Textron Inc (TXT) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $15.6B
Textron Inc
TXT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −4.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 12% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($49.57 to $115.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from $49.57 (bear) to $115.49 (bull), base $77.49. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 61/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $57.70 – $100.73 · fair‑value band $49.57 – $115.49 · the $87.89 price screens above the $77.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Textron Inc (TXT) currently trades at $87.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $77.49, implying the stock looks roughly 11.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Textron Inc generated revenue of $15.2B at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue grew 11.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.3%. Net debt stands at $2.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $49.57 (bear case) to $115.49 (bull case); at $87.89, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -55% fair-value upside, at -12%, TXT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($90.04) versus Dividend Discount ($1.38). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Textron Inc. operates in the aircraft, defense, industrial, and finance businesses worldwide. It operates in six segments: Textron Aviation, Bell, Textron Systems, Industrial, Textron eAviation, and Finance.
Full company description
Textron Inc. operates in the aircraft, defense, industrial, and finance businesses worldwide. It operates in six segments: Textron Aviation, Bell, Textron Systems, Industrial, Textron eAviation, and Finance. The Textron Aviation segment manufactures, sells, and services business jets, turboprop and piston engine aircraft, and military trainer and defense aircraft, as well as offers maintenance, inspection, and repair services; commercial parts; and advanced flight training devices. The Bell segment supplies military and commercial helicopters, tiltrotor aircraft, and related spare parts and services. The Textron Systems segment offers unmanned aircraft systems, electronic systems and solutions, advanced marine crafts, piston aircraft engines, live military air-to-air and air-to-ship training, weapons and related components, and armored and specialty vehicles. The Industrial segment offers blow-molded solutions, including conventional plastic fuel tanks and pressurized fuel tanks; plastic tanks for catalytic reduction systems and other fuel system components; lightweight and composite pentatonic battery systems for use in electric vehicles primarily to automobile original equipment manufacturers; and golf cars, off-road utility vehicles, powersports products, light transportation vehicles, aviation ground support equipment, professional turf-maintenance equipment, and turf-care vehicles to golf courses and resorts, government agencies and municipalities, consumers, outdoor enthusiasts, and commercial and industrial users. The Textron eAviation segment manufactures and sells light aircraft and gliders with electric and combustion engines; and provides other research and development initiatives related to sustainable aviation solutions. The Finance segment offers financing services to purchase new and pre-owned aviation aircraft and Bell helicopters. Textron Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Textron Inc reported revenue of $14.8B in FY2025 versus $12.4B in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was $921M in FY2025, compounding +5.4%/yr from FY2021.
TXT screens 12% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Textron (TXT) Stock Could Be 44% Cheap As Training Aircraft Orders Build
- Textron Inc (TXT) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Revenue Growth Amid Supply Chain Challenges
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $381.22 | $116.71 | -69% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.93 | $88.37 | -55% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €206.30 | €92.85 | -55% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $217.11 | $48.20 | -78% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥34.31 | ¥21.90 | -36% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 466,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -41% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 967,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -41% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 337.50 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -61% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 520.40 | kr 212.84 | -59% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 277.50 | kr 106.93 | -61% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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