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Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Tusimple Holdings Inc $0.47, price $0.17, upside +176.5%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · US · ISIN US90089L1089

TH Tusimple Holdings Inc logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Tusimple Holdings Inc

TSPH · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $0.4700 · Strongly undervalued (+176%)
!Quality 38/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −44.6 %/yr)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (3/7)
!Narrow moat 3/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$71.24 $0.1400 Fair Value $0.4700 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.1400 – $71.24 · fair‑value band $0.3100 – $0.5900 · the $0.1700 price screens below the $0.4700 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

CreateAI Holdings Inc. operates as an applied artificial intelligence company in the United States and the Asia Pacific. It engages in the provision of AI solutions primarily for autonomous driving; and generative AI for video game and anime production. The company was formerly known as TuSimple Holdings Inc. and changed its name to CreateAI Holdings Inc.

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CreateAI Holdings Inc. operates as an applied artificial intelligence company in the United States and the Asia Pacific. It engages in the provision of AI solutions primarily for autonomous driving; and generative AI for video game and anime production. The company was formerly known as TuSimple Holdings Inc. and changed its name to CreateAI Holdings Inc. in December 2024. CreateAI Holdings Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

Stock analysis

Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH) currently trades at $0.1700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4700, implying the stock looks roughly 63.8% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.3100 (bear) to $0.5900 (bull), the price of $0.1700 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Tusimple Holdings Inc reported revenue of $96.0K in FY2025 versus $1.8M in FY2020, a compound −44.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$88.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $61.6M · EPS (TTM) $−1.14 · Return on equity −33.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −45.1% · Operating margin −89,065% · Revenue (TTM) $96.0K · Free cash flow −$263M · Net cash $119M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 75% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at 176%, TSPH screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.3100 Fair Value $0.4700 Bull $0.5900
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $0.3500 $0.4700 $0.7100 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.3500 $0.4700 $0.7100 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 10

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 27
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 3
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 54
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−78.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−44.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−9,444.6% (2020) → −123,599.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 721 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/6 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +177% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −19% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.02× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.39× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 38
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 30

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SAP SE SAP €184.18 €172.46 −6%
Salesforce, Inc CRM $238.22 $342.73 +44%
Shopify Inc SHOP $145.16 $64.36 −56%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $137.78 $151.56 +10%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $69.22 $103.69 +50%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $309.09 $225.14 −27%
Snowflake Inc SNOW $334.81 $75.08 −78%
Datadog, Inc DDOG $251.49 $32.92 −87%
Adobe Inc ADBE $238.25 $454.04 +91%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $263.68 $177.51 −33%

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Tusimple Holdings Inc · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tusimple Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TSPH

Frequently asked questions

Is Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.4700 versus a price of $0.1700, about +176% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TSPH?
Our model-based fair value for Tusimple Holdings Inc is $0.4700 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.1700.
What is the quality score of TSPH?
Tusimple Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.4700 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3100, optimistic scenario $0.5900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tusimple Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.4700, about +176% upside versus a price of $0.1700 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.3100, optimistic scenario $0.5900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH)?
Tusimple Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $96.0K (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tusimple Holdings Inc it is $0.4700 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $0.1700. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tusimple Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TSPH trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.1700, fair value $0.4700, a gap of about +176% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TSPH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.1700); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4700). For Tusimple Holdings Inc the two are $0.3000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tusimple Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Tusimple Holdings Inc at about $61.6M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $0.1700; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TSPH?
Our models span a range for Tusimple Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $0.3100, base $0.4700, optimistic $0.5900 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $0.1700). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tusimple Holdings Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −33.3%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TSPH from its 52-week high?
Tusimple Holdings Inc trades at $0.1700, about 75% below its 52-week high of $0.6800 and 21% above the low of $0.1400 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.4700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tusimple Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tusimple Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $0.1700, calculated fair value $0.4700 (+176%), Quality Score 38/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TSPH calculated?
We run Tusimple Holdings Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.4700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Tusimple Holdings Inc currently trades 176 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $0.1700. Our model-based fair value is $0.4700, about +176% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tusimple Holdings Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.3100). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.3100 to $0.5900) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Tusimple Holdings Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH)?
The market capitalisation of Tusimple Holdings Inc is $61.6M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH)?
Earnings per share at Tusimple Holdings Inc are $−1.14. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tusimple Holdings Inc is −33.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tusimple Holdings Inc is −45.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH)?
The operating margin of Tusimple Holdings Inc is −89,065% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much free cash flow does Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH) generate?
The free cash flow of Tusimple Holdings Inc is −$263M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH) hold?
Tusimple Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, $119M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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