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Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company (UBE) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · TH · Market cap 2.4B THB

UB Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company UBE · BK
Price0.5900 THB
Fair Value0.3600 THB
Upside-39.0%
Quality57/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -3.7% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.50% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
Narrow moat 19/100
Evidence: High Range 0.3600 THB – 0.3600 THB Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from 0.1800 THB to 0.3600 THB (+100.0%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +1.7% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 39% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.3600 THB). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

2.13 THB 0.4071 THB Fair Value 0.3600 THB Sep 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

58‑month range 0.4071 THB – 2.13 THB · the 0.5900 THB price screens above the 0.3600 THB fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company (UBE) currently trades at 0.5900 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.3600 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 39.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company generated revenue of 4.9B THB at a net margin of -3.7%. Revenue declined 19.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 488M THB. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 102% fair-value upside, at -39%, UBE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 2.93 THB 3.82 THB 5.34 THB 80
Rev-Margin DCF 1.23 THB 1.36 THB 1.57 THB 74
ROIC Compounder 0.1800 THB 0.1800 THB 0.1800 THB 72
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 2.82 THB 3.74 THB 5.46 THB 38
Owner Earnings 0.8000 THB 1.02 THB 1.43 THB 31
5Y Revenue Exit 1.23 THB 1.30 THB 1.40 THB 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 1.78 THB 2.25 THB 2.88 THB 41
10Y Revenue Exit 1.85 THB 1.98 THB 2.08 THB 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 2.18 THB 2.57 THB 2.96 THB 37
Earnings-Based
EPV 0.1800 THB 0.1800 THB 0.1800 THB 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 0.2600 THB 0.2800 THB 0.3200 THB 70
DDM Multi-Stage 0.2600 THB 0.3300 THB 0.4200 THB 61
Multiples
EV/EBIT 0.1800 THB 0.1900 THB 0.1900 THB 53
EV/EBITDA 1.25 THB 1.61 THB 1.97 THB 54
EV/Revenue 0.1800 THB 0.1800 THB 0.1900 THB 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 0.7300 THB 0.9800 THB 1.47 THB 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 2.93 THB 3.82 THB 5.34 THB 80
Rev-Margin DCF 1.23 THB 1.36 THB 1.57 THB 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 0.1800 THB 0.1800 THB 0.1800 THB 72

Widest divergence: DCF Models (1.98 THB) versus Earnings-Based (0.1800 THB). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 4.9B THB
Revenue growth (YoY) -19.2%
Net margin -3.7%
Return on equity -2.7%
Free cash flow 1.1B THB FY2025
Operating margin 1.2%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) -0.0500 THB
Dividend yield 2.5%
EPS growth (YoY) -59.0%
Net cash 488M THB FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 19
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 10
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 88
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 57
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 46
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes processed cassava products in Thailand, China, the United States, and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Tapioca Starch, Biogas, and Electricity; Ethanol; Restaurant Management and Investment Activities; and Others.

Full company description

Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes processed cassava products in Thailand, China, the United States, and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Tapioca Starch, Biogas, and Electricity; Ethanol; Restaurant Management and Investment Activities; and Others. It offers cassava-based ethanol, cassava starch, cassava flour, and other organic products, as well as by-products, including wastewater and cassava pulp; and ethanol products, such as fuel ethanol, industrial use ethanol, and alcohol, as well as hand sanitizer. It also engages in the provision of biogas; generation and sale of biogas and electricity from biogas and solar power system; franchise operation of food and beverage outlet; distribution of food ingredient, food, and beverage; and research and development of various agricultural products. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company reported revenue of 5.2B THB in FY2025 versus 7.0B THB in FY2021, a compound −7.1%/yr. Reported net income was −103M THB in FY2025.

Growth Quality 35/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
5.2B THB
Latest YoY
−19.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−10.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.2%
Avg. growth/yr (11Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.6%
Revenue −7.1%/yr
FY21 7.0B THB
FY22 7.2B THB
FY23 5.8B THB
FY24 6.5B THB
FY25 5.2B THB
Net income
FY21 148M THB
FY22 329M THB
FY23 −96.6M THB
FY24 253M THB
FY25 −103M THB

UBE screens 39% overvalued. Compare with Muyuan Foods Group →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UBE

Peer Group

Farm Products · 288 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside −39% · Below median
Return on assets -1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Revenue growth -19% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.03× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.02× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 25
FUTURE 0 · sector 20
PAST 0 · sector 17
HEALTH 98 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 50 · sector 38

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Muyuan Foods Group 002714 ¥40.90 ¥48.19 +18%
Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 ¥14.51 ¥12.08 -17%
Mowi ASA MOWI kr 188.40 kr 262.59 +39%
PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk, CPIN 3,120 IDR 7,076 IDR +127%
Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF 22.00 THB 55.71 THB +153%
PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk TAPG 1,540 IDR 3,105 IDR +102%
PT FAP Agri Tbk FAPA 7,300 IDR 7,463 IDR +2%
PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk JPFA 2,070 IDR 7,231 IDR +249%
Thaifoods Group TFGR 10.60 THB 23.53 THB +122%
PT Jhonlin Agro Raya Tbk JARR 1,845 IDR 610.80 IDR -67%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company (UBE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.3600 THB versus a price of 0.5900 THB, about −39% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UBE?
Our model-based fair value for Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company is 0.3600 THB (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 0.5900 THB.
What is the quality score of UBE?
Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company (UBE)?
Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.9B THB (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of UBE?
The net profit margin of Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company is about -3.7%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company pay a dividend?
Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.63% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 16, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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