Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL THB 0.44, price THB 0.59, upside -25.4%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes processed cassava products in Thailand, China, the United States, and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Tapioca Starch, Biogas, and Electricity; Ethanol; Restaurant Management and Investment Activities; and Others.
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Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes processed cassava products in Thailand, China, the United States, and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Tapioca Starch, Biogas, and Electricity; Ethanol; Restaurant Management and Investment Activities; and Others. It offers cassava-based ethanol, cassava starch, cassava flour, and other organic products, as well as by-products, including wastewater and cassava pulp; and ethanol products, such as fuel ethanol, industrial use ethanol, and alcohol, as well as hand sanitizer. It also engages in the provision of biogas; generation and sale of biogas and electricity from biogas and solar power system; franchise operation of food and beverage outlet; distribution of food ingredient, food, and beverage; and research and development of various agricultural products. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand.
Stock analysis
Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE) currently trades at 0.5900 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.4400 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 34.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 1.78 THB per share, and 10 of the 16 models we run sit above the 0.5900 THB price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 0.1800 THB, and 6 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.4168 THB (bear) to 0.4863 THB (bull), the price of 0.5900 THB sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL reported revenue of 5.2B THB in FY2025 versus 7.0B THB in FY2021, a compound −7.1%/yr. Reported net income was −103M THB in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.3B THB (≈ $69.3M) · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) −0.0500 THB · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin −2.0% · Return on equity −2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin 1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −25%, UBE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 0.4168 THBFair Value 0.4400 THBBull 0.4863 THB
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.35/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−19.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.5% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.4% (2020) → 0.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−35.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −35.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 296 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−28% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−19% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
P/S (TTM)0.02× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF0.1× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)51· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UBE
Frequently asked questions
Is Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.4400 THB versus a price of 0.5900 THB, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UBE?
Our model-based fair value for Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL is 0.4400 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 0.5900 THB.
What is the quality score of UBE?
Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.4400 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.4168 THB, optimistic scenario 0.4863 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.4400 THB, about −25% upside versus a price of 0.5900 THB (overvalued). Cautious scenario 0.4168 THB, optimistic scenario 0.4863 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.9B THB (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL pay a dividend?
Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL would have to grow free cash flow by -35.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UBE use?
Our models discount Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL at 14.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL that is -35.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL grew +3.2 % a year. The price currently implies -35.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (-35.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 47.84 %: that much free cash flow Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL it is 0.4400 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 0.5900 THB. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, UBE trades above its calculated fair value: price 0.5900 THB, fair value 0.4400 THB, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UBE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (0.5900 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.4400 THB). For Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL the two are 0.1500 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL worth?
The market values Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL at about 2.3B THB (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 0.5900 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 0.4400 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UBE?
Our models span a range for Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL: cautious scenario 0.4168 THB, base 0.4400 THB, optimistic 0.4863 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 0.5900 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −2.7%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UBE from its 52-week high?
Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL trades at 0.5900 THB, about 33% below its 52-week high of 0.8800 THB and 45% above the low of 0.4071 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.4400 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 0.5900 THB, calculated fair value 0.4400 THB (−25%), Quality Score 57/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UBE calculated?
We run Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.4400 THB, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 0.5900 THB. Our model-based fair value is 0.4400 THB, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.4863 THB). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL
How large is the market capitalisation of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
The market capitalisation of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL is 2.3B THB (≈ $69.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL is 0.49 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
Earnings per share at Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL are −0.0500 THB. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
The dividend yield of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL is 2.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
The net margin of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL is −2.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL is −2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
The operating margin of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
Revenue at Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL is growing −19.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
Earnings per share at Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL are growing −59.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE) hold?
Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL holds more cash than debt, 488M THB net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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