform to manage and run affiliate networks; campaign management solutions; and business intelligence solutions.
Full company description
TradeDoubler AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides performance marketing and technology solutions for publishers and advertisers in Europe. The company offers affiliate marketing network solutions; white-label partner management platform to manage and run affiliate networks; campaign management solutions; and business intelligence solutions. It also provides influencer marketing; mobile marketing to engage customers via mobile devices; app marketing; lead generation campaigns; partner marketing; and e-mail marketing solutions. In addition, the company offers C2C display advertising that promotes products and services to customers through e-commerce marketplaces and social media; CTV marketing that targets audiences via internet-connected TVs, smart TVs, and streaming services; and Metapic, an influencer network platform. It serves ecommerce companies, brands, agencies, and digital platforms. The company also operates in Germany, Switzerland, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Poland, Italy, Brazil, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Ireland. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden. Tradedoubler AB (publ) is a subsidiary of Reworld Media Société Anonyme.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TradeDoubler AB reported revenue of kr 2.2B in FY2025 versus kr 1.4B in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was kr 1.0M in FY2025, compounding −54.6%/yr from FY2021.
TRAD screens 54% overvalued. Compare with AppLovin Corporation →
Peer Group
Advertising Agencies · 199 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| AppLovin Corporation APP | $506.98 | $181.37 | -64% |
| Publicis Groupe S.A PUB | €87.16 | €146.36 | +68% |
| Omnicom Group OMC | $80.75 | $99.84 | +24% |
| Focus Media Information Technology Co 002027 | ¥5.00 | ¥4.08 | -18% |
| The Trade Desk, Inc TTD | $19.37 | $20.76 | +7% |
| BlueFocus Intelligent Communications Group 300058 | ¥13.81 | ¥1.50 | -89% |
| JCDecaux SE DEC | €21.28 | €20.99 | -1% |
| WPP plc WPP | $18.13 | $18.56 | +2% |
| Easy Click Worldwide Network Technology Co 301171 | ¥28.85 | ¥5.62 | -81% |
| Mobvista Inc 1860 | HK$11.15 | HK$6.43 | -42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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