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Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tusimple Holdings Inc stock $0.09, price $0.16, that is 46.2% below the price, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Technology US

TH Tusimple Holdings Inc logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Tusimple Holdings Inc

TSPH · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 46% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Quality 47/100
Fair value $0.0861 · Strongly overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −44.6 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/7)
Narrow moat 3/100 · thin data
Thin data
Estimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$50.00 $0.1350 Fair Value $0.0861 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.1350 – $50.00 · fair‑value band $0.0646 – $0.1076 · the $0.1600 price screens above the $0.0861 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

CreateAI Holdings Inc. operates as an applied artificial intelligence company in the United States and the Asia Pacific. It engages in the provision of AI solutions primarily for autonomous driving; and generative AI for video game and anime production.

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The company was formerly known as TuSimple Holdings Inc. and changed its name to CreateAI Holdings Inc. in December 2024. CreateAI Holdings Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

Stock analysis

Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH) currently trades at $0.1600, while our estimate is $0.0861, 46% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $0.0646 (bear) to $0.1076 (bull), the price of $0.1600 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Tusimple Holdings Inc reported revenue of $96.0K in FY2025 versus $6.3M in FY2021, a compound −64.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$88.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $38.6M Micro · EPS (TTM) $−0.3700 · Return on equity −33.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −45.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin −89,065% · Revenue (TTM) $96.0K · Free cash flow −$263M · Net cash $119M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 3 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 76% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at −46%, TSPH screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $0.0646 Fair Value $0.0861 Bull $0.1076
Price $0.1600 · Downside -46.2%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 33
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 75
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 27
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 10
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 2
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 54
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−78.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−44.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−9,444.6% (2020) → −123,599.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

TSPH screens overvalued: fair value 46% below the price. Compare with SAP SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 723 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside −46.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −43.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.02× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.25× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 40
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 9
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 28

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Adobe Inc ADBE $236.70 $463.72 +96% vs TSPH
Salesforce, Inc CRM $213.48 $342.73 +61% vs TSPH
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $70.05 $101.28 +45% vs TSPH
Intuit Inc INTU $340.44 $459.14 +35% vs TSPH
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $99.61 $112.17 +13% vs TSPH
SAP SE SAP €209.95 €173.59 −17% vs TSPH
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $331.64 $225.48 −32% vs TSPH
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $305.44 $150.40 −51% vs TSPH
Shopify Inc SHOP $146.61 $64.96 −56% vs TSPH
Snowflake Inc SNOW $295.76 $73.81 −75% vs TSPH

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Tusimple Holdings Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tusimple Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TSPH

Frequently asked questions

Is Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $0.0861 versus a price of $0.1600, about 46% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TSPH?
Our estimate for Tusimple Holdings Inc is $0.0861 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.1600.
What is the quality score of TSPH?
Tusimple Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $0.0861 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $0.0646, optimistic scenario $0.1076. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Tusimple Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $0.0861, about 46% lower versus a price of $0.1600 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.0646, optimistic scenario $0.1076. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH)?
Tusimple Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $96.0K (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tusimple Holdings Inc it is $0.0861 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $0.1600.
Is Tusimple Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, TSPH trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.1600, fair value $0.0861, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TSPH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.1600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0861). For Tusimple Holdings Inc the two are $0.0739 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tusimple Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Tusimple Holdings Inc at about $38.6M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $0.1600; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0861 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TSPH?
Our models span a range for Tusimple Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $0.0646, base $0.0861, optimistic $0.1076 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $0.1600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tusimple Holdings Inc (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −33.3%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TSPH from its 52-week high?
Tusimple Holdings Inc trades at $0.1600, about 76% below its 52-week high of $0.6800 and 19% above the low of $0.1350 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0861 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tusimple Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tusimple Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $0.1600, calculated fair value $0.0861 (−46%), Quality Score 47/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Tusimple Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $0.1600. Our estimate is $0.0861, about 46% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tusimple Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.1076). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (47/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Tusimple Holdings Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH)?
The market capitalisation of Tusimple Holdings Inc is $38.6M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH)?
Earnings per share at Tusimple Holdings Inc are $−0.3700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tusimple Holdings Inc is −33.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tusimple Holdings Inc is −45.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH)?
The operating margin of Tusimple Holdings Inc is −89,065% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much free cash flow does Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH) generate?
The free cash flow of Tusimple Holdings Inc is −$263M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tusimple Holdings Inc (TSPH) hold?
Tusimple Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, $119M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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