Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. PLN 3.15, price PLN 3.50, upside -9.9%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Trakcja S.A. operates in the infrastructure and energy construction sector in Poland and internationally.
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Trakcja S.A. operates in the infrastructure and energy construction sector in Poland and internationally. The company designs road and railway infrastructure elements and building structures; and constructs drainage, traction networks and power supply systems, cable and overhead power lines, engineering facilities, roads and highways, and utility infrastructure. It is also involved in design, assembly, and delivery of equipment; supplies specialized software; provision of assembly, commissioning, warranty, and post-warranty service for remote control of all electric traction power supply devices and auxiliary systems, such as platform lighting and electric turnout heating; and production of equipment, accessories, and construction materials. In addition, the company engages in the construction of tracks and overhead lines, bridges, viaducts, tunnels, urban infrastructure, and public utility buildings and buildings related to rail vehicle operation; provision of electric power and environmental engineering, and track equipment and machinery services; production of asphalt concrete, bitumen emulsions, including polymer-modified ones, concrete, concrete products; mining and processing of building materials; and equipment rental activities. Trakcja S.A. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland.
Stock analysis
Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK) currently trades at 3.50 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3.15 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 11.0% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 5.14 PLN per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the 3.50 PLN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 0.6600 PLN, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 2.44 PLN (bear) to 3.94 PLN (bull), the price of 3.50 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Trakcja PRKiI S.A. reported revenue of 2.2B PLN in FY2025 versus 1.4B PLN in FY2021, a compound +12.0%/yr. Reported net income was 81.4M PLN in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.6B PLN (≈ $420M) · P/E ratio 18.4 · P/S ratio 0.67 · EPS (TTM) 0.1900 PLN · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 20.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.4% · Operating margin −1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −10%, TRK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 2.44 PLNFair Value 3.15 PLNBull 3.94 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1390 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7% → 6%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 13.9%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 839 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−10% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Is Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3.15 PLN versus a price of 3.50 PLN, about −10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TRK?
Our model-based fair value for Trakcja PRKiI S.A. is 3.15 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 3.50 PLN.
What is the quality score of TRK?
Trakcja PRKiI S.A. has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3.15 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2.44 PLN, optimistic scenario 3.94 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Trakcja PRKiI S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3.15 PLN, about −10% upside versus a price of 3.50 PLN (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 2.44 PLN, optimistic scenario 3.94 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK)?
Trakcja PRKiI S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.3B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Trakcja PRKiI S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by -1.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TRK use?
Our models discount Trakcja PRKiI S.A. at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.48, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Trakcja PRKiI S.A. that is -1.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Trakcja PRKiI S.A. grew +10.9 % a year. The price currently implies -1.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (-1.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.40 %: that much free cash flow Trakcja PRKiI S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Trakcja PRKiI S.A. it is 3.15 PLN per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 3.50 PLN. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Trakcja PRKiI S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TRK trades above its calculated fair value: price 3.50 PLN, fair value 3.15 PLN, a gap of about −10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TRK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (3.50 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3.15 PLN). For Trakcja PRKiI S.A. the two are 0.3460 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Trakcja PRKiI S.A. worth?
The market values Trakcja PRKiI S.A. at about 1.6B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 3.50 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 3.15 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRK?
Our models span a range for Trakcja PRKiI S.A.: cautious scenario 2.44 PLN, base 3.15 PLN, optimistic 3.94 PLN per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 3.50 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TRK?
Trakcja PRKiI S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 3.15 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 0.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 20.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TRK from its 52-week high?
Trakcja PRKiI S.A. trades at 3.50 PLN, about 30% below its 52-week high of 5.00 PLN and 40% above the low of 2.50 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3.15 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Trakcja PRKiI S.A.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Trakcja PRKiI S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 3.50 PLN, calculated fair value 3.15 PLN (−10%), Quality Score 46/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TRK calculated?
We run Trakcja PRKiI S.A. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 3.15 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Trakcja PRKiI S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 3.50 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 3.15 PLN, about −10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Trakcja PRKiI S.A. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK) come from?
Earnings per share at Trakcja PRKiI S.A. grew −17.9 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −14.8 %, EBIT margin −2.5 %, tax rate +2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Trakcja PRKiI S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK)?
The market capitalisation of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. is 1.6B PLN (≈ $420M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. is 0.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK)?
Earnings per share at Trakcja PRKiI S.A. are 0.1900 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK)?
The net margin of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. is 3.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. is 20.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. is −0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK)?
The operating margin of Trakcja PRKiI S.A. is −1.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK)?
Revenue at Trakcja PRKiI S.A. is growing +7.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK)?
Earnings per share at Trakcja PRKiI S.A. are growing +58.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Trakcja PRKiI S.A. (TRK) hold?
Trakcja PRKiI S.A. holds more cash than debt, 164M PLN net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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