Trakcja S.A (TRK) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · PL · Market cap 1.6B PLN
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Share price +1.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 79% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.9095 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.38 PLN – 5.00 PLN · fair‑value band 0.5440 PLN – 0.9095 PLN · the 3.56 PLN price screens above the 0.7310 PLN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Trakcja S.A (TRK) currently trades at 3.56 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.7310 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 79.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Trakcja S.A generated revenue of 2.2B PLN at a net margin of 3.6%. Revenue grew 1.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 164M PLN. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 0.5440 PLN (bear case) to 0.9095 PLN (bull case); at 3.56 PLN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -79%, TRK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (4.96 PLN) versus Dividend Discount (0.1400 PLN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Trakcja S.A. operates in the infrastructure and energy construction sector in Poland and internationally. The company designs road and railway infrastructure elements and building structures; and constructs drainage, traction networks and power supply systems, cable and overhead power lines, engineering facilities, roads and highways, and utility …
Full company description
Trakcja S.A. operates in the infrastructure and energy construction sector in Poland and internationally. The company designs road and railway infrastructure elements and building structures; and constructs drainage, traction networks and power supply systems, cable and overhead power lines, engineering facilities, roads and highways, and utility infrastructure. It is also involved in design, assembly, and delivery of equipment; supplies specialized software; provision of assembly, commissioning, warranty, and post-warranty service for remote control of all electric traction power supply devices and auxiliary systems, such as platform lighting and electric turnout heating; and production of equipment, accessories, and construction materials. In addition, the company engages in the construction of tracks and overhead lines, bridges, viaducts, tunnels, urban infrastructure, and public utility buildings and buildings related to rail vehicle operation; provision of electric power and environmental engineering, and track equipment and machinery services; production of asphalt concrete, bitumen emulsions, including polymer-modified ones, concrete, concrete products; mining and processing of building materials; and equipment rental activities. Trakcja S.A. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Trakcja S.A reported revenue of 2.2B PLN in FY2025 versus 1.4B PLN in FY2021, a compound +12.0%/yr. Reported net income was 81.4M PLN in FY2025.
of which total revenue +4.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −19.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TRK screens 79% overvalued. Compare with Larsen & Toubro Limited →
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 839 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹3,815 | ₹1,994 | -48% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 346,000 KRW | 268,779 KRW | -22% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 | 99,000 KRW | 63,993 KRW | -35% |
| United Integrated Services Co 2404 | 1,250 TWD | 925.62 TWD | -26% |
| Samsung E&A Co 028050 | 42,550 KRW | 44,840 KRW | +5% |
| Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL | ₹232.67 | ₹61.46 | -74% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 | 16,240 KRW | 6,507 KRW | -60% |
| NBCC (India) Limited NBCC | ₹96.32 | ₹48.22 | -50% |
| Cemindia Projects Limited CEMPRO | ₹1,330 | ₹730.69 | -45% |
| KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 | 92,700 KRW | 20,172 KRW | -78% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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