Tree Island Steel Ltd (TWIRF) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $42.4M

Below-average quality, and screening another 26% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• The models converge in a tight band ($1.04 to $1.16), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
• Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.5879 – $4.05 · fair‑value band $1.04 – $1.16 · the $1.57 price screens above the $1.16 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Tree Island Steel Ltd (TWIRF) currently trades at $1.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.16, implying the stock looks roughly 26.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, Tree Island Steel Ltd generated revenue of $161M at a net margin of -4.0%. Revenue declined 19.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.8%. Net debt stands at $24.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $1.04 (bear case) to $1.16 (bull case); at $1.57, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -7% fair-value upside, at -26%, TWIRF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($2.80) versus Dividend Discount ($0.5600). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Tree Island Steel Ltd. manufactures and sells steel wire and fabricated steel wire products in Canada, the United States, and internationally.

Full company description

Tree Island Steel Ltd. manufactures and sells steel wire and fabricated steel wire products in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It offers industrial wire that include high and low carbon wires and black annealed wires; nails, such as bulk, packaged, and collated nails; agricultural products, including rolled fencing, fence panels, and agricultural wires; and welded wire reinforcement products. The company also provides woven and welded wires, corners, and accessories. It markets its products under the Tree Island, Halsteel, True Spec, K-Lath, TI Wire, Tough Strand, and ToughPanel brand names. The company was formerly known as Tree Island Wire Income Fund and changed its name to Tree Island Steel Ltd. in October 2012. Tree Island Steel Ltd. was founded in 1964 and is based in Richmond, Canada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tree Island Steel Ltd reported revenue of $171M in FY2025 versus $302M in FY2021, a compound −13.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$5.3M in FY2025.

TWIRF screens 26% overvalued. Compare with Tata Steel Limited →

Peer Group

Steel · 378 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.