Treasury Wine Estates Limited (TSRYF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $2.8B
Treasury Wine Estates Limited
TSRYF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from $4.75 to $4.83 (+1.7%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −11.4% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range $2.15 – $7.00 · fair‑value band $3.54 – $7.36 · the $3.10 price screens below the $4.83 fair value. As of Jul 21, 2026.
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Treasury Wine Estates Limited (TSRYF) currently trades at $3.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.83, implying the stock looks roughly 55.8% undervalued today. We read business quality at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Treasury Wine Estates Limited generated revenue of $2.7B at a net margin of -15.9%. Revenue declined 16.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -9.9%. Net debt stands at $1.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.54 (bear case) to $7.36 (bull case); at $3.10, the current price sits below that range. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 56%, TSRYF screens cheaper than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
Treasury Wine Estates Limited operates as a wine company in Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company engages in the viticulture and winemaking, as well as marketing, sale, and distribution of wine. Its wine portfolio includes brands, such as Penfolds, DAOU Vineyards, 19 Crimes, Drop of Sunshine, Frank Family Vineyards, Wolf Blass, St Hubert's The Stag, Matua, Lindeman's, Squealing Pig, Blossom Hill, Pepper Jack, Wynns, Seppelt, Beringer, Etude, Sterling Vineyards, Beaulieu Vineyard, Stags' Leap, Beringer Bros, and Castello di Gabbiano. The company also provides contract bottling services to third parties. In addition, it is involved in the sale of grape and bulk wine, as well as ownership and leasing of vineyards. The company markets and sells its products to distributors, wholesalers, retail chains, independent retailers, and on-premises outlets, as well as directly to consumers. Treasury Wine Estates Limited was founded in 1843 and is …
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Treasury Wine Estates Limited reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $2.6B in FY2021, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was $437M in FY2025, compounding +15.0%/yr from FY2021.
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Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,241 | ¥1,744 | +40% |
| Diageo plc DEOP34 | R$22.64 | R$4.04 | -82% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥81.08 | ¥53.06 | -35% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥113.61 | ¥248.18 | +118% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €63.42 | €63.28 | -0% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥86.88 | ¥95.88 | +10% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $27.25 | $23.85 | -12% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,338 | ₹430.08 | -68% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company TBVPF | $0.3358 | $0.5300 | +58% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥41.25 | ¥25.43 | -38% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.