Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Transrail Lighting Limited ₹653, price ₹475, upside +37.5%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
21‑month range ₹404.90 – ₹799.57 · fair‑value band ₹473.46 – ₹1,024 · the ₹474.90 price screens below the ₹653.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Transrail Lighting Limited, an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) company, engages in the designing, manufacturing, testing, installation, and supply of galvanized steel structures and conductors for power transmission and distribution in India and internationally.
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Transrail Lighting Limited, an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) company, engages in the designing, manufacturing, testing, installation, and supply of galvanized steel structures and conductors for power transmission and distribution in India and internationally. The company also provides EPC for civil construction, such as bridges, tunnels, elevated roads, and cooling towers; solutions for solar renewable projects including Solar plant, BESS, Pooling substations, and Grid connectivity manufacturer, supply, installation, testing, and commissioning service for poles and lighting; and overhead electrification, signaling and telecommunication services, earthwork, track linking, and other composite work for railway. It serves public sector undertakings, governmental authorities, and private companies. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India. Transrail Lighting Limited operates as a subsidiary of Ajanma Holdings Private Limited.
Stock analysis
Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL) currently trades at ₹474.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹653.16, implying the stock looks roughly 27.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹1,090 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹474.90 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹113.85, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹473.46 (bear) to ₹1,024 (bull), the price of ₹474.90 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Transrail Lighting Limited reported revenue of ₹67.8B in FY2026 versus ₹22.8B in FY2022, a compound +31.3%/yr. Reported net income was ₹4.0B in FY2026, compounding +58.0%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap ₹63.8B (≈ $662M) · P/E ratio 15.8 · P/S ratio 0.94 · EPS (TTM) ₹30.01 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 6.0% · Return on equity 19.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 38%, TRANSRAILL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹473.46Fair Value ₹653.16Bull ₹1,024
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹14.27 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+30.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+62.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+62.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 11%
2026 sits 73% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.9% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 789 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside+37.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)5.9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)10.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Is Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹653.16 versus a price of ₹474.90, about +38% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TRANSRAILL?
Our model-based fair value for Transrail Lighting Limited is ₹653.16 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹474.90.
What is the quality score of TRANSRAILL?
Transrail Lighting Limited has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹653.16 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹473.46, optimistic scenario ₹1,024. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Transrail Lighting Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹653.16, about +38% upside versus a price of ₹474.90 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹473.46, optimistic scenario ₹1,024. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL)?
Transrail Lighting Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹68.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Transrail Lighting Limited pay a dividend?
Transrail Lighting Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.42% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Transrail Lighting Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +15.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +26.0 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TRANSRAILL use?
Our models discount Transrail Lighting Limited at 13.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Transrail Lighting Limited that is +15.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Transrail Lighting Limited grew +26.0 % a year. The price currently implies +15.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Transrail Lighting Limited (+15.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.18 %: that much free cash flow Transrail Lighting Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Transrail Lighting Limited it is ₹653.16 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of ₹474.90. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Transrail Lighting Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, TRANSRAILL trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹474.90, fair value ₹653.16, a gap of about +38% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TRANSRAILL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹474.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹653.16). For Transrail Lighting Limited the two are ₹178.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Transrail Lighting Limited worth?
The market values Transrail Lighting Limited at about ₹63.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is ₹474.90; our models calculate a fair value of ₹653.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRANSRAILL?
Our models span a range for Transrail Lighting Limited: cautious scenario ₹473.46, base ₹653.16, optimistic ₹1,024 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price ₹474.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TRANSRAILL?
Transrail Lighting Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.8 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹653.16 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.8, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 7.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Transrail Lighting Limited (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 19.4%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TRANSRAILL from its 52-week high?
Transrail Lighting Limited trades at ₹474.90, about 37% below its 52-week high of ₹755.37 and 17% above the low of ₹404.90 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹653.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Transrail Lighting Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Transrail Lighting Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price ₹474.90, calculated fair value ₹653.16 (+38%), Quality Score 54/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TRANSRAILL calculated?
We run Transrail Lighting Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹653.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Transrail Lighting Limited currently trades 27 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹474.90. Our model-based fair value is ₹653.16, about +38% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Transrail Lighting Limited right now?
Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (₹473.46 to ₹1,024) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Transrail Lighting Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL)?
The market capitalisation of Transrail Lighting Limited is ₹63.8B (≈ $662M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Transrail Lighting Limited is 0.94 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL)?
Earnings per share at Transrail Lighting Limited are ₹30.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL)?
The dividend yield of Transrail Lighting Limited is 0.4% (payout 6.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL)?
The net margin of Transrail Lighting Limited is 6.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Transrail Lighting Limited is 19.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Transrail Lighting Limited is 9.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL)?
The operating margin of Transrail Lighting Limited is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL)?
Revenue at Transrail Lighting Limited is growing +4.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +30.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL)?
Earnings per share at Transrail Lighting Limited are growing +2.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Transrail Lighting Limited (TRANSRAILL) carry?
The net debt of Transrail Lighting Limited is ₹2.7B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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