Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company (UBE) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · TH · Market cap 2.4B THB
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from 0.1800 THB to 0.3600 THB (+100.0%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +1.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 39% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.3600 THB). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range 0.4071 THB – 2.13 THB · the 0.5900 THB price screens above the 0.3600 THB fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company (UBE) currently trades at 0.5900 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.3600 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 39.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company generated revenue of 4.9B THB at a net margin of -3.7%. Revenue declined 19.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 488M THB. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 102% fair-value upside, at -39%, UBE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (1.98 THB) versus Earnings-Based (0.1800 THB). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes processed cassava products in Thailand, China, the United States, and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Tapioca Starch, Biogas, and Electricity; Ethanol; Restaurant Management and Investment Activities; and Others.
Full company description
Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes processed cassava products in Thailand, China, the United States, and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Tapioca Starch, Biogas, and Electricity; Ethanol; Restaurant Management and Investment Activities; and Others. It offers cassava-based ethanol, cassava starch, cassava flour, and other organic products, as well as by-products, including wastewater and cassava pulp; and ethanol products, such as fuel ethanol, industrial use ethanol, and alcohol, as well as hand sanitizer. It also engages in the provision of biogas; generation and sale of biogas and electricity from biogas and solar power system; franchise operation of food and beverage outlet; distribution of food ingredient, food, and beverage; and research and development of various agricultural products. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company reported revenue of 5.2B THB in FY2025 versus 7.0B THB in FY2021, a compound −7.1%/yr. Reported net income was −103M THB in FY2025.
UBE screens 39% overvalued. Compare with Muyuan Foods Group →
Peer Group
Farm Products · 288 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muyuan Foods Group 002714 | ¥40.90 | ¥48.19 | +18% |
| Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 | ¥14.51 | ¥12.08 | -17% |
| Mowi ASA MOWI | kr 188.40 | kr 262.59 | +39% |
| PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk, CPIN | 3,120 IDR | 7,076 IDR | +127% |
| Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF | 22.00 THB | 55.71 THB | +153% |
| PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk TAPG | 1,540 IDR | 3,105 IDR | +102% |
| PT FAP Agri Tbk FAPA | 7,300 IDR | 7,463 IDR | +2% |
| PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk JPFA | 2,070 IDR | 7,231 IDR | +249% |
| Thaifoods Group TFGR | 10.60 THB | 23.53 THB | +122% |
| PT Jhonlin Agro Raya Tbk JARR | 1,845 IDR | 610.80 IDR | -67% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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